Posts filed under 'Polls'
The underlying good sense and adherence to basic morality is coming through even in California:
According to the latest poll from California, those fighting for the defense of traditional marriage have a nine point advantage over activists seeking state recognition of same-sex marriage.
The poll released on Tuesday afternoon by the Knights of Columbus, reports that the drive to pass California’s Proposition 8 is leading among likely voters 52 to 43 percent. If Proposition 8 is passed, it will amend the state Constitution to say, “Only marriage between a man and a woman is valid and recognized in the state of California.”
The poll also shows that Proposition 8 leads in every region of California except the San Francisco Bay Area, where 58% are opposed to the measure.
Californians’ opinions on the State Supreme Court ruling that allowed same-sex couples to be recognized as “married” by the state are evenly divided.
Fifty two percent of likely California voters believe the ruling was wrong to have overturned the 2000 referendum in which voters approved reserving marriage for opposite-sex couples, and 72 percent believe the decision should be left to the voters, the poll found.
The Marist College Institute of Public Opinion, which conducted the poll between September 28 and October 5, 2008, also uncovered some results that point to the cultural and moral uncertainty surrounding the controversial issue of homosexual “marriage.”
For instance, more than half of the 43 percent against the bill said they were likely to change their mind when reminded that Proposition 8 would not affect same-sex couples’ ability to form civil unions. Moreover, 88 percent of those in favor of civil unions said they viewed marriage as between one man and one woman.
And this is why the proponents of gay marriage prefer to go through the courts - the supporters of such a thing are a tiny minority, even among many Americans who consider themselves liberal. Its not wanted, it never was wanted, it never will be wanted - save by a small group which, unfortunately, is tremendously well funded and has the support of the so-called “commanding heights” of American culture and higher education institutions.
As unpopular as it is and as potentially destructive of other liberal hopes, you’d think the proponents of gay marriage would give it a rest and move on to other issues which have more popular support, but they don’t. Why is that? Because the eventual goal is the end of faith and family, and gay marriage is just another useful tool in destroying both. Raised up against real families and real religions will be counterfeits of both - with the addition of the fact that in the name of “protecting” the counterfeits, the real things must be curbed in the public square.
The left never gives the non-left a moment’s peace - they are ever busy finding new ways to chip away at this or that aspect of our civilization. Defend this area, and they move off to that area, knowing that the whole thing stands or falls as a unit and any support damaged weakens the whole structure. This unremitting war against us must be fought in the same way - we must defend our civilization tooth and nail; the line must be drawn and our demand of “thus far, and no further” prevail - it is either this or we’ll just throw away 2,000 years of human advancement and turn our selves and our children over to monsters in human skin who think they can create the Kingdom of God here on earth.
Tags: California, Christianity, conservative truth, gay marriage, Judeo-Christian Civilization, liberal lies
October 23rd, 2008
And on John McCain’s mind, too:
McCain/Palin have continued to pour money time and resources into PA despite a three week period where it looked like he was losing it by double digits, leaving everyone scratching their heads. But morning call has shown some movement to McCain by 3 points, and Susquehanna had a single digit loss for him, which pulls PA into where VA is now.
And then there was this today:
Steve Corbett, a radio talk show host in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, accidentally received a copy of an internal email sent by Grant Olin who heads the Wilkes-Barre headquarters of the Obama campaign. The email went to 627 Obama campaign volunteers in the Wilkes-Barre Scranton region, saying that Obama Headquarters reported an internal poll which shows that Obama is only 2 points up in Pennsylvania.
Sean Smith, who is heading Obama’s Pennsylvania campaign, was interviewed by Steve Corbett via phone at 5:35 today to discuss this. He said that Grant “went rogue”, and aknowledged that Grant was “reprimanded” for this.
McCain has his own internals too. And if they are telling him the same thing, well that would go a long way to explaining why McCain was in PA today and why both he and Sarah Palin have spent a lot of time this week. Basically if McCain can get the states that are within the MOE, plus steal PA, then he doesn’t need CO or VA…
It must be kept in mind that when the pollsters set their demographic models for 2008 the story line was “almost certain Democrat victory”, and thus the number of Democrats polled is probably pushed up much higher than it normally would be, and GOPers in the polls are lower than they normally would be. Had this election shaped up as everyone expected, this probably would not have been a problem, but the race has not wound up where everyone thought it would be. At best, Obama has a small lead nationally while the battle for 270 electoral votes is even closer than the national polling - and that is only if the demographic model still works out for very much higher Democrat, lower GOP turnout…with Palin energizing the GOP base and McCain doing very well among Independents - and, also, getting them energized to vote - the demographic models for 2008 could be very much off…and the actual state of the race entirely unknown at this point.
To us, that is.
For McCain and Obama, its a bit different - they do their own polling and that polling might be better geared to the eventual turnout, and thus far more accurate than the polling we see in the MSM. What this means is that McCain is either the biggest fool ever for spending time in PA, or he just knows some things we don’t and is capitalizing on the big chance. Adding to this supposition is, of course, the “Bitter Effect” joined to the “Murtha Effect” in western PA - Obama and then Murtha gave Hillary Democrats all the excuse they need to turn out for McCain…we’ll see how that comes out, but I say to McCain, “pour it on in PA” and “have another look at Michigan”.
Tags: 2008 Campaign
October 22nd, 2008
Obamaniacs like one recent poll, but they won’t like this one:
The race between Barack Obama and John McCain remains a dead heat, despite financial turmoil that has turned the nation’s attention to economic issues that tend to favor the Democratic presidential candidate, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll…
…Mr. Hart said that Sen. McCain’s ability to tap into voter anger explains why.
A near-record 73% of voters said the nation is off on the wrong track, up six points from just last month. More people think the nation is in a “state of decline.” Nearly eight in 10 voters think the nation is in a recession and most of them think the worst of it is yet to come. And public opinion ticked down for every public figure and institution the poll asked about, including President George W. Bush, Sens. McCain and Obama and both political parties.
It makes the electorate ripe for Sen. McCain’s populist message, Mr. Hart said, recalling the classic movie, “Network,” where TV news anchor Howard Beale urges viewers to proclaim, “I’m as mad as hell and I’m not going to take this anymore.”
“John McCain has become the Howard Beale of this election,” Mr. Hart said.
The survey finds that Sen. Obama has lost ground with the independent voters who will be crucial to the outcome of the election. They now favor Sen. McCain by 13 percentage points, up from eight points two weeks ago. In early September, just after both parties’ conventions, half of independent voters had a positive image of Sen. Obama; now it’s just 39%. Independents were also less likely to say they could identify with his background and values than they were in early September.
For all of Obama’s talk of change, he is just another one in a long line of people who have been part of the problem…shovelling money at problems, working out sweetheart deals for supporters and cronies, acting as if the party will never end and no accounting would ever be rendered. Well, its being rendered now - and McCain is well placed to showcase his long-standing and indisputable record as a reformer who is unafraid to step out of the party line. Palin has this, too - and while its still a long way to November 4th, its not that long and people will start to make their choices soon…and I can’t see people really deciding that Obama - of all people - is best to reform our nation’s government.
If Obama loses, liberals will blame everyone but themselves - they’ll say its because we’re a bunch of closet racists; that we’re afraid of “the Other”; that we’re fools…it will not occur to them, if they are dealing with a President-elect McCain, that it just might have been the fact that Democrats have been so deeply tied to Big Government and Big Corporation that when one fell, the other was bound to fall with it. It may prove in 2008 that only the outsider can get in - and “outsider” doesn’t mean “not in politics long” but “not a tool for the special interests”. McCain and Palin are no tools - Obama and Biden are, and on that fact may turn the electioni.
Tags: 2008 Campaign, Sarah Palin
September 25th, 2008
Glenn Reynolds (aka the Blogfather) has some excellent advice for those of us (including me) who are head over heels enamored with Sarah Palin:
But I think that Republicans should be careful about launching a cult of Sarah Palin. She’s the V.P. pick, not the head of the ticket. She’s still a relative newcomer to national politics. She’s virtually sure to commit at least one major mistake between now and November. And — yes, I know I said this before — she’s the V.P. pick, not the head of the ticket.
The Dems built a cult around Barack Obama. It energized some folks, but it ultimately backfired. Republicans might want to restrain themselves just a bit, here.
This is good advice as the bump in polls will surely comeback down and we’ll be back to a toss-up race in no time. It’s just the reality of the 50-50 country we have lived in through the previous 2 presidential elections.
Tags: Polls, Sarah Palin
September 9th, 2008
Here are the goods on the USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken over the weekend:
In the new poll, taken Friday through Sunday, McCain leads Obama by 54%-44% among those seen as most likely to vote. The survey of 1,022 adults, including 959 registered voters, has a margin of error of +/— 3 points for both samples.
No wonder the Left seems more and more desperate with their smears.
September 7th, 2008
The news story:
At a rate of 54 percent, Catholic respondents believe McCain’s choice of Palin would help the Republican ticket, while 31 percent believe it would hurt the campaign. Seven percent believed it would not make a difference.
The Zogby Interactive online poll included 2,020 likely voters nationwide and claims a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.
So much for the Biden gambit - Obama picked the blowhard hack as a means of tricking Catholics into voting Obama. Didn’t work. Back to the drawing board, Obama.
Oh, and Rudy’s right - Biden should get that VP thing in writing. You think the Democrats won’t dump a loser? Ask Toricelli.
Tags: 2008 Campaign, Sarah Palin
September 4th, 2008
According to Real Clear Politics show the race varying from an 8 point Obama lead, to a 4 point McCain lead. What does this mean?
That no one really has a clue what is going on out there.
I look at it like this - there are just too many variables out there. Will the youth vote show up? Will blue collar Democrats vote for Obama or McCain? Will movement conservatives show up for McCain? Will President Bush’s unpopularity drag down GOP participation? Will the Democrat Congress’ unpopularity drag down Democratic participation? Will victory in Iraq help/harm McCain/Obama? Will oil/gasoline prices help/harm Obama/McCain? Will liberal women show up for Obama? Will hispanics keep on track for the Democrats, or will McCain have appeal to them due to his immigration stance? The only thing we can say with any certainty is that African Americans will turn out in high numbers and will give a super-overwhelming majority of their votes to Obama (if McCain cracks 5% of the black vote it’ll be a bit of a shocker). With so many variables out there I’m not surprised that a respected pollster like Ramussen comes up with a three point Obama lead while respected pollster USA Today/Gallup comes up with a four point McCain lead. I really don’t suspect any bias in the pollsters (except any Newsweek poll - they are universally and amazingly biased in favor of the Democrats - I’ll trust a Carville poll before I’ll trust a Newsweek poll) - they just don’t know and are doing the best they can.
Its also July and while this election seems to have been going on forever, it really doesn’t kick into gear until after Labor Day…and the high test doesn’t come until after the World Series is over. Between now and then, there is just so much which can and will happen, that all I can do at this point is rate the election a complete toss up and thoroughly enjoy the most interesting political year I’ve ever seen.
July 29th, 2008
Mason-Dixon via Real Clear Politics has Obama up 53/37 over Clinton, while McCain is up 55/27 over Huckabee.
For the GOP, it doesn’t matter so much as McCain is already the presumptive nominee - but if Hillary can’t start pulling out some convincing victories over Obama, then she’s toast. The only question: even if well toasted, if she holds Obama to less than a first ballot majority, will she keep fighting and attempt to take the nomination away from the popular vote winner?
We’ll have to wait and see…
Tags: Virginia
February 11th, 2008
Latest from Rasmussen:
A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 59% of Americans would like to see U.S. troops brought home from Iraq within a year. That’s up slightly from a week ago, but down four points from two weeks ago. Over the last sixteen weeks, the number wanting troops home within a year has ranged from a low of 57% to a high of 64%.
Twenty-five percent (25%) now want the troops brought home immediately. That’s two points lower than it was a week ago and is equal to results from two weeks ago.
Looking at the other end of the spectrum, 35% want troops to remain in Iraq until the mission is complete. That is three points lower than the percentage from last week. The number wanting the troops to remain and finish the mission had ranged from 32% to 39%.
Of course, and as usual, Rasmussen chooses to use the following headline: “59% Want Troops Home from Iraq Within Year”. But it is just as logical to use my headline - and thus we can see that the basic position of Obama, US out of Iraq pronto, is not supported by the American people, if Rasmussen’s poll is correct (and Rasmussen is building up a very good track record of getting it right). The leftwing position on Iraq is just not supported by anything close to a majority of the American people, and thus I think that both Obama and Hillary are building themselves up an ever larger Achilles heel on Iraq - when confronted in October between a choice for surrender and a choice for victory, I believe the American people will choose wisely.
Tags: Iraq Campaign
February 9th, 2008
Of course, these polls could all be wrong, but Real Clear Politics shows an interesting trend:
…Some interesting results. On the Democratic side, Obama improved his standing across almost every demographic: men, women, young, old, white voters, lower income voters, etc. One of the only two groups where he lost ground, however, was among blacks. Three weeks ago Pew pegged his support with blacks at 52% (vs. 33% for Clinton), in the current survey it dipped five points to 47% (Clinton’s share improved to 36%). That certainly doesn’t fit with the trends we’ve been seeing recently.
On the Republican side, McCain made big gains across every demographic, including self-identified conservatives (+14) and White evangelical Protestants (+7).
Among those located in states that will be voting on February 5th, Obama gained 8 points in the last three weeks, while McCain gained 18.
If the GOP really is starting to rally to McCain and the Democrats are splitting evenly between Clinton and Obama, then what we could have on Wednesday is a de-facto GOP nominee starting to gear up against a Democrat who might not be selected until the end of Spring, and maybe not until the Democratic convention. I do believe that I said many, many times over the past year that everyone should pay little attention to punditry and buckle in for a wild ride, didn’t I? This race gets more interesting all the time - and even in contemplating a fractured Democratic party, one must not leave out the possibility that Romney will end up winning 8 or more States tomorrow, and thus keep a strong reason for continuing the battle. If it ain’t over till the fat lady sings, then we must presume that right now she’s just getting to the theater - we’ve still got a ways to go.
The big questions: If McCain ends up the nominee, will he be able to rally the GOP base?
If Hillary is the nominee, will she be able to rally the far-left Democrats?
Tags: 2008 Campaign
February 4th, 2008
