The American Choice

If you’re needing a little morale boost:

Interviews with more than 50 state, district and county Republican Party chairs depict a version of the electoral landscape that is no worse for Trump than six months ago — and possibly even slightly better. According to this view, the coronavirus is on its way out and the economy is coming back. Polls are unreliable, Joe Biden is too frail to last, and the media still doesn’t get it.

“The more bad things happen in the country, it just solidifies support for Trump,” said Phillip Stephens, GOP chairman in Robeson County, N.C., one of several rural counties in that swing state that shifted from supporting Barack Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2016. “We’re calling him ‘Teflon Trump.’ Nothing’s going to stick, because if anything, it’s getting more exciting than it was in 2016.”

This year, Stephens said, “We’re thinking landslide.”

That does seem, on the face of it, rather a stretch. The official word is we’re too polarized as a nation to allow any candidate to get to landslide territory (let’s call it getting 56%+ of the vote). To a certain extent, this is obvious: the polarization is seen in the fact that the Left – which makes up the core of the Democrat party – considers the United States to be an inherently racist nation unworthy of support unless it becomes entirely Leftist. We on our side, of course, think the United States is inherently good and merely needs to live up to it’s founding ideals. That is quite a polar opposite view of the same set of facts.

But, in the end, how large is the Left? Meaning: how many people in the United States actually subscribe to the notion that America is inherently evil? That is what November will tell us. It might be a plurality. It might be either an Electoral or popular vote majority. If it is then not only do we lose, but we lose forever: if a majority consciously decides to install a government committed to acting on the assumption that America 1776-2020 is evil, then we’ve lost the fight. Its over: we just have to adjust ourselves to living in a new America which will be quite different from the old.

But, still, that is a pretty confident feeling quoted in the article, isn’t it? Now, to be sure, maybe someone is just trying to bamboozle: all political campaigns say things are going just swell no matter how doomed they are. But they do have some data points to back up their assertion: there is argument over just how many people signed up for Trump’s rally in Tulsa, but the bottom line is that many hundreds of thousands of people signed up for a venue holding less than 20,000 people. That’s a lot. None of us can conceive, even with popular music acts, Biden getting that kind of response. Then there’s things like voter engagement: over the ‘Rona lockdowns the campaigns were forced to go almost entirely online…and Team Trump simply blows Team Biden out of the water in online engagement. It isn’t just a little bit better: it is orders of magnitude better. I’ve also seen good data on GOP voter registration and time and again at Trump rallies, significant portions of attendees are Democrats or rare/new voters. I’ve always said look not at what people say, but at what they do: what people are doing is turning to Trump, at least in the data we can see. Only the public opinion polls are against Trump. Maybe they are right this time? If they are, Trump is going to be destroyed in November. Figure the odds they are right, though.

My view is this: people who aren’t Democrats but are Democrat-leaners – people who mostly vote Democrat but are not committed to the Democrat notion that America is inherently racist – are looking around at riots and absurd lockdowns (DeBlasio actually said – I’m not kidding – in response to Jews reopening their kid’s parks, that he won’t allow people to “take the law into their own hands”: this after allowing nuts-to-butts rioting and protesting by Leftwing groups) and perhaps reassessing just how bad Trump really is? I mean, sure he’s rude and crude and he’s not at all the nice, made-up politician mouthing bromides about peace, love and unity that these Democrat-leaners are used to voting for…but he isn’t the guy locking down people for stupid reasons nor allowing rioters to run amok in the city. How many such people, without ever admitting it, will pull the lever for Trump even if it is a mere rebuke to Democrats who have gone off the rails?

We’ll find out in November.