Campaign 2012

The Last 30 Days

Mark Noonan60 Comments

I was reading today to gauge reactions to Romney’s smashing debate victory last night and I came across three interesting data points:

1.  The GOP is doing exceptionally well in early voting in Ohio.  This is quite stunning – keep in mind that McCain won Ohio among voters who voted on election day, but got so badly clobbered among early voters that he couldn’t make up the difference.  That the GOP is surging in early voting indicates two things – Democrats are lackluster in their support for Obama and Republicans are very enthusiastic…and that enthusiasm will only rise to a fever pitch after last night.

2.  In a certain suburban Chicago House district that Obama won by 23 points in 2008, recent polling shows Obama only leading by 2 over Romney and Obama is under 50%.

3.  Gasoline in Los Angeles is $4.34 a gallon and de-facto rationing is in effect as refinery outages drastically reduce gasoline supplies on the west coast.

The combination of waning Democrat support, surging GOP enthusiasm and the growing evidence of economic collapse opens up a new prospect for Mitt Romney – not just to win the White House, but to run a truly national campaign where he really presents to the entirety of the American people the stark choice facing our nation.  In my view Mitt Romney – while still pouring it on in the “battleground States” – should start to make time and resources available for the “blue” parts of the country.  A campaign swing through California is in order – and perhaps a bit of time in Illinois and Oregon, as well.

This would not be done with a mind towards actually winning those States – they are likely out of reach unless Romney winds up winning by some miraculous, 1932-like landslide.  But you do it because you want to tell all of the American people that you understand the trouble we’re in.  A trip through California would allow Romney to point out – in the example of California – just where Obama is leading us and what four more years will mean.  Do you want more cities filing for bankruptcy?  Do you want more tax hikes?  Do you want gasoline shortages to come to your part of the country?  Then re-elect Barack Obama – in California Democrats are entirely in control (as they are in rapidly disintegrating Illinois) and this is where they want us to go.  Not that they are wicked, but that they are simply fools to keep following the failed polices of Big Government liberalism and disaster is always at the end of that road.

It would also force Obama to follow Romney – Obama would either have to follow Romney to California (thus taking time and resources from the battlegrounds) or duplicate Romney by going to Texas and South Carolina (thus also taking time and resources away from battlegrounds).  It would take the battle straight to the liberals and force them away from trying to attack Romney in the battlegrounds and back on to a defense of liberalism in the blue States, something no Democrat wants anyone to notice until after November 6th.

This is an election about contrasts – the false promises of liberalism and their disastrous reality contrasted with a message of American renewal.  In that kind of a debate, we win – any time liberals have to defend liberalism, they lose.  They can only possibly win if they make the fight about what a mean, nasty person Romney is in liberal talking points.  Going to California forces Obama and the Democrats to defend liberalism.

And, who knows?, things are so absolutely catastrophic in California that maybe a political miracle will happen?

Will The REAL ‘post racial’ Barack Obama, Please Stand Up?

Leo Pusateri59 Comments

As the Daily Caller reports, a video of a 2007 speech from Barack Obama has surfaced.  An astonishing video, to be sure.

Gone is Obama’s measured midwestern, pedantic dialect.  Gone is Obama’s ‘post racial’ tone.  Gone is Obama’s supposed distance from Pastor Jeremiah Wright (you remember “G-d DAMN AMERICA!” Reverend Wright-you know, the guy that Obama sat in front of for over 20 years, that he supposedly never listened to).   In fact, in the video, Obama embraces Jeremiah Wright, naming him as his mentor and counselor.

Class warfare rhetoric is rampant in this video, as is his allusion to the principles inherent in liberation theology.

It is said that the true character of a person can be seen by how that individual acts when he or she feels that they’re not being watched.

Ladies and gentleman, I give you Barack Obama,

unplugged and unhinged.

What Media Bias? Part 193

Mark Noonan9 Comments

Walter Russel Mead lays it out:

…The news from Afghanistan is grim. With the latest round of deaths, we pass a milestone: 2,000 US combatants have died in what is now the longest war in American history. The milestone has been reached just as the surge in troops has come to an end without achieving the goals of pacifying the country or even launching peace talks with the Taliban. Our Afghan “allies” remain as corrupt and ineffectual as ever, with the added wrinkle that the most dangerous place in Afghanistan for US troops these days seems to be the neighborhood of US-armed and trained Afghan forces, who are shooting and blowing up their nominal allies faster than the Taliban can do it.

This is all bad news and very disturbing, but there is a crumb of comfort to be had. Because these failures happened on President Obama’s watch, the mainstream press isn’t particularly interested in relentless, non-stop scrutiny of the unpleasant news. If George W. Bush were president now, and had ordered the surge and was responsible for the strategic decisions taken and not taken in Afghanistan over the last four years, the mainstream press would be rubbing our noses in his miserable failures and inexcusable blunders 24/7…

And every last one of you reading this – especially your liberals – knows this is true.  You can say all you want that the war started on Bush’s watch; you can say this, that and the other thing to excuse Obama – but you all know darn well that if a Republican were President right now, the stories about the collapse in Afghanistan would lead the news day after day after day.  Just think for a moment what it would be like if McCain had won in 2008 and Obama was just now taking his second shot at the Presidency.  The MSM would never let this pass, not for a second…and we’d have days of news reports marking the 2,000th American death in Afghanistan.

I really do think I have to retire the title of this post – as you can see, its been going on for a long time.  But a more correct title these days would be “What Venal and Corrupt Press?”.  Because this has gone beyond bias.  This is far more than just a willingness to soften the blows for liberals and turn up the heat on conservatives – this is a disgusting failure to do the very basics of journalism:  at least attempt to bring the truth to the people.

Continue reading →

Citizens Pay Taxes

Mark Noonan77 Comments

And if you don’t pay taxes then you are honestly not fully a citizen.  This Fox News poll indicates that a massive majority of people instinctively grasp this fact:

A large majority of likely voters believes all Americans should pay some federal income tax — even if it is as little as one percent of what they make.

Seventy-nine percent say everyone should pay something, according to a Fox News poll released Thursday.  That includes 85 percent of Republicans, 83 percent of independents and 71 percent of Democrats.

According to the IRS, last year approximately 41 percent of tax filers did not pay federal income tax.  The Tax Policy Center estimates that will increase to 46 percent this year…

It is just being part of a self-governing nation – every adult who is physically capable of contributing should contribute, even if its only in a tiny, symbolic manner.  The fact that tens of millions of people pay no federal income tax is a scandal – unless you starved to death last year, you had some sort of income and you should have paid some part of it in to the common fund.  Citizenship is only secondarily about the exercise of rights – it is primarily about the exercise of responsibilities.  And this, indeed, is what scares people about it – especially liberals:  that every man shall be a king (and every woman a queen).  It is frightening to think that you are personally responsible for yourself and even more frightening to think if yourself as responsible for everyone else.  And so it has always been easy for frightened people to prefer a tyrant who will take responsibility for the group and the individual.

I’m heartened by this poll – I had thought that only about 60% of Americans still got what it means to be a citizen.  This poll indicates that nearly 80% still do.

UPDATE:  Off topic here but since you liberals are considering polls to be holy writ:

Rasmussen polled voters to find out which candidate is trusted more to handle the US economy. Mitt Romney leads Obama by seven points, 51-44.

Bloomberg polled the question of which candidate do Americans trust more on terrorism. The Obama administration is rapidly becoming engulfed in charges that it has attempted a cover-up after the terrorist attacks in Libya and Egypt left four Americans dead. President Obama had expected, prior to the attacks, that authorizing the mission that ultimately killed Osama bin Laden would allow him a cushion on foreign policy and especially on terrorism. Bloomberg found that there is no such cushion. In fact, Mitt Romney leads Obama on trust on terrorism by six points, 48-42.

Why Romney Will Win

Cluster149 Comments

Well first of all, let’s take into account that this is a center right country and always has been. In June of 2010, Gallup conducted a poll wherein, 42% of Americans self identified themselves as conservative, and just 20% self identified themselves as liberal. This fact was never more evident than in November of 2010, when conservatives swept local and national elections. And despite what you will hear in the media, and from the Obama regime, the November 2010 election was a referendum on Obama, and Pelosi’s management of the economy which by most measures, has become worse. From CNN Money – “Only 29% of CEOs said they expect to hire more employees in the next six months, down from 36% in the last quarter. Company leaders are also cutting back on capital spending plans: just 30% expected to increase spending, compared to 43% last quarter.”, and a lot of this uncertainty stems from the “fiscal cliff” issue, and Obama’s inability to convince Americans, or even members of his own party that raising taxes on the “rich” will resolve our problems. Of course, everyone knows that it won’t, but that fact hasn’t stopped Obama from demagoguing the issue. Set aside the fact that Obama has never submitted a serious budget, with his last attempt earlier in the year, not receiving one single vote in either Congressional Chamber, not even from his own party. Not one single vote!!! How can anyone be reelected, or even elected for that matter,  that is incapable of submitting a serious budget? Finally on this note is the fact that a conservative Governor just held off on all out liberal assault and won a recall election in a very blue state. Thank you Governor Walker.

Now let’s bring into question the only issue that Obama may have had the upper hand on, and that was foreign policy. That is until just recently when his misguided policies are now literally blowing up in his, and our faces. Relations with the ME are at an all time low, and Obama surrogate and UN Ambassador Susan Rice outright lied to the American people for days following the Embassy attacks, a fact of which is well known by many, no thanks to the sycophantic, Obama loving media. Obama has never visited Israel, denigrated Netanyahu in an off mike conversation with Sarkozy, continues to give Iran more time and confidence, and has done nothing in regards to Syria, where the real massacre is taking place. Outside of allowing the military to take out UBL, of which his braggadocio has helped incited current ME violence, his foreign policy has been confusing and ineffective.

Now we  need to consider Obama’s plan for the next four years, because this is after all, a referendum on Obama, not Mitt Romney. Although Mitt Romney does have a comprehensive plan, and the background and experience to get the job done, this election will be decided on Obama’s plan, which by all accounts, is more of the same. He just needs more time, according to pundits and himself. Well thinking people realize that nearly 4 years is enough time to see some positive results, of which there just hasn’t been enough, set aside the fact that some economists are thinking that hyperinflation may be headed our way soon, gas prices have more than doubled, unemployment is headed upward, and family incomes are on the decline. And what is Obama’s answer? Higher taxes, higher insurance premiums due to Obamacare, more regulation, and more redistribution, and according to him, it just needs more time to work. I don’t think many people are buying that.

Finally the polls, which are misleading to say the least, mostly because they over sample Democrats and base their expected turn out on 2008 numbers, which by any measure was a very unusual election with unusually high turn out numbers in several categories. Also, I believe the most recent swing state polls are over sampling Democrats by a minimum of 5 percentage points. The following is the conclusion of a very good Hugh Hewitt interview with Jay Cost: “How do you get a 4 point Democratic advantage for this president on the top line number with a tie among independents? The only way you get that is through an overwhelming advantage in terms of partisan identification for Democrats.”

Most of the mainstream media will do everything they can to see that Obama is reelected, and they prove that daily in their polling and in their analysis. I base my opinion on the fact that we are a center right country, the November 2010 election outcomes, the Walker win in WI, and the failed policies of Obama. I could be wrong, but I do expect a Romney victory in November.

Excellent Polling Analysis

Mark Noonan53 Comments

Geraghty quoting GOP pollster McLaughlin over at NRO:

…How campaigns try to sway polling results: “In a close race, the operatives are trying to manipulate the turnout through their paid and earned media. The earned media includes lobbying and trying to skew the public polls. Historically the most egregious case was the 2000 Gore campaign’s lobbying the networks’ exit pollsters for an early, and wrong, call in Florida. This suppressed the Florida Panhandle and Western state turnout.” (Polls close at different times in different parts of the state, because the state stretches into two time zones.) “In our post-election Florida poll, we found that thousands of Panhandle Floridians heard the call and although their polls were still open for an hour in a close national race decided not to vote. Panhandle voters went two-to-one for Bush. The CBS early wrong call nearly triggered a national crisis.”

On what a realistic partisan breakdown would look like: “The 2004 national exit polls showed an even partisan turnout and Bush won 51–48. Had it been the +4 Democratic edge of 2000, John Kerry would have been president. 2008 was a Democratic wave that gave them a +7 partisan advantage. 2010 was a Republican edge. There’s no wave right now. There are about a dozen swing states where in total millions of voters who voted in 2008 for Obama are gone or have not voted since. There are also hundreds of thousands of voters in each of several swing states like Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, and others who voted from rural, exurban or suburban areas in 2004 for Bush who did not vote in 2008, because they were not excited by McCain or thought he would lose. They are currently planning to vote mainly as a vote against President Obama.”

What Obama and his allies are doing now: “The Democrats want to convince [these anti-Obama voters] falsely that Romney will lose to discourage them from voting. So they lobby the pollsters to weight their surveys to emulate the 2008 Democrat-heavy models…

Given that our venal MSM is entirely in the tank for Obama it wouldn’t take much lobbying or pressure to get an MSM poll – or a poll done independently for an MSM outfit – to skew their polling to advantage Obama.  Good to remind everyone at this time that back before the primaries were even over I was saying that the polling will show Obama in good shape right through election day no matter who we nominated.  First off this is because polling – for a variety of reasons – almost invariably over-states Democrat strength.  Secondly because the MSM believes it is their moral duty to have our first African-American President re-elected.  Their whole worldview is at stake here – if Obama loses, then they will feel it as a bitter, personal loss.  They also must know, by now, that they are destroying their credibility with all non-liberal Americans and they clearly don’t care…saving Obama trumps all for 90% of the MSMers (which includes, by the way, a very large number – perhaps a majority – of those who work at Fox News; maybe not the on-camera talent, but the people who select and write the stories).

Continue reading →

These Are the Geniuses We’re Up Against

Mark Noonan82 Comments

From Navy Times:

On the last night of the Democratic National Convention, a retired Navy four-star took the stage to pay tribute to veterans. Behind him, on a giant screen, the image of four hulking warships reinforced his patriotic message.

But there was a big mistake in the stirring backdrop: those are Russian warships.

While retired Adm. John Nathman, a former commander of Fleet Forces Command, honored vets as America’s best, the ships from the Russian Federation Navy were arrayed like sentinels on the big screen above.

These were the very Soviet-era combatants that Nathman and Cold Warriors like him had once squared off against.

“The ships are definitely Russian,” said noted naval author Norman Polmar after reviewing hi-resolution photos from the event. “There’s no question of that in my mind.”

Naval experts concluded the background was a photo composite of Russian ships that were overflown by what appear to be U.S. trainer jets. It remains unclear how or why the Democratic Party used what’s believed to be images of the Russian Black Sea Fleet at their convention…

I don’t blame the admiral – he probably didn’t know what was being flashed behind him.  But what is it with our Democrats?  Don’t they have anyone with enough military experience to differentiate between US and foreign warships?  Go look up pictures of, say, as USN cruiser and compare it to a Russian – they are remarkably different in appearance.  Though I guess the fact that both are painted gray and have all sorts of weapony looking fighting thingies on them can cause some confusion…

Don’t Buy the Lies

Mark Noonan80 Comments

Just in case any of you out there are getting skittish – a few words to the wise.  First off,  here’s a headline from September, 1980:

“Campaign Kickoff; Has Reagan Dropped the Ball?” – U.S. News and World Report, 9/9/1980

In what shapes up as a tight contest for the White House, even associates of Ronald Reagan conceded that the Republican nominee got off to a sputtering start in his attempt to replace President Jimmy Carter…

Reagan, of course, went on to win by 10.

Coming out of the convention what Obama wants – and thus the MSM will do – is play up every negative aspect for the GOP and every positive aspect for Obama (even if they have to make up things to fit both narratives).  Remember, 90% of the MSM is in the tank for Obama – always has been, always will be.  They will not tell the truth.  Now, readers here know that I’ve been confident of a Romney victory:  I remain confident.  Can Obama win?  Sure he can.  Lots of things can happen in an election – maybe the American people in a majority will want to continue Obama’s destructive rule.  So be it.

But I don’t think it will happen – if it does happen it just means that we’ve allowed socialism to go too far and it will have to get massively worse before a majority are fully awake to the necessary revolution.  Fortunately – if I may use that word – the re-election of Obama will make things rapidly get massively worse so we’ll have a good shot of winning in 2016 if not in 2012.  But I don’t believe a majority of my fellow Americans are that far gone – at least 40% of them are (and thus that is the ultimate floor for the Obama vote – when he shouldn’t get more than 10%, representing the people who really profit of our corrupt system) – but not a majority.  November 6th will either prove or disprove my view – but my view of where the majority is doesn’t depend on polls (hasn’t at all this election cycle) because the polls are simply over-sampling Democrats.  My view is based upon cold, hard, facts on the ground – and all of those (such as, for instance, Romney’s 22 campaign offices in Michigan – a State Obama won by more than 16 percentage points) show, at a minimum, that Romney is even with Obama, and I think he’s actually ahead.

UPDATE:  Hot Air reports on a new poll showing Obama up by 7 over Romney in New Jersey.  Yes, New Jersey.  The State Obama won by 15 points in 2008.

Does it stand to reason that Obama can lose that much support in heavily blue New Jersey and yet not lose it in purple Ohio and Florida?  I’m telling ya – any State that Obama won by less than 5 is gone, any State won by less than 10 is “tossup”.