Excellent Polling Analysis

Mark Noonan53 Comments

Geraghty quoting GOP pollster McLaughlin over at NRO:

…How campaigns try to sway polling results: “In a close race, the operatives are trying to manipulate the turnout through their paid and earned media. The earned media includes lobbying and trying to skew the public polls. Historically the most egregious case was the 2000 Gore campaign’s lobbying the networks’ exit pollsters for an early, and wrong, call in Florida. This suppressed the Florida Panhandle and Western state turnout.” (Polls close at different times in different parts of the state, because the state stretches into two time zones.) “In our post-election Florida poll, we found that thousands of Panhandle Floridians heard the call and although their polls were still open for an hour in a close national race decided not to vote. Panhandle voters went two-to-one for Bush. The CBS early wrong call nearly triggered a national crisis.”

On what a realistic partisan breakdown would look like: “The 2004 national exit polls showed an even partisan turnout and Bush won 51–48. Had it been the +4 Democratic edge of 2000, John Kerry would have been president. 2008 was a Democratic wave that gave them a +7 partisan advantage. 2010 was a Republican edge. There’s no wave right now. There are about a dozen swing states where in total millions of voters who voted in 2008 for Obama are gone or have not voted since. There are also hundreds of thousands of voters in each of several swing states like Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, and others who voted from rural, exurban or suburban areas in 2004 for Bush who did not vote in 2008, because they were not excited by McCain or thought he would lose. They are currently planning to vote mainly as a vote against President Obama.”

What Obama and his allies are doing now: “The Democrats want to convince [these anti-Obama voters] falsely that Romney will lose to discourage them from voting. So they lobby the pollsters to weight their surveys to emulate the 2008 Democrat-heavy models…

Given that our venal MSM is entirely in the tank for Obama it wouldn’t take much lobbying or pressure to get an MSM poll – or a poll done independently for an MSM outfit – to skew their polling to advantage Obama.  Good to remind everyone at this time that back before the primaries were even over I was saying that the polling will show Obama in good shape right through election day no matter who we nominated.  First off this is because polling – for a variety of reasons – almost invariably over-states Democrat strength.  Secondly because the MSM believes it is their moral duty to have our first African-American President re-elected.  Their whole worldview is at stake here – if Obama loses, then they will feel it as a bitter, personal loss.  They also must know, by now, that they are destroying their credibility with all non-liberal Americans and they clearly don’t care…saving Obama trumps all for 90% of the MSMers (which includes, by the way, a very large number – perhaps a majority – of those who work at Fox News; maybe not the on-camera talent, but the people who select and write the stories).

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Time For the Proggies and Their Mindless Drones to Put Their Money Where Their Mouths Are!

tiredoflibbs123 Comments

IF this gets through and pResident signs it, then the screeching proggies and their mindless drones, who believe that they don’t pay enough in taxes, can contribute more to pay off the debt.

Of course, they won’t pony up any extra money.  Their philosophy is what is theirs is theirs and what is ours is theirs as well.

I don’t expect this to get past the obstructionist Senate (they haven’t passed a budget in three years)!

http://www.washingtontimes.com/blog/inside-politics/2012/sep/19/house-passes-new-buffett-rule/

Update: Fixed the link for those too lazy or incompetent to type in the text.

How Does Obama Survive This?

Cluster202 Comments

“the trick is figuring out how do we structure government systems that pool resources and hence facilitate some redistribution? — because I actually believe in redistribution, at least at a certain level to make to make sure everybody has got a shot,” – Barack Hussein Obama, 1998
So Obama believes he needs to set up government systems and take OPM (other peoples money), to redistribute to those in need, and of course that government led by Obama would be the sole determiner of who wins and who loses. It’s not enough that only 53% of wage earners pay all income taxes, and it’s not enough that the top 10% pay over 71% of income taxes. Obama believes he needs to redistribute more.

Why does he hate the 53%?

He is toast. I am sure the media will be all over this.

Oh wait.

 

This Is Hilarious, And Sad At The Same Time – Open Thread

Cluster172 Comments

“CHICAGO (MarketWatch) — The Treasury Department is resisting General Motors’ push for the government to sell off its stake in the auto maker, The Wall Street Journal reports. Following a $50 billion bailout in 2009, the U.S. taxpayers now own almost 27% of the company. But the newspaper said GM executives are now chafing at that, saying it hurts the company’s reputation and its ability to attract top talent due to pay restrictions.”

So the Obama regime is RESISTING efforts of a private company to be private again. After forcing the resignation of their CEO, capping executive pay, and imposing the build out of their “green car” dreams, which is now out of production, the Obama regime is saying no to selling back it’s shares because of course that would then nullify Obama’s big campaign slogan – “We saved GM”!!

 

Unbelievable. Sadly though, the unbelievable has become believable in the surreal Obama universe.

Lot’s going on folks. Have at it and be civil.

 

The Root Of The Problem

Cluster62 Comments

As I sit here this morning reading about the Chicago teacher strike and watching my daily dose of MSNBC, I realize that there is one component to the poverty problem that goes unmentioned, and one that is actually at the root of the problem, but an uncomfortable and politically incorrect fact, so it’s no surprise why it is glossed over. And that root of the problem is ……..   irresponsible parenting. MSNBC was showing a chart on the material items that the “poor” in America own, a chart of which we have all seen and one that shows that over half, in fact nearly 80% of what all “poor” households own and that is – microwave ovens, tv’s, cars, computers, cellphones, etc., so it is not a lack of material items that poor children are deprived of. What they are deprived of is a responsible parent, or preferably PARENTS, in the plural. We, as a society, have spent trillions of dollars on welfare programs over the last couple of decades, and current welfare spending is at record levels, including free breakfast and lunch programs at schools, increases in unemployment benefits, increases in job training programs, increases in WIC benefits to single mothers, and continued increases in pay and benefits to teachers, as evidenced by the tentative agreement in Chicago, so we now have teachers who should be well motivated and equipped to properly instruct our children. What we have, is a lack of responsible parents. Parents of whom will choose to stay married, only have children that they can afford, make sure that their children are up, fed and ready for school, make sure that their children are home safe at night, fed, and have their homework done, and make sure that their children understand the consequences of making bad decisions. You can not  smoke pot, drink alcohol, do drugs, have promiscuous unprotected sex, tattoo your entire body, pierce every orifice, and neglect your studies and expect to lead a very productive life. We can spend all the money in the world on poverty programs, and we can have all the government panels in the world addressing the problem, but unless and until we address this simple truth, nothing will change.

Teetering on the Precipice

Retired Spook115 Comments

I suspect more than a few within the Obama campaign and inner circle are in the midst of an Oh, crap moment. I’d have to think they were hoping to get to November 6th without any significant Arab Spring fallout or monetary crisis events. Turns out they have both, only 53 days out from the election.

With the Middle East on fire and both the Fed and the European Central Bank setting in motion virtually unlimited monetizing of the massive debt that Progressive policies have created, Obama’s chances of getting re-elected are growing slimmer by the day.

The premise of the lead article at MarketWatch this morning is that if Spain can just be bailed out, the world is home free.  Happy days are just around the corner.

I don’t know if the first commenter to the MarketWatch article realizes how prescient his comment is:

Fred is taking a tractor-trailer driving test. They come to the crest of a big hill and as they head down the instructer askes Fred “now what would you do if your brakes gave out right here?” “Why I’d call my friend Willie.” “And why would you call your friend Willie?”  “Caws he ain’t never seen a wreck like this one’s gonna be!”

Mark Hulbert’s column pretty much nails it:

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — It’s somehow fitting that the stock market would celebrate the fourth anniversary of Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy by staging a huge rally in the wake of the Fed announcing more quantitative easing.

That’s because both the events of mid-September 2008, as well as those on Thursday, underline just how inscrutable — and, therefore, ultimately unpredictable — the markets can be.

Just take the rationale given for the market’s huge rally on Thursday. In essence, we’re told, the market rallied because the Federal Reserve concluded that the economy is in such horrible shape that it must be put on even more remedial life support.

Got that?

Far from seeing any irony in any of this, however, many investors have evidently decided that happy days are here again.

With the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +0.20%  now a couple of thousand points higher than where it stood when Lehman Brothers went belly-up, many investors are commemorating the fourth anniversary of that bankruptcy by telling themselves that any Lehman-like danger has passed.

If only.

Go read the whole thing.  The comments he posts from supposedly astute market analysts in September, 2008 are interesting.

UPDATE, by Mark Noonan:

Instapundit has an excellent run-down on reaction to the “questioning on a probation matter” of the maker of the film the Administration absurdly blames for the riots.  Here’s what gets me:

Reader Jack Moss writes: “Probation is not a law enforcement function, it’s under the court. If his probation officer wanted to question him about the use of a computer, that broke his probation fine. But that wouldn’t include questions about making an anti-Islamic movie. It’s irrelevant. That means that the FBI showed up outside their jurisdiction for a reason given by their superiors. The question then is who ordered them there.”

Suppose this guy was in violation of his probation – ok, fine:  how often do probation violators get an after-midnight knock at the door?  Especially violations of a probation on a non-violent crime?  With a huge string of MSMers there to film every second of it?  The whole thing stinks – partially of intimidation but mostly of appeasement…Obama and Co are convinced (or at least are trying to convince us) that the film caused the riots.  In defense of his twaddle they have now swung the law enforcement power of the United States against the man who made the offending film and it appears that they are doing it to show the Muslim world that they’ll crack down on “blasphemy”.  All this will do is convince the radicals that we can, indeed, ban “blasphemy”…and that if they murder Americans, we’ll go ahead an do it.  So, guess what?  We’ll shortly get more murdered Americans…