Blogs For Victory

We’ll add important updates in this post today. You can also follow me on Twitter, where a majority of my Election Day coverage will occur.

UPDATE:  Instapundit is getting e-mail updates from voting precincts around the nation; just “man on the street”, as it were.  The trend seems to be strongly that in heavily Democrat areas turnout is so-far light while in heavily Republican areas turnout is strong.  One thing to always keep in mind – as one old general once said when report of a military disaster was brought to him, “the situation is never as bad, or as good, as first reports indicate”.  Don’t put too much stock in anything you hear throughout the day – not anecdotal reports, not leaked exit polls, not MSMers saying that “trends” indicate an Obama victory.  Until the votes actually start to be counted, no one really knows.  The only job you have today is to vote.  Do that and let things fall where they may.

UPDATE II:  An interesting story about how the early voting went in Ohio.

UPDATE III:  From Russ over at Ace of Spades – this is Operation Visine:  Get the Red Out!

UPDATE IV:  GOP turnout way up in Ohio.

UPDATE V:  Huge turnout in Louisiana and Missouri.  Why is this important in these certain-to-go-Romney States?  Because it is a gauge of GOP engagement…very, very high.  Also, it might drag Akin across the finish line and help us gain a Senate majority.  Also helps Romney run up the popular vote score in case it does come down to 10 or less electoral votes separating the candidates and no one knows who wins tonight.

UPDATE VI:  Early exits show the economy is the number one issue and that people think the economy sucks.  Remember:  the exits are not the last word on anything.  Whatever they say, don’t let them get you elated or down…go vote if you haven’t already.  But it is bad news for Team O that Big Bird, lady parts and revenge are not high up on the list of voter concerns…

UPDATE VII:  Vigo County, Indiana, a bellweather county (has picked the Pres winner since 1956) has a big swing to Romney.

UPDATE VIII:  Right now Romney is winning the popular vote 50% to 48%…

Battleground Watch: Romney 331, Obama 207

Ali A. Akbar: Romney 285, Obama 253

Karl Rove: Romney 285, Obama 253

Joe Trippi: Obama 303, Romney 235

James Pethokoukis: Romney 301, Obama 237

Michael Barone: Romney 315, Obama 223

Baseball Crank: Romney 271, Obama 267

UPDATE: In anticipation of lots of Election Day coverage off the blog, I’ve added my Twitter feed and Ali Akbar’s to the sidebar.

UPDATE , by Mark Noonan:  Well, here we are – on the eve.  Yes, I’ve had the jitters – but one must keep things in perspective.  Prayer calms the soul.  Try it, if you’re feeling nervous.

Obama’s rally today was half empty – the sure sign that the bloom is completely off the rose and this is not 2008.  Only a 2008 type turnout (or a completely unexpected collapse in GOP voting) can really pull it off for Obama.  Obama’s team and their lapdog media are playing a gigantic mind game with us – touting their early vote and their ground game not so much in confidence that they have it in the bag but in hopes that it will depress us and lower our turnout.  The truth of the matter is that the Democrat early voting totals have collapsed from 2008 – Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Michigan genuinely are in play…and even if they do wind up falling to Obama it will be by tiny margins…and that drop in vote will translate all across the nation, ensuring that Obama loses every 2008 State he won by 10-12 percentage points or less – that, by itself, gets Romney to 266 electoral votes, which is the bottom I see for him tomorrow:  he won’t get less than that (yes, Obama will lose Ohio).  This means that all Romney need do is win one of NH, PA, MI, MN, IA, WI, CO and NV.   Romney is leading in CO, tied in PA, WI and IA and within the margin of error (with Obama under 50%) in the rest.

But, still, there is that chance that Obama wins.  So be it.  If the American people want four more years of Obama, then God bless us all and we’ll just have to endure it.  It will be real bad next year no matter who wins – but if Obama wins then it will not only be much worse but much more extended in time.  And we’ll get to look forward to utterly crushing the Democrats in the 2014 mid-terms (always deadly for the party in power in the 2nd term of a President – see 2006 for confirmation).  And then as 2016 we’ll get to choose between Ryan, Sandoval, Rubio, Santorum, Jindal, Haley, West, Perry…while Democrats get to choose between Hillary, Biden and Cuomo.  I’m telling you, nothing but fun for us in there (and this leaves aside the fact that Benghazi is already a cancer eating at the Obama Presidency…if he “wins” tomorrow then he loses).

I don’t think that will happen.  I trust my fellow Americans – I trust the fact that Democrats I know are nervous and “confident” that Obama will win it narrowly while Republicans are thinking it may even come out as a landslide.  I am encouraged by Latina Americans I know personally who are voting for Romney…talk about Obama’s demographic collapsing in front of his eyes.  It could be a landslide – it could be a big win; we’ll have to see.

God bless you all (yes even you liberals out there) and good luck to all of us tomorrow.

 

Yup, the same guy who predicted John Kerry would win in 2004, and said that Bush needed a miracle to win reelection, is saying that Obama wins in handily.

His key arguments for the 11th hour shifts in the battleground states are as follows

• Hurricane Sandy provided him with a boost.
• The last jobs report, by not being horrible, was good for him.

Let’s consider these arguments.

I can’t buy the argument that the jobs report, which had the unemployment go up, thus pointing it higher today than it was when Obama took office, was a net positive for Obama. A mixed jobs report isn’t likely to change any minds either way, in my opinion, and hardly changes the fundamentals: There are fewer people employed today than when Obama took office, people are making less money, and more people are on food stamps.

Now, the bigger point: Hurricane Sandy. While one could make the case that Romney’s momentum was halted for a few days, I find it harder to suggest a shift in momentum in Obama’s favor. Even after the first days when Obama benefited from positive coverage, the aftermath of Sandy’s wrath has once again exposed the flaws in the federal government’s disaster response… after Obama said everything was going well.

So, both of these arguments don’t provide a strong case for an 11th hour shift in Obama’s favor. Michael Barone argues that if you look at the fundamentals, there is potential for a Romney landslide. I don’t think it will be a landslide, but I think Romney can win decisively. A recent poll , and it took a D+11 poll for CNN to achieve a tie between Obama and Mitt, and Mitt was winning independents by 22 points. The candidate the wins independents wins. Plain and simple.

Polls show a tied race in the battleground, Pennsylvania in play, and plenty of evidence to suggest that the results of tomorrow’s election will largely be decided on the ground game and voter ethusiasm. Fred Barnes makes the case for this better than I can. Romney is attacting huge crowds, bigger than Obama, and taking all factors into the equation, makes me very confident Mitt Romney will win tomorrow.

My updated map makes some assumptions based on my confidence on select states, based on polling and anecdotal evidence.

FL, NC, VA are good for Romney.

As is OH and CO. Based on what the 2012 battleground state slate is, these states get him to 275 electoral votes and the win.

In gray are swing states that I’m not ready to call but are all, in my view, bonus states to win. If Mitt wins by only one state, you can bet your life that the results will be contested. So, he needs to win MI, or PA, or either MN or WI plus IA or NH to give Obama no opportunity to contest the results.

And while I still think PA is a long shot, as I just reported, Bill Clinton is making an 11th hour push there, and as Obama’s best surrogate, that suggests Obama’s internal polling shows a race within the MOE.

Is Obama worried about the Keystone state? If you weren’t sure before, this says it all.

As we enter the final weekend before the most important election of our lifetime, the State of the Union is weak. Mediocrity, misery and economic malaise permeate every corner of our great country, with misery taking the forefront for those pour souls who were subject to Sandy’s wrath. As those in NJ, NY, PA, etc., scramble to simply find food, I have to think that they will be less than excited to rush to the polls on Tuesday to vote for a President that only found time to fly in for a photo op. As those in NY see the huge generators being set up, and the money coming in to conduct a marathon, I can’t think that they will be excited to walk to the polls on Tuesday to vote for four more years of misery and malaise. Today’s jobs report inched up unemployment to 7.9%, unemployment amongst blacks is 14.3%, job participation is just 63%, disability claims are at record levels, family incomes continue to decline, gas lines grow in the hurricane effected area with gas prices inching towards $6/gallon, and food stamp usage has more than doubled. This is the fundamental transformation Obama promised in 2009, and it is a promise of which that has only enriched him and his supporters. He has no plan going forward, and will continue to spend money that we don’t have, further plummeting this country to bankruptcy, and more families to despair.

The new progressive Democratic party has controlled Congress since 2007, and the White House since 2009, and they are responsible for the current State of the Union. A state of which must change on Tuesday.