Supreme Court

Kavanaugh Must Be Confirmed

Mark Noonan13 Comments

I don’t think I’ve ever been made so angry by political events. At least in the case of Moore they had the yearbook: thin, but at least it was a contemporary document which verified that Moore had some contact with his accuser. All we’ve got in Kavanaugh’s case is a letter which doesn’t even state clearly when and where it happened. And, now, word is his accuser is pushing back against the idea of testifying before the Senate and her lawyer is claiming the accuser has no burden of proof. I’d say this was Soviet-style slandering, but the Soviets weren’t this dishonorable.

Kavanaugh completely denies any such event took place – not just with the accuser, but at all. The other person claimed to be there also denies it happened. There is no way to actually investigate the matter because we don’t know when and where it happened – which is just terribly convenient for the accuser because if she gave a specific date, then Kavanaugh might be able to prove he was elsewhere at the time. Rather astonishing that such a searing event in her life doesn’t come with the date within a week of the event and a place at least within a few blocks of where it might have happened.

Meanwhile, some – but not all – of the Never Trumpers are all “this is serious and we have to listen”. As if that is what the Democrats want. They don’t want that: they want Kavanaugh to be axed. And, then, if they win the Senate, they’ll just keep that seat vacant for two years hoping that a Democrat wins in 2020. This is all about the exercise of raw, political power. The Democrats want to win – and this is their last, desperate gambit to do that. If we let them win, then we’re cooked. If mere accusation is enough to kill Kavanaugh’s nomination, then no one is safe…and very many people will refuse to even get involved in politics for fear that someone will just make something up about them.

The only way we win this is to put Kavanaugh on the Court – no other outcome works. If we fail, we’re doomed. They’ll just keep doing this and keep doing this and keep doing this until the only “dissenting” voices in politics are those who will never actually challenge the left. This is the hill we must fight on: there is no tomorrow. We either win and get Kavanaugh on the Court, or our political future is finished.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan46 Comments

Today is Supreme Court Justice-mageddon! President Trump has said he’ll announce his nominee at 9pm, Eastern. As for me, I’m hoping for Amy Barrett for the exact reason many Conservatives want Trump to shy away: I want the Culture War battle that would ensue. I want, that is, Democrats to out themselves as anti-Catholic bigots. Even if we lose the nominee, it would still work to our long-term electoral advantage.

Mitch McConnell was harassed outside a restaurant by some leftwing nitwits. I wonder if these guys realize that one day, they’re going to do this to someone who will kick their ass? You wouldn’t. I wouldn’t. But I know people who just don’t take this from anyone. It’ll be interesting to see how that will play out.

Appears the betting line on Trump getting a Nobel Peace Prize is 4 to 1. Only people with better odds are the leaders of the two Koreas.

The MSM is trying to gin up a story about how Trump is kicking foreigners out of the military – all it really amounted to was a small number of foreign recruits failed to meet the necessary requirements. This sort of thing is starting to be an in-kind donation to Trump’s 2020 re-election effort. Guys, if you want to stop being called Fake News, maybe stop pushing Fake News? Just spitballin’ here…

I’ve seen the #WalkAway hashtag on Twitter now for about 10 days – the posts are all the story of how a Democrat walked away from that party. Very often, it is Afican-American or other core constituencies of the Democrat party making these statements. Democrats are downplaying it – but the fear has got to be there. Obama got 93% of the black vote in 2012; Hillary got 88% of it: and it was 88% of a significantly smaller number of voters as many African-Americans just stayed home. At 88% of the vote, Hillary still lost, but still could have won…imagine what would happen if it was 85%? Or even 80%? Keep in mind, that is still a crushing victory among that demographic…but at 85%, Democrats likely have no path to 270 electoral votes. And if that vote holds down-ballot, then Democrats would be crushed in the House, as well. We’ll see how it comes out – our first clue will be the votes this November. If there is a significant uptick in GOP support among African-Americans, then the game is up for the Democrats: they’ll be out of power for a generation.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan5 Comments

Democrats have started a pre-emptive campaign against possible Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett. Their choice of tactic seems to be vicious, anti-Catholic bigotry. I don’t think this will work out for them as well as they think.

Their real worry is that on the matter of jurisprudence, Barrett seems unimpressed with the legal reasoning behind Roe and other such decisions. This is natural as the reasoning was specious, at best. Democrats are trying to fire up their base – and scare off a few hand-wringing GOP Senators – by raising the specter of a ban on abortion. Thing is, they are lying, as usual. Even if Roe is overturned entirely (doubtful: Justices like to keep precedent going), all it would do is return the issue to the States, or to the people (you know, where the 10th Amendment left it). My bet is that all but a few States would keep it legal, at least in the first trimester. I’d still be pleased by this because any move towards ending it is a good thing…but we’re a long, long way from any sort of political coalition which would outright ban abortion nationwide. More than likely, all any future Court will do, however, is allow States to impose various regulatory requirements on abortion – bans on late-term abortions; requirements for fully informed consent; that sort of thing.

The Experts are still uniformly predicting a good mid-term for the Democrats – from moderate Democrat gains to a gigantic, Democrat wave. They’ve got their polls and analysis of the off-year elections we’ve had coupled with historic trends. It is all very impressive…but, I just don’t see it. I’m fully prepared to be absolutely wrong, but I just don’t see it happening. All I can say is that primary turnout doesn’t indicate a massively large and enthusiastic Democrat base; it also doesn’t indicate a complacent or dispirited GOP base. The RNC is awash in money while the DNC is effectively broke. True, the Democrat House and Senate campaign committees are in good shape, but so are the GOP committees…on balance, the amount of money the RNC has to throw at races places the money advantage squarely with the GOP…and it makes me wonder: if the GOP is doomed and dispirited and Democrats are all fired up, why this money gap? I’ve read stories claiming big GOP donors are done with Trump’s GOP…and I believe them; but, still, the GOP has more money, overall. Where’s it coming from? Is it from people who didn’t used to be GOP donors, thus indicating that there’s a new infusion of supporters for the GOP? Is the DNC being broke an indicator that many long-term Democrats are moving away from the Democrats? Time will tell – personally, I think the GOP will win in November, perhaps win big. But, we can really only wait and see.

Mexico has elected an idiot President in a landslide. He’s like a caricature of the Third World socialist we’re all familiar with…everything is the fault of American Imperialism and if he’s just given full power, everyone will get rich. I get why Mexicans voted for him: if you think our Ruling Class is corrupt and out of touch, then let’s just say that compared to Mexico’s, our nitwits are verily reincarnations of Cincinnatus. For 100 years, Mexico has been ruled by corrupt politicians. Frustration led to the election of the one guy who seemed to be against it – except that some of his team are clearly involved in it. I predict utter disaster for Mexico…the good news it that Mexico’s Constitution says a person can only serve one term as President. The bad news is that leftists like this guy never pay much attention to what a Constitution says. Now is really the time to build the wall.

Don Surber has been keeping track of those who crossed Trump and then had their lives go south. It is a long list.

Robert Stacy McCain’s brother is having medical and insurance troubles – if you can spare a bit, maybe kick in a couple bucks?

Supreme Court, Etc Open Thread

Mark Noonan31 Comments

Never thought a Supreme Court vacancy could make so many people lose it – but if you were on Twitter yesterday, you watched the most epic leftwing meltdown, ever. Not excluding election night, 2016. However, as they say, there’s more! Or, at least, there may well be more…I saw a blurb on a recent poll showing that Millenial men have swung 23 points to the GOP since 2016…something like a 12 point Democrat advantage has now become an 11 point GOP advantage. If this holds true, then 2018 (and 2020) won’t be like anyone is expecting.

Another bit of polling supposedly shows a big jump in Latino support for Trump – which isn’t actually surprising. I think that Democrat Latino support is mostly concentrated among Latinos who are overtly Progressive plus immigrants/children of immigrants. By the time you get to the grandchildren of immigrants, you’re just dealing with everyday, average Americans for the most part. And such people have other concerns on their minds than what happens to illegal immigrants at the border.

Getting back to the vacancy: people who know seem to believe that any of the possible Justices on Trump’s list would be an excellent, strict Constitutionalist on the Court. You can’t know for certain, naturally: you never know when the itch for a legacy ruling will get hold of a judge. But, I think we can rely on it there’s a very good chance that whomever replaces Kennedy won’t have his talent for specious reasoning when it is time to ratify whatever the Progs are whining about in social issues (on things like the First and Second Amendments, on the other hand, Kennedy was pretty solid). The Democrats are all in a tizzy about losing Kennedy’s near-certain vote in favor of their social policy changes, but the real crisis will hit them when Ginsburg leaves the Court – which she is bound to do voluntarily or perforce before too many more years have passed. If she makes it to 2024, she’ll be 91.

But all that may become a moot point – remember, the Courts are only there (for our Progressives) as a last resort: what to do when they can’t get their policies through Congress. But if things go as they might, Democrats might be so bereft of power a couple years from now that the makeup of the Court won’t really matter too much…the real action will be in Congress. One of the rulings this week as the striking down of the requirement that government employees belong to – and pay for – government employee unions. This is what happened in Wisconsin now on a national scale. You can rely on it that a very large number of government employees will opt out of unionization. This will cause a gigantic loss of Democrat political funds – direct and indirect – and thus crimp their ability to influence politics. I note that Wisconsin went red in 2016 after Walker’s government employee reforms…it hadn’t gone red since 1984; and even then, only because it was the Reagan landslide.

We might be living in a very different political America as soon as January.

ObamaCare Open Thread

Mark Noonan84 Comments

Today is The Day – we’ll find out if our nine Justices can read the Constitution.  If at least 5 of them can, then ObamaCare will be struck down because it is patently absurd that government can compel us to buy something (which, by the way, will pave the way to abolishing the absurd laws mandating auto insurance…what a scam that is:  insurance companies got people to pass laws to force people to buy insurance).  If 5 or more can’t read the document – and it is only a few pages long – then we’ll get some tortuous, involved opinion about penumbras and how if you have you Law Professor Secret Decoder Ring and read the Constitution in half-light with the Moon over your left should then you can see the fine print put in there by Madison which says “Congress shall make laws forcing people to buy stuff”.

I hope it is struck down – but, honestly, Obama has used the law already to insert a huge amount of ObamaCare in to our bureaucracy.  The only sure cure is a complete repeal – with the repeal including a specific provision voiding all regulations implemented since passage under the authority of the ObamaCare statute.  So, even if it is upheld, repeal is still the answer.

And repeal can only happen under President Romney – remember that if for a moment you lack enthusiasm to vote Romney on November 6th…only Romney means the end of ObamaCare.

ObamaCare to the Supreme Court

Mark Noonan20 Comments

From Politico:

The Obama administration chose not to ask the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals to re-hear a pivotal health reform case Monday, signaling that it’s going to ask the Supreme Court to decide whether President Barack Obama’s health reform law is constitutional.

The move puts the Supreme Court in the difficult position of having to decide whether to take the highly politically charged case in the middle of the presidential election…

I can’t see how the individual mandate can be ruled constitutional…but, I guess we’ll see.  It’ll either wipe out Obama’s signature issue right in front of the 2012 election, or provide ammunition for Obama against those of us who argue it is unconstitutional.

Stay tuned.