Argentina

Is Reform Possible?

Mark Noonan38 Comments

Javier Milei was elected President of Argentina yesterday and the global Left is having a conniption fit, as per usual when someone not Left-approved gets in. There is much positive to be said about Milei as his proposals work out to a wholesale rejection of the Social Democratic order imposed around the world since WWII. He is saying everything a populist Right politician should say. And it will be a great thing if he’s able to carry out his reforms. The big question: will he?

Last year Italy surprisingly elected Georgia Meloni Prime Minister and the global Left also had a fit about her…but in her tenure illegal immigration to Italy has massively increased. This was the issue that brought her to power – it is what the people of Italy elected her to do: stop illegal immigration. It has increased. In other words, had Italy elected a Left-approved government, it would have been no different on this issue. The latest step she’s taken is to come to an agreement with Albania (which is not an EU member) to take in the migrants as they are processed. This is being slammed on the populist Right as a betrayal…mostly because it is. It is a concession that the people flooding from Africa to Europe have a right to do so and the only thing Europe can do is play around the edges and maybe stop some small number of them on one pretext or another and only after some sort of judicial review.

My bet is that after her election those people in the West who fund and organize the migrations (I have no proof of this: but penniless Third Worlders cannot cross thousands of miles without massive support…someone is backing the movement) put it into overdrive to put Meloni on the spot. This has worked. Her plan to send them to Albania won’t do a thing to stop the migrations, it just adds another step to the process.

Italy does have a Navy – a pretty modern one, too. Plenty of patrol craft can ply the waters between Libya and Italy to intercept the slow moving migrant ships and simply send them back to Libya. Just a few weeks of aggressive patrolling will put a lid on it. Nobody is going to make an effort to cross when the almost invariable result will be interception by the Italian Navy and return to Libya. They’ll find some other country to go to or go back to wherever in Africa they hail from. If there is a concern that some of them are genuine asylum seekers, then Italy could open up a consulate in, say, Benghazi protected by the Italian military just for processing asylum requests…with the asylum-seekers remaining in Libya under Italian protection until their case is heard. The Prime Minister of Italy controls the military; she could just order the Navy to do this. She didn’t. She just worked out a bogus plan to make it seem like the migrant crisis is being solved but which will do nothing to stop the migration.

Why did she opt for bamboozlement rather than a solution? Almost certainly because Italy wants EU cash. From what I’ve read, Italy is trying to get 90 billion Euros in aid…and EU aid always comes with strings attached. What we have here is the Ruling Class paying the piper and Meloni dancing to their tune. Such it always is, right? He who has the gold makes the rules. To be sure, Italy could cut itself off from the EU, engage in deep economic reforms – suffer a massive recession and then take about five years for the economy to recover. This would be the wise and patriotic thing to do and by telling the EU to get stuffed, Italy could also solve the migration crisis as the people of Italy demand. But there’s a catch: do that and all of the sudden the people will switch from wanting the migrants kicked out to wanting their EU-funded welfare checks. In other words, Meloni’s party would likely be wiped out at the next election if she did what was right for Italy. She should still do it…and if she were a true patriot, she would. But she’s in office and once someone gets in office their primary concern almost invariably becomes staying in office (especially with all the perks being in office provides these days – seriously, guys; look it up – those who get into office are coddled in luxuries that even kings of olden days couldn’t dream of).

And, so, now we’ll see how Milei does. Like a lot of populists he’s talked a great game. He has first rate proposals. But like all populists the global Ruling Class hates him and will do everything it can to undermine him. Right now, Argentina is pretty much an economic basket case – a century of Progressive policies have turned what was once a First World nation into a joke. It will take massive reforms at all levels to get Argentina out of its plight. If Milei is a true Argentinian patriot (as Nayib Bukele is a true El Salvadoran patriot) he’ll damn all the critics and just get the job done for his country. In other words, he won’t be worried about staying in office, but about saving his country. He’ll have a smile on his face as he contemplates near-certain defeat at the polls as he goes about saving his country. He’ll know that even if his people hate him for what he’s doing, he’s doing what is right and one day the people will understand that. Audacity is the key for any real reformer; to just press ahead…to move so fast and on so many levels that the critics are left in confusion…shouting in impotent rage about the last thing done while you’re already on to the next. I wish Milei well and I hope for a new Argentina.

But make no mistake about it, the chances that Milei will win are low. He’s now going to be in office and from the first minute he’ll be submerged in all those temptations. The global Left will be working behind the scenes to make economic life even harder for Argentina. Just about forget any foreign loans unless you’re willing to torpedo your own reforms. Make no mistake about it: this can be done. Argentina is a nation slopping over with wealth – large territory, huge natural resources, educated population. In just a few years the whole thing can be turned around and real prosperity set in. It is getting through those few years that are the trouble…that usually cause populist reformers to fail.

For reference, see what was done to Trump. Pretty much ever lever of power around the world was turned against him – including and especially those Constitutionally under Trump’s control. Rely on it that the bureaucracy of Argentina – sitting fat on the government – will do everything they can to save their own bacon. But on the plus side, Milei is saying his priority is to get rid of the bureaucracies. That might be the key – if you get rid of those within your own government who are against you then your reforms can proceed unimpeded. If Milei is able to pull it off, it will only be because he got rid of his fiercest enemies: his own government. If so then the lesson for us should we in in 2024 is that job one is simply to fire everyone. To get rid of them; they can whine and complain about it all they want, but they won’t have any levers of power to use against us.

We’ll see, won’t we?

Open Thread

Mark Noonan29 Comments

I guess the city of Bakhmut, Ukraine has fallen and the Russians are hailing their victory while the Ukrainians are saying they never really wanted to hold it. The bottom line, for me, is that Russia has definitely resumed advancing and the Ukrainians aren’t able to stop it so far. No breakthrough, but a war of attrition where the Russians are just grinding the Ukrainians down…though such eventually does lead to a breakthrough as the weaker side can never sustain this kind of fight forever. Meanwhile, everyone on the Ukraine side gets ever more hysterical about how we have to support Ukraine. I think it is time for negotiations. Unless Zelensky has something big up his sleeve, offensive-wise, better to quit now rather than wait until there’s nothing left between the Russians and Kiev.

Argentina has ripped up its Falklands agreement with Britain and is demanding negotiations over sovereignty. This is what I mean about just staying the heck out of foreign problems: most of them are stupid. The bottom line is that whatever theoretical legal right Argentina received from Spain to the Islands, there never was a permanent, indigenous population of the Falklands until the Brits showed up in the 1830’s. The people who live there going back nearly two centuries have never had any connection to Argentina. They consider themselves British. The speak English. When asked in a plebiscite what they preferred, more than 98% voted to stay under British rule. But Argentina likes to get all fussy about it – and they are getting fussy about it shortly after HMS Queen Elizabeth became operational which means if they decide to start shooting over it, they’ll lose (the Royal Navy is a shadow of her formal self, but most of Argentina’s navy is laid up in port; and they don’t have a naval air arm to speak of). Amazing how stupid people can be, and for all the wrong reasons.

Kellyanne and George Conway have called it quits – which is kinda sad but very understandable. George acted like an a** during the Trump years and Kellyanne has allowed herself to be squired around by the likes of Cuomo recently. Really its all rather pathetic.

The Left is still trying to sell the notion that the Second Amendment only secured a right to bear arms to the Militia, which is now the National Guard. Of course it is absurd, but lots of people are fierce in their faith about the Militia having the right. It isn’t just propaganda doing this – it is propaganda directed a population which is barely literate and almost entirely ignorant of American history. We can’t get control of the schools fast enough. This is a terrible problem and it will harm us politically…but if we control the schools it is literally just a few years before the problem is fixed.

RDS has put out a video which is “I’m running” without saying the actual words, “I’m running”.

I’m increasingly positive that the Left overstepped on the trans issue – and it is women leading the backlash. Which is proper as women are being erased to accommodate trans women. It is very irritating, isn’t it? What is clearly a man winning women’s sporting contests, Hershey and other woke corporations using trans women as spokespeople for women’s issues. I mean, seriously: who thought this would be a good idea? Oh, yeah: Progressives did. Never forget that as ruthless and cruel as they are, they are also monumentally stupid.

Obama: Can’t Even Do Stupid Right

Mark Noonan76 Comments

Geesh – from the Telegraph:

President Obama erred during a speech at the Summit of the Americas in Cartagena, Colombia, when attempting to call the disputed archipelago by its Spanish name.

Instead of saying Malvinas, however, Mr Obama referred to the islands as the Maldives, a group of 26 atolls off that lie off the South coast of India…

Even calling them the “Malvinas” is dumb – that is what Argentine leaders attempting to distract their people call them; doing so in order to pretend that Argentina ever had a legitimate claim to the Falkland Islands.  But if you’re going to kowtow to hack politicians on the make, then at least use the right word, Mr. President.

Just to set the record straight – the Brits have been continuously settled in the Falklands since 1833 – or, to put it in to perspective, about 15 years longer than Americans have been continuously in Nevada.  If Argentina owns the Falklands, then Mexico owns Nevada.  The population of the islands is a bit more than 3,000.  These people mind their own business, make a fairly decent life in their harsh land and express absolutely zero desire to come under Argentine rule.  You have to be one of two things to hold that Argentina should be in control:  an idiot, or a hack politician.  Given Obama’s blunder on the name of the islands, I’d have to plunk down for “idiot”.

This is especially true now that the hacks in Argentina have been sabre-rattling over the islands – threatening a repeat of  Argentina’s 1982 invasion.  For Obama to go along with Argentine pretensions  – which signal that if they attack, we won’t do anything – only helps bring forward a blood letting.  Which, in turn, puts “idiot” more and more indelibly in the mind.