Campaign 2012

Poll: GOP Holds 7 Point Lead in “Generic” Ballot

Mark Noonan15 Comments

From Rasmussen:

…A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 44% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate, while 37% would choose the Democrat instead. The GOP’s lead is up five points from a week ago, the first full week survey since Congress and the president agreed on a spending cuts deal to raise the federal debt ceiling. Last week’s two-point gap was the narrowest lead Republicans had held since mid-May.

Republicans have led on the Generic Congressional Ballot every week since June 2009, leading by as much as 12 points and as little as two…

Liberals were happy with a Gallup poll of adults last week showing a 7 point Democrat lead…but a poll of likely voters is always better, and from what I can tell the Gallup sample was heavily over-weighted for Democrats.  Got to keep one thing in mind as we approach the House contest in 2012:  if the Democrats win, it means Nancy Pelosi is back in the Speaker’s chair…this will always motivate GOPers and GOP-leaners and discourage Democrats and Democrat-leaners.  And this is over and above the advantage the GOP will gain out of re-districting…people just don’t like Nancy Pelosi and other than corrupt hacks and fools, no one wants her holding the gavel, again.

Additionally, this poll continues to show something astounding – a long-term GOP lead in voter support on the Congressional level.  In all my life, I’ve never seen anything like it.  I put it entirely down to just how much TEA Party is injected in to the GOP…the more TEA, the more support.  The only thing which could really ensure a GOP Congressional loss next year is if we ditched the TEA Party.  Always remember that the Democrats want the GOP to break with the TEA Party because the Democrat leaders know that the TEA Party is where the GOP strength is.  Pelosi and Reid want more Specter, less Rubio…and which do you think will propel the GOP to victory?

That all said, don’t get cocky, GOPers…we’ve a long, hard fight in front of us and we have to be fully prepared if the Democrats choose to lie, cheat and steal their way to victory.  Ready to counter it, ready to overcome the pain and anger we’ll feel when they dump the refuse on us.  Get ready for the political fight of your life – something you’ll tell your grand children about.

DNC Chief: Obama Doing Just Swell

Mark Noonan7 Comments

From The Hill:

President Obama’s reelection effort is in “remarkably good shape,” the chairwoman of the Democratic National Committee (DNC) asserted on Sunday.

Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (Fla.), the DNC chief, said that she doesn’t think the president’s bid for a second term is in trouble…

Uh, yeah – whatever:

HAT TIP:  Gateway Pundit

39%

Mark Noonan9 Comments

That is Obama’s approval rating – from the LA Times:

President Obama’s summer woes have dragged his approval rating to an all-time low, sinking below 40% for the first time in Gallup’s daily tracking poll.

New data posted Sunday shows that 39% of Americans approve of Obama’s job performance, while 54% disapprove. Both are the worst numbers of his presidency…

Not the sign of a man who is cruising to re-election.  But, also, don’t get cocky, GOPers.  Obama will have a billion dollars to spend and he’ll spend every dime of is slandering the GOP candidates.  No lie will remain untold, no gutter unexplored, in Obama’s quest for a second term.  So, be happy that people are fully awake to how bad Obama is, but don’t let down your guard for a second.

Santorum Claims Iowa Momentum

Mark Noonan8 Comments

From the Santorum Campaign:

Former Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA) far exceeded expectations in Ames and finished 4th in the Ames Straw Poll.

Today’s results were simply vindication for Senator Santorum’s belief that a clear, consistent and proven conservative record resonates with Americans. Outspent in Iowa by more than six to one in comparison to his nearest competitors, Senator Santorum showed that leadership trumps showmanship and that the American people deserve more than just television commercials, news conferences and empty promises…

Santorum has a point – he certainly wasn’t expected to do well in Iowa…a northeastern politician who was little known in Iowa managed to come in fourth (he certainly did better than Romney…another northeasterner who was beaten by Perry, who only announced on Saturday).

We’ll see if Santorum can build on this – he’d probably have to come in third, at least, in the Iowa caucuses to be taken seriously…and then he’d have to come in second in New Hampshire.  That is a high bar – he’ll have to outdo Paul’s legion of dedicated supporters while taking voters away from Pawlenty.  In New Hampshire, Romney is almost certain to win (and if he doesn’t, then he’s done), so the contest is for second place…if Santorum can do that, then he’s off to the races.  Not the nominee, by a long shot, but it would vault him in to the top tier of candidates.

It is still anyone race to win – Romney, Perry and Bachmann are the heavyweights; Santorum is one of the second tier candidates, all of which have their chances to break in to the top.  We have a very strong field of candidates, only two of which give me grave concerns should they be the nominee – Huntsman (was Obama’s ambassador, after all) and Paul (love him on economics, consider him completely wrong on foreign and defense policy).  Any one of them will get my vote and enthusiastic support against Obama because the safety of the United States requires that Obama leave office on January 20th, 2013.

UPDATE:  MN GOP wants Pawlenty to run for Senate.  That is an exceptionally good idea.  Doesn’t guarantee us a Senate seat from Minnesota, but ensures that the Democrats will have to fight tooth and nail to keep Klobuchar’s seat…and, of course, Pawlenty has already shown he can win State-wide in Minnesota.

Iowa Straw Poll

Mark Noonan72 Comments

With Rick Perry’s announcement the straw poll will be a bit of an anti-climax…whomever does well in Iowa today will not have been tested against Perry.  Still, it could winnow the herd a bit – anyone who competed heavily and does lousy will be greatly weakened.

Anyways, discuss the straw poll and all else relating to the 2012 election.

UPDATE:  Michelle Bachmann.  From NRO’s The Corner:

Michele Bachmann won the Ames Straw Poll today with 4,823 votes.

Ron Paul was about 150 votes behind (4,671). Tim Pawlenty was a distant third (2,293).

Among the rest of the field, Rick Perry had 1,718 write-in votes, Rick Santorum 1,657 votes, Herman Cain 1,465 votes, Mitt Romney 567 votes, Newt Gingrich 385 votes, Jon Huntsman 69 votes, and Thad McCotter 35 votes…

Bachmann did what she had to do, Paul’s fanatics put him up there in a perfectly meaningless way, Pawlenty fell far short…everyone else had no real reason to be there.

2012 Still Makes Me Feel Fine

Mark Noonan15 Comments

From Rasmussen:

…Overall, 43% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president’s performance. That’s the lowest total approval for the president in five months. Fifty-five percent (55%) at least somewhat disapprove…

Any incumbent below 50% approval in in trouble…incumbents below 45% are in lots of trouble.  Obama can still win – in fact, we still have to give him the advantage given the amount of money he’ll raise and the immense powers of the Presidency.  But he’s on thin ice…we can beat him; and beat him very badly.

Poll: Obama Approval at 45%…in New York!

Mark Noonan6 Comments

The hits just keep on coming – from the New York Post:

President Obama might need to start taking a few more campaign trips to New York — and not just to raise cash.

A stunning new survey gives the president a negative approval rating in the Empire State for the first time, with just 45 percent approval and 49 percent disapproval among voters, according to the latest Quinnipiac University poll.

That’s a sharp turnaround from June, when Obama’s New York popularity was a healthy 57-38.

In the 2008 presidential election, Obama carried New York with 63 percent of the vote…

Yes, I know Obama will win New York in 2008.  Even if it turns out to be a Reagan-Carter blow out of Obama next year, Obama is almost certain to win New York…but the fact that he’s blow 50% in a State as deep blue as New York shows that he’s going to have to work to defend his electoral base…that he can’t take any State for granted.  He’s going to have to spend time and money in places that he should have locked up before he even starts…and for the GOP comes the opportunity to spend just a little time and money in the blue States and force Obama to spend even more time and money there.

Obama can only win if he holds on to places like North Carolina, Florida and Colorado in 2012…if he’s battling it out for places like New York, Pennsylvania and Michigan, then he’s likely to be defeated next year.  The only question here is whether or not Obama increasing political weakness will impel Democrats to abandon him…not in the sense of nominating someone else (though his weakness invites a primary challenger), but in the sense of writing him off and working, instead, to prevent the GOP from winning 60 Senate seats?

Naturally, things can change – it is a long way to election day.  The trouble is, all indicators are that things will just get worse for America between now and then – and this is thanks to Obama.  Caught in a vise of his own making…

Poll: Majority Against Obama’s Re-election

Mark Noonan27 Comments

From USA Today/Gallup:

…a majority of Americans, 51%, say President Obama doesn’t deserve re-election; 47% say he does…

Not a good sign for a man seeking re-election.  And do click on the above link for a State-by-State breakdown of Obama’s approval rating.  Here’s the important bits:

Obama’s approval is at 53% in California; 52% in Minnesota; 54% in Vermont…and only 54% in Illinois!

If the election were held today, Obama would be crushed…now, is it likely to get better, or worse, for him by November of next year?

Sarah Palin Proves She’d be a Better President

Mark Noonan35 Comments

A long article on her Facebook page says all that needs to be said – do read the whole thing.  Here’s the crux of the matter regarding our debt:

… we need to get serious about our deficit. No more accounting gimmicks. No more cuts in “out-years” that never materialize. The permanent political class in D.C. might be fooling themselves with these Enron-like accounting games, but they’re not fooling the world’s capital markets. And we don’t need any more happy talk from the White House about “investing” in solar shingles and really fast trains. The White House shouldn’t even bother floating these new spending programs. We can’t afford them. Period. We need to stop this deficit spending, balance our budget, repeal Obamacare, cancel all unused stimulus funds, and reform our entitlement programs. We have to have an adult conversation about our spending commitments; circumstances have changed, and we must adapt. I know none of this will be easy, but, “thick” or not, the average American outside the D.C. politico bubble knows that we no longer have a choice! We will have entitlement reform and a balanced budget; it’s just a matter of how. We can do it ourselves in a calm, methodical, and responsible manner, or we can wait for the world’s capital markets to ram it down on us. Let’s be responsible and do it ourselves. And let’s get serious about reducing the size of government across the board and rooting out waste. How many more reports (that today are destined to merely gather dust on the shelf) do we need about duplicative and unnecessary programs before we actually do something about government waste?…

The whole thing is clear and concise and lays out the problem – fearlessly stating truths that Obama turns away from.  Obama would prefer to carp about “millionaires and billionaires” and have his minions try to make “TEA Party downgrade” go viral…but a real President will face the facts and propose changes which will solve the problem.

I don’t know if Sarah Palin will run – but if she does and obtains the nomination she’ll beat Obama in a landslide for the simple fact that she tells the truth and Obama doesn’t.