Author: Mark Noonan

Open Thread

Mark Noonan40 Comments

So, had my first work from home day.

Plus: when I suddenly wanted a hot dog, I went and got one. Getting up half an hour later and immediately being home after work.

Minus: Dull.

Still don’t know anyone who has caught Coronavirus – and I’ve lots of friends and family in hot zones. Also rather surprised at how relatively lightly we’ve got off in Las Vegas. It can change, of course, but we went into lockdown 9 days ago and we’re at 350 cases and 10 deaths so far. The number of Chinese and other foreigners who come through this town is very large, so I really expected us to be hammered by it. I mean, look at New York! But, also, we didn’t have our leaders and health people telling us to get out there and hug a Chinese because Orange Man Bad. That might be the difference.

There is a theory that warm weather will abate the virus – we’ll find out in about a week as we’re supposed to get up into the 80’s with dry weather.

The stimulus bill is hot garbage, for the most part and they will have to re-work it in the near future. Be that as it may, it will at least provide some help for those dislocated by the virus. Seems there’s a bi-partisan consensus that every corporation and special interest group out there should be showered with cash but regular folks just aren’t smart enough to handle it.

Some Democrat rumblings about scratching Biden and putting Cuomo on the ticket. This is not an indication of a party which likes its chances in November. I’m thinking that absent a real virus meltdown in the USA (increasingly unlikely at this point), Trump will win rather easily, and likely get the House back into the bargain. Huge amount of time until election day, but Trump has done well and the Democrats got nothing.

The biggest problem with the virus is that we don’t know what its all about – the Chinese data has to be discarded as entirely untrustworthy. Italy and Spain are terrifying, but there seems to be local reasons for how bad it is there. Other places are not bad at all. Until we know the real rate of infection and mortality, we’re rather stumbling in the dark. And this is why it is wise to socially distance…but as we get better numbers and learn what the real threat it, it will be time to start reopening the economy.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan22 Comments

Well, I’m officially work from home, now. Got all the stuff I need; so, one less thing to worry about.

The Democrats, in my view, really messed up on the stimulus…not that the GOP plan is all that great, but trying to lard up the program with abortion and green new deal stuff was an act of political idiocy I don’t think we’ve ever seen in human history. But, they did it – and I think it is because they are in a closed-loop: they simply don’t get much information which isn’t a mere variation on Orange Man Bad.

A recent poll showed Trump’s overall support rising and especially giving him high marks on handling the virus and the economy – it was the sort of poll number that would make him invincible if it holds to November. But the odd thing I saw in it was that Trump’s support among GOPers and Independents on the virus was about the same (around 60%) while his support among Democrats was sub 30%. Theoretically, everyone is getting the same sort of news, right? Well, I guess not: Democrats are clearly getting a set of information which is widely at odds with what GOPers and Independents are getting…and I think this is largely a function of GOPers and Independents tuning out the MSM while Democrats still follow every word of it. If you only watched CNN and MSNBC, you would believe that we’re days away from bodies piled up in the streets and 30% unemployment for a decade.

Now, it’ll be interesting to see what happens if, in the event, we don’t have bodies piled up in the streets and the economy makes a brisk recovery through the Summer. How will our Democrats square that with what they watch on the news? If it finally does penetrate, then Trump may win in an epic landslide.

Be that as it may, no one can really predict what is going to happen in November – though that hasn’t stopped our Experts from proclaiming that Trump is doomed. The situation is entirely fluid and while Trump is getting good poll numbers, now, a major change for the worse in a week or two would likely knock him down. Until it all happens, we won’t know what will happen. But I’m suspecting as bad as the virus might get, it won’t be a catastrophe and, also, as bad a hit as the economy is taking, it won’t take us long to get back out of it. And with Biden – who looks like he’s aged ten years the past month – leading the Democrat charge, I’m liking our chances in November.

Parishoners bought their ill priest a respirator. Priest found out someone else needed it and gave it up. The priest has now died. No greater love…

The Dow rose 2,112 points and so we’re back in Obama’s economy again – we’ll be in Trump’s if it drops tomorrow, for those keeping score at home.

The virus is not a flu – and you should familiarize yourself with the symptoms. Still, after all we’ve learned, the prime markers seem to be fever and a very bad cough. But it can also start with other symptoms and you can actually start to feel better before getting very much worse. Stout hearts, though: most people who get it survive and most who die have underlying conditions. If you have underlying health conditions, I really do suggest you barricade yourself at home and ride this out.

Trump wants to re-open the economy as fast as possible and in general I agree: we can’t stay locked down for a very long time. I think it should be a phased re-opening. As we get better numbers on how many are infected and what the real mortality rate is, we’ll be able to assess the actual danger and start letting up on the restrictions. Overall, oldsters should probably be the last to come out – and everyone who is work from home had probably better stay there for at least a couple months.

Lockdown Thoughts

Mark Noonan40 Comments

Allergy season is in full swing in Las Vegas – and its a bad one; things are coated in pollen. This means I’ve got a headache, runny nose and a cough…so, every five minutes or so I’m worrying “am I sure this is allergies?”. Tiresome, to say the least.

But, I did check CDC for symptoms of Coronavirus – and if you haven’t, the primary symptoms are fever, coughing and shortness of breath. If you get real bad shortness of breath, confused or turn a bit blue, that’s when its time to go to a doctor. The word is that the oldsters are in the highest risk – especially over 65. I’m under 65 – and in pretty good health overall.

How are the lockdowns going with you? I’ll be heading to work from home as soon as I get this odd device which allows me to prove remotely that I work for my company…it was shipped out a while back ago, but it hasn’t arrived. I’ve noticed the mail isn’t exactly a thick packet any longer, either. I suspect that transport capacity has been commandeered for medical and food deliveries. Be that as it may, I’ll eventually be work from home and for a good while, too. And there’s nothing to do in Vegas as everything other than necessities are closed. So, we cleared a much larger vegetable garden this year than usual.

I still view this is an overreaction. But, that’s a horse well outside the barn: the reaction is what it is and it will have its effect. The primary effect, outside the virus, is the crushing of the economy. I expect 20% unemployment in a month or two. But I also expect us to roar back once this thing clears. The direct payments of money to people will be a great psychological help…and it will result in a fairly large pool of unused money once we’re allowed to go outside again. In the end, this pricking of the Dow price may be a blessing in disguise…everyone was wondering how long the market could keep surging like that. Well, that’s one less worry…it’ll probably drop a bit more before its over but when its time to go back to work, it’ll have no place to go but up. Do not look at your portfolio…and I’m thinking if you haven’t sold by now, don’t sell at all…wait for the rebound.

The stimulus is gigantic and will be larded up with pork – but it can’t be overestimated how good people will feel that in this time of crisis they’ve got the money for the necessities. This will have a political effect. Also having a political effect is how tin-eared the Democrats are on all this. They are still stuck on Orange Man Bad when Trump is out there leading doggedly in a time of national crisis. They could jump on board and prove to people that they are about something other than hating Trump…but they can’t manage that trick. I’ve heard unprompted praise of Trump from people you wouldn’t remotely think as prospective Trump voters…they are pleased he’s hammering the fear-mongering press and are waiting for their stimulus checks.

China is a lousy nation we should have nothing to do with – their lies (and the lies continue, I bet: I ain’t buying their story they’ve had no new cases) are what allowed a completely manageable problem to become a global crisis. And those EU-weenies begging for Chi-Com help are just morons, plain and simple. The Chinese can’t help – like all tyrannies, they only look splendid on the surface. Underneath it is a nation where most still live in grinding poverty and prisoners fill the camps. They’ve got a couple showplace cities to wow the rubes of the West while the rest of the country is garbage…and that is why this virus came from there: because they don’t know how to actually deal with something as simple as a flu.

The good news here is that, at last, people are coming around to the view I’ve been harping on for more than a decade: we have to make, mine and grow our own stuff. Having our supply chain outside our control is national suicide. Bring our factories back home…at least to the Americas, where we can keep an eye on them.

Hope you all are healthy and getting through this ok!

Open Thread

Mark Noonan25 Comments

My odd work scheduled has me off today and tomorrow; we’ll see if I really have to go in on Thursday. Probably will: even a massive shutdown will still leave a few vital things we must support. But, it’ll be as it is.

I think Democrats and the MSM are getting rather tin eared here: this is a time of national crisis, not a time of Orange Man Bad. We’re busy wondering about our jobs and getting supplies and if we’ll get sick and we want to know if we’ll have our jobs and our supplies and if we’ll get sick…that is pretty much all anyone wants to hear about right now…not DNC hit jobs. We’ll see how it plays out, but I suspect this will be a backfire of epic proportions on the Democrats.

We’re pretty well stocked here, as it turns out: did hit the grocery store yesterday and while they were mostly out of meat, I did hit upon the turkey breast…so, we’ll soon have Thanksgiving in March. We had already secured our corned beef for today, of course! What was dumb was they put out a pallet of water and some people grabbed multiple cases. Come on, people: just take one. Leave something for the next guy. When they happened to put out potatoes as I was passing by, I just grabbed a couple pounds and left the rest.

Hope you guys are all doing well!

How You Taking the Zombie Apocalypse?

Mark Noonan4 Comments

MGM and Wynn shut down in Vegas – as it turns out, I work with a lady who has family working at MGM and the rumor was that only 8% of the rooms were booked for next week…so, closing down would make sense.

I’m guessing that after all is said and done, we’ll pretty much be on a national lockdown in a few days, even if it isn’t official. People are scared – heck, even I get a little flutter in the tummy; but I’m mostly worried about people doing stupid things resulting in injury and death.

As for the Coronavirus, itself: still no real clarity on it. Likely because the MSM isn’t being helpful here. If we could really nail down the mortality rate and the most at-risk populations, that would be tremendously helpful…but without such data, fears are able to run free. And running free, they are.

I think that Trump is doing all that can be done but, as we Conservatives know, there’s only so much the government can do. Liberals are going bonkers over it – and I mean seriously nuts: I’ve seen comments where they say that Trump is deliberately letting the disease spread so he can be dictator. I guess that is what comes from TDS…and it is being fueled by malignant actors out there. Seen more than one social media post where someone, who seems on the up and up, is spreading the most alarming news…only to be proven false when checked out. Meanwhile, though, tens of thousands of people repeat the falsehoods on social media and very few, I bet, ever check to see if the story was true, or not. This is the new normal: social media can be a tremendously useful and fun thing, but it is also ready-made for exploitation by con artists…and some of the con artists have networks news gigs.

Keep safe; get yourself two-three weeks worth of supplies laid in and pray for a swift end to this disease.

The Ballad of God-Makers

Mark Noonan1 Comment

Could get a little dull what with no sports and the stores all out of toilet paper, so we’ll have to entertain ourselves. Here’s a good, Lenten poem

By G. K. Chesterton

A bird flew out at the break of day
From the nest where it had curled,
And ere the eve the bird had set
Fear on the kings of the world.

The first tree it lit upon
Was green with leaves unshed;
The second tree it lit upon
Was red with apples red;

The third tree it lit upon
Was barren and was brown,
Save for a dead man nailed thereon
On a hill above a town.

That night the kings of the earth were gay
And filled the cup and can;
Last night the kings of the earth were chill
For dread of a naked man.

‘If he speak two more words,’ they said,
‘The slave is more than the free;
If he speak three more words,’ they said,
‘The stars are under the sea.’

Said the King of the East to the King of the West,
I wot his frown was set,
‘Lo, let us slay him and make him as dung,
It is well that the world forget.’

Said the King of the West to the King of the East,
I wot his smile was dread,
‘Nay, let us slay him and make him a god,
It is well that our god be dead.’

They set the young man on a hill,
They nailed him to a rod;
And there in darkness and in blood
They made themselves a god.

And the mightiest word was left unsaid,
And the world had never a mark,
And the strongest man of the sons of men
Went dumb into the dark.

Then hymns and harps of praise they brought,
Incense and gold and myrrh,
And they thronged above the seraphim,
The poor dead carpenter.

‘Thou art the prince of all,’ they sang,
‘Ocean and earth and air.’
Then the bird flew on to the cruel cross,
And hid in the dead man’s hair.

‘Thou art the son of the world.’ they cried, `
‘Speak if our prayers be heard.’
And the brown bird stirred in the dead man’s hair
And it seemed that the dead man stirred.

Then a shriek went up like the world’s last cry
From all nations under heaven,
And a master fell before a slave
And begged to be forgiven.

They cowered, for dread in his wakened eyes
The ancient wrath to see;
And a bird flew out of the dead Christ’s hair,
And lit on a lemon tree.

Heck of a Year This Week Has Been, Huh?

Mark Noonan7 Comments

Here in Vegas, the Coronavirus is positively hammering the casinos – MGM and Wynn have already announced various closures and lay offs. It’ll probably get worse over the next two weeks. It is all temporary, but sucks for those affected – and I hope President Trump jumps in to help out the workers who are going to be hurt here. As locals, we don’t go to the Strip, of course, but we did head out to a locals casino tonight – I was curious about how it would be going. I did win $100, so that’s good. The place was thin crowd for a Saturday night – but, still quite a few people there. I asked one of the workers there how its going: no word about layoffs at the moment but the buffet isn’t getting a lot of business these days so their feeling is that it might shut down for a while.

In my particular work world – a slight slowdown from normal; maybe a 10% dropoff. Contingency plans are ready for us to work from home. Hope it doesn’t come to that – but the panic is pretty deep now, and no one wants to be the guy who kept things rolling and a bunch come down sick.

Our economy is fundamentally strong but this is going to be a hit, no doubt about it. But probably not as much as feared: the panic buying is stuffing retailer and supplier pockets with money…and in my particular line of work, I can assure you that “non-critical” retail stuff is still going on a brisk pace. We’ll come roaring back once this is over…and as we now have real incentive to decouple from China, the long term benefits to our country will be good.

President Trump, in my view, did just fine in his first statement – others thought otherwise, and that’s, I guess, why he did the second one…which went over much better. You could tell because the MSMers were taking pot-shots at trivia rather than hitting the President on substance. President Trump has really stood the test of time, hasn’t he? The guy gets it at the most fundamental level: that it is we, the regular folks, who do all the work and who need to be cared for, first. I’ve never actually been more confident of his re-election.

Ultimately, this is the price of both globalism and the welfare State – the tearing down of borders and the placing people in a position where they depend on government is what got this disease really cracking through the world. People have to use more sense – but I think a lot were waiting for government to take care of it…meanwhile the “come one, come all” attitude about travel around the world made sure that once the virus caught hold, there was zero chance it was going to stop. Strict border controls at all times: that is the way it has to be. And, yes,we should check foreign arrivals for disease…there is technology which can swiftly reveal if someone coming in should be more closely checked.

I hope you all are safe – and have all the toilet paper you need!

Trump to Talk

Mark Noonan38 Comments

9 pm, Eastern, and all about Coronavirus, I gather.

We have a confirmed case here in Vegas of a lady who attended a conference…so, we’ve likely got a good dose of it here in town. OTOH, we locals rarely go to the Strip, so maybe it’ll just stay there.

The Official Word of the Super Smart Experts is that Trump is doomed in November…some of them are even asserting a landslide win for Biden. The key seems to be the belief that suburban moderates are going to flock to Biden out of disgust for Trump. Yes, that is exactly what they said about Hillary in 2020…but this time, they assure us, it’ll be true because everyone loves Biden. Which is what they also said about Hillary…

My view: Biden has a 1% chance of winning – only if 10,000 die from Coronavirus or unemployment is skyrocketing over the Summer does Biden get a real chance at it…and, even then, he’s Biden: a senile, old bully who lies all the time and can’t remember where he is. Nothing will make Trump’s defeat certain – he might lose, but only if the Democrats put up a first-rate campaign talking about issues the American people care about.

Hint: the American people don’t care about the Green New Deal; fracking bans; banning AR-15’s; having Drag Queen Story Time; health care for illegals; fighting Russia; kowtowing to China; re-imposing the Paris Climate Deal; re-imposing the Iran Deal…

Bernie is staying in, at least for now – he should: Biden could implode next week.