Ukraine

Open Thread

Mark Noonan28 Comments

In general, these days – and long before Putin invaded Ukraine – I have been opposed to alliances and supra-national organizations (NATO and UN, eg). They tend to hamstring national policy and, especially as they’ve been construed after WWII, they are usually a one-way street: we take on an unlimited obligation to defend other nations without reciprocity. We can see what that has got us: weak “allies” in Europe and around the world. We are committed to the defense of nation after nation and they are not committed to rise to our defense. So, on the whole, I would end all alliances and withdraw from all international organizations.

But if we are to retain them, then they have to be iron-clad and reciprocal. If we’re going to rush to Poland to defend them from Russia, then I want the Poles to send an army to help us fight China. Any such alliance should really be spelled out: how much GDP is spent on defense, what sort of military force each party is to maintain as a bare minimum and plans already made for deployment anywhere around the world as circumstances warrant.

Furthermore, if we go to war with any nation, then I want us to impose the full financial cost of the war on them after they are defeated. No more free rides: no more forcing us to go to war and then after putting us through death and destruction, we rebuild them. No: they can rebuild themselves while also shelling out 10% of their annual GDP to us for 50 years after the war.

Aside: I’m tired of the American Empire.

As for Ukraine: the Russians seem to still be grinding ahead with some big gains in the south and nearly none in the north. I think the Russians took too big a bite of the apple: going after geographic locations rather than seeking to destroy Ukrainian military power. But I suspect there’s a reason for this: Putin wants the Ukraine physically intact as far as possible. A great deal of Ukraine’s military force is concentrated in point defense of major cities: to quickly destroy this military power would have taken massive, destructive bombardment of the cities. This is cruel, but clever tactics on the part of the Ukrainians – they are essentially using their civil population as a human shield, knowing that any civilian killed by Russia will be written down as a war crime, thus increasing sympathy for Ukraine internationally. But I suspect we are getting close to the end: the increasingly shrill calls for a NATO no-fly zone over Ukraine (which would amount to a de-facto declaration of war by NATO against Russia) indicates that the Russians do have air supremacy and the Ukrainians are simply being ground down by superior weight – unless the pressure can be removed, it is only a matter of time.

On the other hand, some are saying that Russia is running out of first-rate material. Not so sure about that: and in second-rate material, Russia is well supplied – but that second-rate stuff is old style artillery, the use of which would cause immense destruction and loss of life. Meanwhile, there is some growing domestic opposition in Russia. Putin better wrap this thing up pretty quick. I don’t think his power is at risk, but the longer the war drags on, the more difficult it will be for him.

What has astounded me is the number of voices on the Right who are taking Ukrainian propaganda at face value. All of a sudden, they’re quoting MSM sources as if they are reliable. I think this is psychological for some of them: being overtly pro-Ukrainian provides distance from the allegedly pro-Russia Trump and supporters (a ridiculous view, but it exists out there). In short, it allows these people to make friends with their Progressives pals again. There is one thing which can save the Democrat’s political bacon in November: the GOP signing on to a Biden war for Ukraine. I think some on the right are willing just that: they fear the sort of GOP which is likely to emerge after the mid-terms…far more Trumpist, far more America-First, far more conservative (they despise GOP moves to enact pro-life and ant-CRT laws at the State level). They hate people like Greene and Boebert; and they can see in the GOP candidates more and more like them. And they hate them because the more we get people like that, the more the GOP will be forced to enact laws the GOP base wants. A war with Russia may deflect or at least delay that.

The joke of the week is that Putin is going to get the Nobel Prize for medicine for having cured Covid. Its like it dropped off a cliff, isn’t it? People were asking where the ubiquitous Fauci had got to and one guy looked it up: basically reduced to appearances on public access cable. The (political) Science has spoken: Covid is political death for Democrats and so we won’t be hearing much about it. At least, not right now: if Ukraine folds in the next week to ten days, they might have to bring it back to distract us from rising prices. We’re up a bit more than 20 cents a gallon for gas in the past week while oil and food staples climb to near-record highs.

In the world of unintended consequences: people around the world are looking about for alternatives to financial securities which can be frozen or seized. You know: like the Russian assets have been. A lot of people thought it cool the way Apple Pay was shutdown for Russians with a flip of the switch at Apple…but a lot of us were like, “WTF – they can freeze me out of my money if they decide they don’t like me”. America is kept going financially by people buying our bonds…and they will keep doing that, at least for now. But if you’re a foreign government or rich guy, do you want your money tied up in an asset that the United States can destroy at a whim? If the world does stop buying our bonds, then we’re financially ruined. And I mean completely. It would make the Great Depression look like a minor correction: one of the strength of Rule of Law societies is the security of wealth under it…that no matter what happens, your property is safe unless you actually break the laws of your host nation (or the host nation of your assets). Now, its funny to watch them seize yachts of Russian oligarchs…but where was the law in that? Some decree of some official. No court. No charges. No conviction: just stroke of the pen, your property is gone.

And that brings me to a point I’ve made recently and for years: national wealth is not dollars. It is what you make, mine and grow. Russia doesn’t just provide us oil, but also fertilizers and other crucial materials. Of course, a huge amount of our manufactured goods come from overseas. Suppose these people decide not to take our dollars in payment? What do we have then? We don’t even seem to make basic things like screwdrivers and scissors any longer.

Gold standard, guys: we have to get back on the gold standard. If our money is backed by gold, everyone on God’s green Earth will accept it no matter how much they hate us. And we must go back to Protection. No more of this “free trade” chimera…massive tariffs to force a rebirth of American farming, manufacturing and mining.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan19 Comments

Why haven’t the Russians finished off the Ukrainians? Short answer: they’re Russians.

Anyone who knows a bit of history knows the Russians have never been first rate at offensive operations, especially early on. It took some real effort for the Russians to produce Tannenberg with the Russian 2nd Army being essentially wiped out in a few days, but it does give the flavor of how Russia goes to war. It is part of the Russian natural character, I guess: being slipshod.

A guy who claims to be an expert on logistic matters (and he seems like he knows what he’s talking about) took a look at all that Russian transport that got bogged down in the mud and noticed that it was the tires causing the problem – they had fallen apart. He then noted that when he was in charge of the American version of such vehicles, they had to be continually maintained to avoid just that: tires blowing out the minute you go off road or otherwise hit something rough. Now, you can bet on it that the commander of those Russian vehicles reported himself 100% ready to go…which means he gundecked his readiness reports and had his fingers crossed when they invaded. This, to be sure, isn’t a disease just of the Russian army – all peacetime military forces suffer from it. But sorta double it for the Russians (and I’ve also heard tell that their Defense Minister is a Court favorite…another common failing in Russia is putting the lives of soldiers in the hands of the guy who can best entertain the Tsar).

So, Ivan did his usual. He did this in 1940, too, and got whacked from pillar to post by the Finns. The Russians left about 150,000 dead on the field there. And I think what a lot of people up high were expecting was for the Ukrainians to do the same as the Finns. Rely on it: our military intel people know the capability of the Russian army: in between lectures on pronoun usage, they still actually gather and assess data. Because of this, we and our allies went rather whole hog for Ukraine. But the Finns didn’t show up. The Ukrainians did. And, hate to break it to everyone, they’re just Russians with a different accent. With juicy, road-bound targets all over the place, the Ukrainians made no real move against them. And now the Russians have sorted out their issues and are starting to roll ahead – latest map I saw from UK MoD indicates a rapidly unfolding offensive which seems to be set on taking over all territory east of the Dnieper. Whether the Russians will go further remains to be seen.

Pudding Brain gave his speech. I didn’t watch. From reactions, it didn’t go over well. You know that if the Morning Joe people are praising it to the skies, it was a dud. Here is Joe’s problem:

The Mrs went out to get gas today and it was more than $4 a gallon. When she got to Ross to shop, she saw a man waltz out of the store with an armload of stolen goods…right past the security guard who is under instructions not to interfere. So, our budget is getting stressed by high food and energy costs and I’ve got to worry that my wife will be rubbing elbows with criminals when she goes shopping.

That is the State of the Union. There is no other State of the Union. And no amount of Pudding Brain/MSM gaslighting will change this.

After my wife told me that, my blood went into slow boil. I admit to actually getting feelings of hatred for those responsible. This was un-Christian of me and I’m sorry for it. But it was there. And I at last realized that even someone as relaxed as me has a limit. Our opponents have ruined this nation…and it is just getting worse and worse. Can you imagine what things will be like after 3 more years of this? I can’t – and I wonder just when those vastly less patient and merciful than me will get to their limit?

Manchin sat with the GOP during Pudding Brain’s speech. My guess: he switches either right before or just after the mid-terms.

The Russo-Ukraine War

Mark Noonan32 Comments

As I sit down to write, there are reports that Kiev is surrounded and not surrounded and that Zelenesky has agreed to talk and not agreed to talk. In other words, nobody really knows what is going on. This is the most talked-about but least reported-on war I’ve ever seen. I think this is because we lack any real war correspondents – people who would actually go into the combat zones and see what they could see. Those old reporters would get things wrong from time to time, but not usually: the willingness of people to pay them to risk their lives for a story was dependent upon accurate reporting. These days, the reporters all stay where they can get an easy TV hookup and a drink after their daily 20 minutes of broadcasting the latest rumor they picked up over lunch.

The MSM is filled with stories of glorious Ukrainian victory. Social media has a plethora of accounts putting out alleged video of the fighting. But I’ve literally seen the exact same picture described as Russian and Ukrainian troops surrendering. Part of our problem here is that there’s no physical difference between Russians and Ukrainians and their military equipment is similar. Anything can be anything and none of us can really tell if a particular armored column driving through a non-descript Ukrainian town belongs to either side.

That said, the Russians clearly have advanced, and in some cases pretty deep into Ukrainian territory. The eyes of the world are fixed on Kiev but the real action is the Russian advance out of Crimea towards Mariupol in the east and Odessa in the west. Especially towards Mariupol because if the Russians get there, we might find a significant portion of the Ukrainian army is encircled. And that might be why Zelensky wants to talk (if those reports are correct): work a deal before the Ukrainian army in the east has to capitulate (in the face of Russian air power, a withdrawal is probably not feasible).

Part of the problem the world has in dealing with this is that we don’t know Putin’s intentions. He hasn’t really stated them. My thinking when it started is that he wanted the line of the Dnieper: essentially taking the part of Ukraine where ethnic Russians make up the bulk of the population. That still might be it – with the moves towards Kiev and Odessa merely to obtain bargaining chips to obtain Ukrainian agreement to surrender the Donbas. But there is a chance he wants the whole of the Ukraine. That, I think, would be foolish on Putin’s part as he’d be taking control of a hostile population and pretty much force Poland and Romania into massive military build up and close alliance.

Naturally, the Democrats are trying to pitch this in a manner which forces us to back them politically. We have to rally ’round the flag, right? If recent polling is correct, that isn’t happening: Pudding Brain is cratering to his lowest ratings yet. I know some people who have become emotionally invested in opposing Putin and this has made them turn the Ukrainians into pure heroes. I’m not having any of that. The Ukrainian government has been corrupt to the bone since it was set up after the fall of the USSR. They had 8 years to prepare for this and it doesn’t look like much was done – they should have had layered defensive positions and a plan to mobilize the entire population at need. But I guess giving no-show jobs to Hunter Biden was the best they could do. I am sympathetic to their plight, but only to an extent – the people of Ukraine are ultimately responsible for the sort of government they endure. If they truly loved their country, they would have made sure that no matter what else happened, national defense was carried forward with conviction. They didn’t and now Ivan is knocking at the gates.

On the other hand, I also know people who are making a hero out of Putin and so they cast aspersions on the Ukrainians. Putin’s propaganda is that he’s only going in to rid Ukraine of neo-Nazis. This is based upon the Azov Battalion of the Ukrainian militia and the actions of Ukrainians during WWII.

The Azov Battalion originated in the 2014 conflict – and it clearly has links to white nationalist groups and some of its symbols are obviously based on Waffen-SS symbols. But I doubt they hope to revive a Nazi empire. The symbols they use are more for anti-Russian than pro-Nazi reasons. This is because during WWII quite a lot of Ukrainians did work with the Germans against the Soviet government. They also fought the Germans quite a bit. In the end, the outside observer can only look with a bit of sympathy on people who were caught between Nazis and Bolsheviks. If you were Ukrainian in 1941 you had family members who had been starved to death, murdered or otherwise brutally oppressed by agents of Soviet power. It wasn’t just a portion of the population: all of them had reasons to hate the USSR with a white hot passion. In come the Nazis and the Bolsheviks are gone…the Nazis then proceed to murder, rape and loot to their hearts content. This did cause some Ukrainians to become pro-Soviet partisans…but quite a number let that Nazi brutality roll right off their backs and they became ant-Soviet partisans. If you ever wanted to know how bad Stalin’s rule was, there’s your answer: some people would rather help Nazis if that meant keeping Stalin out.

And they kept up the fight – for ten years after the end of WWII, Ukrainians continued a forlorn struggle against Soviet power. Without any outside support they were eventually crushed…but the memory of them endured and their symbols remained potent to Ukrainians who remember and dislike Russian rule. And, so, there you go: the Azov Battalion. So, I don’t put much stock in pro-Russian claims that Ukraine is a neo-Nazi hotbed.

I think that this is one of those events where we’re just going to have to see how it comes out. It is, though, a war I want no part of. I don’t even want to arm the Ukrainians at this point as I’m concerned that we’ll just end up supplying the Russians as we did the Taliban. The Europeans can provide all the aid Ukraine needs – let them do it. Keep our soldiers home – at most I’m ok with providing humanitarian relief.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan51 Comments

Why do we hate Russia? Because they attacked our Democracy! Keep that in mind: our panties are in a wad in 2022 because Team Hillary blamed Russia in 2016. It really is nothing more than that – this is just the op taking on a life of its own and driving a Narrative in ways that are amazing to see. I mean, we let Russia waltz into the Crimea. If we were going to fight a war to defend the sacred borders, that was the time to do it…not years later when Russia has Ukraine in an impossible strategic situation. But, we’re going with this…because part of the op for 2022 and especially 2024 is to keep Russia, Russia, Russia going. It is an excellent distraction from China, after all.

We’re very much in a Twilight Zone here – but we’re only here because we keep going along with it. Or, at least, most of us do. While McConnell and Graham are playing the tired, old Neo-Con record vis a vis Russia, plenty of us are all “just why do I care about Ukraine?”. We can’t get an answer to that: all we get is we must defend Democracy and International Norms. Well, if we’re going to defend Democracy, then lets invade Canada and depose Trudeau.

But we know that is all drivel. We’re not defending anything other than a corrupt and dying Ruling Class. I think our best Rule of Thumb going forward is to assume that anything we’re told to care about is the exact last thing we should care about.

One of the recalled San Francisco school board members is blaming white supremacy for her ouster. Because of course. Had nothing to do with having the kids wear masks while telling white kids they are born racist.

They’re putting up the fences and calling in the National Guard to DC for Pudding Brain’s SOTU. Are they really scared, or are they just trying to drive a Narrative? Probably a little of both. But this is not the action of a government which says it got 81 million votes.

I’m not sure what is more amusing here – Hunter Biden blowing his money on crack or the fact that it’s being spilled by a lady with the on-line handle of “Weed Slut 420.” But here’s the thing – if this was a Republican’s son, this would be 24/7 in the MSM. Because it is Hunter Biden, only a few news outlets are covering it. The bottom line is that Hunter is a massive national security risk and the Chinese probably have their hooks for far in him that Pudding Brain is powerless against them.

Ace has an insight:

The tactic employed by the Democrat Party seems to be 1, creating a “Person of Color” category, 2, assuming that all “Persons of Color” have the political priorities that black progressives do, and 3, use the most militant and extreme fringe of black progressivism to define black progressives.

Thus, the Democrat Party is selling a fringe ideology of decriminalizing crime and taking the education of out schools to Asians. And then saying, “You’re Persons of Color. You like this.”

But they don’t like this.

In fact, most blacks don’t like this. This isn’t the politics of blacks. It’s the politics of the Black Panther Party.

Which is then sold to Indian immigrants as somehow representing their interests.

More and more people, and more and more Democrat constituent groups, are waking up to the fact that Wokeness = Death. And that sacrificing your life, or your child’s life, for Twitter Virtue Points is a bad deal.

It really is that, isn’t it? Democrats have taken the most extreme views of people like Angela Davis and Bobby Seale and said that all non-white people are 100% that. Doesn’t make the least bit of sense, but that is what we have. And now it is starting to bite the Democrats. That SF school board recall was driven by Asian-Americans while Latinos are shifting to the GOP as they reject woke ideology in favor of law and prosperity.

A Democrat Congressman – who is both fascist and insane – wants the government to seize the trucks of protestors and pass them out to other people. Never mistake it: they are bad guys. They will tell you they’re the bad guys. Don’t act like they are reasonable people you can work with.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan33 Comments

Justin Trudeau announced today that the state of emergency would continue even though the trucker protest has been ended – people who start using jackbooted thugs and unconstitutional punishments usually don’t like to give up such things. Among his statements is an assertion that any MP who doesn’t vote to approve dictatorship is opposed to Democracy. All of this brought to mind a Tweet I did a while ago: Progressives are not nice people. They are mean, nasty, self-loathing psychopaths. They are mere appetite for power and money and they despise those of us who have normal lives.

Only the United States is free in 2022, and we’re barely hanging on to it. Only the tattered threads of our Constitution and our federal system keeps us from falling into the dark night of tyranny. And day by day the minions of Pudding Brain are working to undermine both things – they hate us. They hate the United States and they want us to be on our knees to them. They do it in a hundred different ways from things like refusing to enforce immigration law to pressing auto companies to go all electric in their products. Anything they can do to take choice away from us and give it to faceless, Progressive bureaucrats.

If we win in 2022 and 2024, we have to go war against the State. Even if you won’t go as far as I do in wanting to abolish the police, you simply must agree that police powers, especially at the federal level, need to be curbed. We need specific laws prohibiting federal agents from doing certain actions- things like no regulation takes affect until approved by both houses of Congress in a stand-alone, up or down vote; no collecting of identifying data on American citizens without a warrant; banning asset forfeiture prior to conviction and even then only for assets which are proven in court to come from illegal activities; banning banks from reporting financial transactions to the government without a warrant (no more of that “if they deposit 10 grand, let Uncle Sam know”, which they want to change to a $600.00 threshold). We must dismantle the ability of government to know our activities or do anything to us prior to the issue of a warrant and/or a conviction in court.

They’re still fussing about Ukraine. I guess I’m supposed to care that Putin is trying to detach the predominantly ethnic-Russian areas of Ukraine. I do see the issue – especially as Putin also considers Ukrainians to be Russian – but I still don’t see why I’m supposed to care more than the Europeans do. I’m willing to help – provide all kinds of a support for a Franco-German army fighting to keep the Russians out of the Donbas. But if there isn’t a NATO army to support there, don’t see any reason to send an American army…which will be called “allied” because while we send, say, an Army corps the French send a regiment and the Germans a battalion.

Global warming got snow in the Chinese city of Xiamen for the first time since 1893. Apparently, a really arctic blast is hitting east Asia and it might be heading our way. I did check and in a couple days we’ll be dropping from balmly 60’s and 70’s down into the 50’s for high temps in Vegas.

Israel preps for Pudding Brain’s surrender to Iran on the nuke issue. Why are they doing this? Because Trump didn’t surrender and kept the mullahs in a strategic cage – and Team Pudding Brain’s main thing is to do the exact opposite of whatever Trump did.

As mask mandates are lifted, people are noting that some people just will not let the fear go. A Twitter friend points out that we were subjected to a military-grade psy-op on Covid and it worked very well. Some people were made so terrified of this 98%+ survivable disease that they are psychologically scarred. Maybe for life. My view: it all depends of if you watch TV. Those who watch TV got the full dose of the psy-op and so are wrecked. I’ve lost friends over this: and those I’ve lost are all avid consumers of TV.

Our Matt is sort of on Trump’s Truth Social platform – he’s gotten farther than I have. I figure demand for it is overwhelming, so I’ll be patient. And I’ll see you there! No shirking this one, guys: get an account. When I have one, I’ll post my handle here. We’ve got to build this thing up as fast as possible for political reasons.

War

Mark Noonan34 Comments

With Ukraine in the news I’ve been pondering a lot about our general view of the world. One thing that has been striking a jarring note for me is the assumption that we bear some sort of responsibility for Ukraine. That Ukraine as an independent nation is something that we must secure.

Why?

To be sure, some say that in Ukraine’s deal to give up nuclear weapons, we pledged ourselves to Ukraine’s defense. But, we really didn’t: we pledged to rush right off to the UN if Ukraine was attacked – a UN which, of course, has a Russian veto and so the whole thing was quite toothless from the get-go. But even supposing we had an agreement to come to Ukraine’s defense, does this then relieve Ukraine from the obligation to defend herself?

Seems to me that if I were a Ukrainian patriot with a neighbor like Russia, I’d put a high priority on national defense. I realize that Ukraine is poor, but the Israelis were dirt poor in the 1950’s and their first priority was a military second to none because they had hostile neighbors who could attack at any moment. A Ukraine filled with people committed to the Ukrainian national ideal would have a very powerful army, thickly layered defenses and a reserve force made up of the entire adult population in arms. You know – be so well armed that even a successful foreign invasion would drown in blood. Do that, and the chances of that foreign attack diminish remarkably.

Ukraine’s active military is a little more than 200,000. Reserves about 250,000. To defend 230,000 square miles and 41 million people. That’s not a lot. That’s not nearly what you need. It isn’t nearly what you’d have if the Ukranian people really gave a damn. To give you a comparison, when Israel was attacked in 1973, out of an Israeli population of about 3 million, the Israelis mobilized about 400,000. That’s 13 percent. That can’t be sustained for long (your civil economy starts to collapse), but when your life is on the line, you do it. You’d think that 41 million Ukrainians could have 4 million ready to mobilize in a life-and-death emergency. And they would, if Ukrainians really cared – because Russia is right next door and the President of Russia believes that Ukraine is an integral part of Russia.

And if the Ukrainians won’t do it – won’t even show willing to do it – why in heck does anyone else have to care? Because wars of aggression are wrong? Well, yes they are – nobody ever has a moral case for starting a war, or setting things up so that the only way out is for someone to start shooting. But lots of things are wrong – the way some Arab countries treat women is wrong. What China is doing o the Uyghurs is wrong. The slave trade in Africa is wrong. The drug lords running rampant in Mexico and Central America are wrong. Lots of things are wrong which war, successfully prosecuted by good guys, could set right. But do you want to?

Who wants kids from Ohio and Alabama to head off to the Donbas to keep the Russians out of lands largely populated by ethnic Russians? Or send them off to Xinjiang to liberate the Uyghurs from China? Or even clear out the drug lords from Ciudad Juarez? If anything, I’d rather help the Mexicans dispose of the cartels – but before I hazard American blood on anything, I’d like to know for certain why we’re doing it and what we get out of it.

The first thing to keep in mind about the world is that it isn’t neat and tidy. There isn’t a completely right answer in purely human affairs. Often, there’s just a least-bad answer. The unification of Italy and Germany into nation-States was an utter disaster for the world and, most especially, Italy and Germany. The freeing of the peoples of the Austrian Empire was a disaster for the peoples of the Austrian Empire. I mean, I dig that Poles didn’t like officious Austrian overlords (who would?) but the officious Austrians kept a cavalry barracks at Oświęcim, not a death camp at Auschwitz. I guess what I’m saying here is think carefully about what you want before you act.

What I want, first and foremost, is a free and independent United States. If I’ve got that, then I am very satisfied with the world. Naturally, I understand that the United States cannot live in isolation from the world. People and trade flow around and ambitious people with wicked minds are here, there and everywhere. I do have to keep an eye on things. I will, at times, be forced to fight. But when I fight and how I fight must refer back to my first principle: a free and independent United States.

Now, as I consider Ukraine I note that it was firmly under Russian rule from 1776 until 1917 and then, again, from 1921 until 1991. At no time during those periods was Russian rule in Ukraine a threat to American freedom and independence. It just wasn’t. Sure, from a geopolitical standpoint it would have been advantageous to the US to have an independent Ukraine all through the Cold War…but it wasn’t a necessity as proved by the fact that all through the Cold War we didn’t have an independent Ukraine. If Russian rule is reimposed in Ukraine, what ill effect will this have on American freedom and independence? I can’t see any.

“But Russia might go on and attack more!”

They might. Baltic States, Poland. On and On. I note that Poland was under Russian rule from 1791 to 1918 with no ill effect on American freedom and independence. I’m very sympathetic to the Poles as they have put up with a lot. But does my sympathy for Poland extend to sending American kids to die there? Make your case, if you’ve got one. I can’t. I could not look an American kid in the eye and tell him that his death along the Bug River will keep America free and independent. I couldn’t say it because it wouldn’t be true.

Don’t get me wrong, there can be existential, global threats. Communism was such, as was Nazism. They both proposed the whole world as their jurisdiction. Fantastic as it sounds, the USSR considered the American Communist Party as the legitimate American government and Hitler had named Goebbles to be Gauleiter of America. Fighting such things anywhere is what you have to do because if they win anywhere, they are step closer to overthrowing American independence and freedom. But Putin is no Hitler or Stalin. He does not represent a global ideology at permanent war with all dissenters. He may be a bastard twenty different ways, but he’s not an existential threat.

I agree there are non-existential threats which still must be confronted. Radical Islam. Chinese imperialism. And even a bit of Russia’s aggression are causes of concern, sometimes grave concern, which could make fighting them necessary. While I don’t think Ukraine rises to such a level, I do hold that Russian meddling in the United States is a problem. But far more than Russian meddling I find the threat in Chinese and Islamist meddling to be a huge threat – especially given how much money Islamists and Chinese have to bribe Americans to betray their own.

In wanting to contend with such threats, I can agree to enter into mutual defense pacts with other nations. I can agree to military action and even full scale war. I do believe that if China attacked Taiwan, that is worth us going to war over – because of China’s meddling in the United States such a conflict, successfully concluded by China, would simply put us in a worse position vis a vis China and so allow them to interfere in our internal affairs even more.

It would, naturally, be to Taiwan’s advantage to accept our aid against China. If we win, they win. But even in such a clear cut case of fighting for American interests, I still want a clear goal and a clear payoff for our expenditure of treasure and blood. We can’t go out to bleed and die just to help – we have to be compensated for our efforts.

Suppose we had to go to war with China. Fine. It would be a years long and very expensive war in blood and treasure. I believe that even as ruined as we are right now, we would prevail in the war (China isn’t nearly as powerful as advertised). And that would be good. But we can’t do it like we did after WWII. That was a horrendous mistake: we helped our defeated enemies return to the world of competition with us. No. No, no, NO!. They had to pay. Heck, that war cost so much they should still be paying. We go to war with China and win, then for a century China should be paying us.

I’m deadly seriously here – after a war with China, I’d want every bit of gold and silver and art turned over to us and a 10% tax on China’s GDP for a century paid to us. Maybe even take some land from them: move the Chinese out and Americans in. The main thing is that they pay us for putting us through the trouble. We do not want to own the world. We do not want the world to do what we say. Yeah, maybe from mid-century on we’ve had some jerks who dreamed of such, but that wasn’t the American people. We just wanted to be left alone to hold our own. My view is that if you do things to us which force us to go fight you, then you’re going to pay. You’re not just going to lose the war, you’re going to be humiliated and then forced to work very hard to send money to us for a very long time.

It is time we got out of the dream world. All this UN, NATO, treaties and arms limitation garbage since WWII has been the answer provided by dimwits who never understood the world. The world is a real place. People do things in it. Good and bad. We can’t cure all bad and we don’t have the right to, anyway. Our primary duty is to look after ourselves – to make only temporary alliances at need, to make sure they are reciprocal (our blood to defend them, their blood to defend us) and when we defeat an enemy we don’t occupy and rebuild them…but we do make them pay. Through the nose. With usury. In blood and treasure.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan29 Comments

Team Pudding Brain has been caught transporting around the USA large numbers of single, fit male illegal immigrants. This is actually against the law – as Rep Dan Crenshaw pointed out, an impeachable offense.

I’m not sure how serious Crenshaw is – he may just be putting out some boilerplate in an election year. And I think a lot of people would say that Biden should be impeached for breaking the law. But, that would be wrong. And our Amazona gonna love this:

Joe Biden should be impeached for failure to see that the laws are faithfully enforced. That is right there in the Constitution. It isn’t ambiguous: the President shall take care that the laws are faithfully enforced. In short, we’d be impeaching him for violating his oath of office. Cool, huh?

And to me it is a crucial point of principal: our government is increasingly lawless. Officials of it do whatever it is they think they can get away with. This is destroying the very fabric of our nation and so it is necessary for us to fight it out on the issue of rule of law. Of course, it is usually difficult to do this because most of the time you don’t have a handy case easily understood. We do now. The American people are aware of illegal immigration. They are aware that when Joe came in there was a huge surge in border crossings…what they don’t know is that Team Biden is refusing to enforce the law. That these people are not just being cut lose but are being transported by the government to their illegal release point. The issue is tailor made for us – and it can be made even more dramatic by highlighting what some of these people will end up doing over the next year (you know a percentage of them are mere criminals).

We impeach Biden on the accusation that he didn’t enforce the laws per his oath of office, we’ll win the PR battle – and then watch Democrats immolate themselves asserting that the President doesn’t have to enforce the law. Mark my words on it: they will lash themselves to the mast on this. They are committed to lawlessness. They will die on that hill. So, let’s help them do so.

War for Ukraine? Not interested. Neither, I think, are most people – and here the old line GOP (McConnell, eg) is entirely out of step with the base. This does surprise me as Mitch is usually pretty sensitive to where the political wind is blowing. There is no rally ’round the flag here. We are not in any sense of the word a unified nation: we are at each other’s throats and until we resolve our domestic conflicts we’d better walk small on the world stage…but it seems as if bureaucratic inertia is moving us to a risk of war. Our real hope is that Putin sees it isn’t worth it…that a dying American Ruling Class may end up doing something very stupid and so he’d better give it a rest. Fingers crossed on this one.

Niel Young, whom you are surprised to find still alive, demanded that Spotify remove his music. And most of his fans went, “what the heck is Spotify?”. Young was upset that Spotify carries Rogan’s show, which dares to cast doubt on the official Covid narrative. So, the man who once sung about facing off against Nixon’s soldiers is now an Establishment shill. Pathetic – but hippies always tend to be that, don’t they?

There is probably no liquid water on Mars. They thought they had detected some, but Mars is simply too cold. I really don’t expect us to find much on Mars – certainly no life. It has the materials for us to live, but only if we can resolve the gravity and radiation issues.

An American Foreign Policy

Mark Noonan12 Comments

Bismarck allegedly once said that there is a special providence for fools, drunkards and the United States of America. If he did say it then it was because he could see how very lucky the United State was and is: moated east and west by oceans and with harmless neighbors north and south, the United States could always pick and choose which foreign affairs to take an interest in. Meanwhile, Bismarck’s Prussia-become-Germany had to contend with Russia, France, Austria-Hungary, Italy, Britain and a host of smaller powers all on German’s doorstep or very close by. It was a nightmare maze to navigate through (made more nightmarish by Bismarck, but he didn’t see it that way). Bismarck died in 1898 – which, as it turns out, was the year the United States decided that being blessed by geography just wasn’t going to cut it.

There was nothing particularly wrong with ejecting the Spanish from Cuba and Puerto Rico in 1898. There was also no particular need to do it. But at least it fell in line with the general idea of the Monroe Doctrine and a long-held American ideal that the Americas should no longer be the colonial possession of Europeans. But that wasn’t really why we went into that war: it was merely the excuse. The reason we went into the war was because a segment of American political leaders felt it was vital for America to enter global competition. The concept, boiled down, was that if we didn’t force our way on to the world stage, we’d start to decline as a nation. Cuba was the excuse – but all along what was wanted was Manila and the gateway to China.

And so we did it – and placed ourselves in the position of caring about China and that meant dealing with Japan and Britain and Russia and fussing about who would govern what in the western Pacific and east Asia. I think that most of us were taught that this was fundamentally a good thing – that the USA had to get involved. But now that I think back on those lessons in high school history, they never did get around to telling us why we had to do it. It was just an assertion that as a mature great power, we should be involved and if we didn’t, disaster would follow.

I try to think of what disasters would have been worse than Communist China, the Korean and Vietnam wars (not to mention things like the battles of Okinawa and Saipan) had we stayed home. Remember, Pearl Harbor was struck because it based the American fleet which was set to relieve the American garrison in the Philippines…but if there wasn’t an American garrison there? If the Spanish still ruled Manila or the Filipinos fully ruled themselves at that time? What would be the reason for attacking the American fleet at Pearl Harbor? Can’t really think of one.

Now, one can argue that Japanese rule of the Philippines and Indonesia would be bad. No real argument there. But China’s rule of Tibet is bad – anyone saying we have to go to war with China to free Tibet? The point I’m making: the supposed need for the USA to expend blood and treasure to save foreigners from oppression seems a little selectively applied. Either it is our policy, or it isn’t. If it is, then it is time to war with China. If it isn’t…then what the heck have we been doing for the last century? Being involved. And that seems to be it.

I bring all this up because now people are telling us we have to confront Russia in Ukraine. Saw a Tweet from a bluecheck Neocon today basically comparing the situation to Hitler’s rise to power. I’m really rather tired of that sort of thing – Hitler was a unique threat which will never arise again. The peculiar circumstances of his rise no longer exist and can’t be replicated. Hitler, of course, stepped into the European power vacuum opened by the overthrow of the Hoehzollern’s of Germany and the dissolution of the Hapsburg Monarchy of Austria-Hungary. That particular situation has now been absorbed into the European equilibrium (mostly by Stalin, as it turns out: he moved whole populations around in 1945 to make the nations of central Europe compact ethnic nations no longer having a biological title deed to lands outside their borders: some times brutality can get things done). It should also be noted that the power vacuum was largely created by us – it was our insistence on the overthrow of the Hohenzollern’s and the dissolution of the Hapsburgs which created the vacuum. Had we stayed out, the Franco-British would have had to engage in a negotiated peace in the middle of 1918.

Anyways – we’re once again being told we must get involved. The safety of the world is at stake!

Really? How so?

How, that is, does Putin absorbing the Donbas really alter the world in some intrinsically negative manner? That plenty of people in the area don’t want to be ruled by Putin I take as a given. But I don’t understand our interest in it. Seems to me that if Putin is trying to re-cobble together the Czarist Empire then Ukraine should be looking to Poland and the Baltic States to form a coalition to stop it. I doubt much that Putin wants a general war. He’d like to detach the Donbas with minimal fighting. But Poland and Ukraine with 80 million people against Russia’s 146 million is probably far more than Putin wants to tangle with. Ukraine can probably get at least some interest – if not direct help – from Turkey, Greece, Romania, Hungary, Germany, France and Britain; all of whom have a varying interest in keeping Russia curbed (the closer they are to Russia, the greater the interest). A bit of firm diplomacy by Ukraine should easily be able to get Russia to back off.

That they don’t seem to be able to do this and that they lack sufficient arms to stand up to Russia is a problem. But how is it an American problem? Ukraine has been independent for 30 years: that was plenty of time for them to measure up a possible Russian attack and prepare the means to meet it. I get it that they are wracked by corruption (including corruption where they have paid off Americans – most infamously Hunter Biden – for influence) and have rather floundered around with an aging military force…but, once again: how is this an American problem? In fact – given how corrupt Ukraine is, what benefit to the people of the Ukraine in our propping up their corrupt system which didn’t even prepare the military means to defend Ukraine?

America needs an American foreign policy. That is: a policy which locates what the American interests are and then vigorously defends them. Far more worrisome for America than Russia attacking Ukraine is China buying influence throughout Latin America. It is a problem if, say, Panama’s government is purchased by China and closes the Canal to our ships. It is, then, in our interest to see to is that the government of Panama retains sufficient independence to prevent such an occurrence.

I’m completely done with this idea that America must be involved in this, that or the other foreign land. Outside the Americas, our interests are few and mostly relate to seaborne trade…which is menaced only by China’s rising fleet. We should be working on ensuring we can swiftly put China’s fleet at the bottom of the sea…but we’re working on whether or not to send troops to Ukraine, which doesn’t help us in any way against China. It isn’t like Ukraine will send troops to help us against China. Forget about that. We pull Ukraine’s chestnuts out of the fire here and then ten years from now we go to war with China, do not look for a Ukrainian army to help us out – more than likely we’ll see Ukraine selling war materials to China.

After 124 years, it is time to write off America as a global power. It hasn’t worked out for us. It has cost us a fortune in blood and treasure and those who don’t hate us despise us. Our position in the world couldn’t possibly be worse had we, in 1898, decided to not care about who ruled in Cuba. And it probably would be a lot better. At all events, it is time to give it a try. Try an American foreign policy: cross us in our interests and we’ll kill you. Not attacking our interests? Good luck and God bless.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan9 Comments

I’d like to say I don’t know where the time went – but, I do: still writing! Kings and Queen (Book V) will be out soon so I was doing some last touches on that…but, honestly, I’m already deep into Book IX. Not only that, but my granddaughter said my stories needed a dragon, so I took Celeste’s daughter Aleste and with assist from the granddaughter, I’m writing Aleste and the Icecrystal Dragons. So, hey guys! How ya been?

Anyways – so, Smollett is guilty, as we all knew he was as soon as the story broke. I’m sure if someone did some digging they could find something that almost amounts to an actual hate crime by a GOPer, but even then, not really. The trouble the Left has here is that we’re not racists. I pointed out on Twitter that if Smollett had actually gone to MAGA country he would have learned that we’re very nice people who don’t give a darn what you do as long as you don’t adversely affect housing prices. Keep your act together and we’re cool.

There’s a poll out for youngsters about their willingness to be friends with people who have different political views and for Democrat kiddies, they are overwhelmingly against being friends with Republicans. Part of this, I’m sure, is peer pressure: they don’t want to be known as someone who is friends with Republicans because all the cool kids don’t have any Republican friends. But it is also of the nature of the Left: hate is what motivates them. It is why they do what they do.

Some people are pointing out how horrible the crime is in Democrat cities and are asking when the DA’s in those towns will finally say, “enough”. I tell them: don’t hold your breath. It is the Left’s opinion that the prosperity and safety of middle class America is a false front on an intrinsically evil society. The Left is letting the criminals out to prey because they believe that it will help generate an acute social crisis which will turn people away from the American system. It is Lenin’s old dictum: the worse, the better. There is a fly in the ointment, however: the Left is the Ruling Class. So, when the people do turn against the system, these junior league Bolsheviks will find all of the hatred directed their way.

Team Pudding Brain has their solution to the inflation problem: order the MSM to talk about how it isn’t a problem. And like proper lapdogs, the MSM is going right along with this order. I’m not sure how well telling us to disbelieve our lying eyes will work. I suspect it won’t. One smart guy did point out that Biden hasn’t remotely hit bottom: apparently, he shoveled out some money for parents and didn’t broadcast too widely that the money is their child tax deduction for 2021…which means that when people go to do their taxes in April of 2022, they’ll find that they already spent their child deduction. I’m sure that’ll go over real well.

Lots of people are noting that Latino voters are dropping the Dems. For males the Latino vote is almost mirroring the vote for white males. If you really drill down to it, the only really strong demographics for the Democrats are African-Americans and white, college educated women. And even the black vote is starting to get a few cracks in it. I don’t think that the Democrats can win much with that. As for the Latinos – don’t expect them to be Buckley-ite Conservatives. They just want law and order, good schools and a vibrant economy. In other words, what the Democrats would at least try to get for them before they were taken over by the aforementioned Bolsheviks. It is, though, our opening…and the GOP should push hard for Latino votes. A vote in 2022 for a good economy can be turned by, say, 2028 into a vote for limited government.

Russia is making waves in Ukraine and it looks like Pudding Brain will roll over for them. In this, probably for the best: can you imagine how catastrophic our defeat would be if we got into a shooting war with the current crew in charge? Also, we don’t have a strategic interest in who governs the Donbas. OTOH, the case can be made that we should stand against military aggression, as such. Not so sure I’m on board with that. Used to be. Maybe not any longer. Some things have to be worked out and war is just politics by other means. Putin – correctly – sees control of the Donbas as vital to his national security: the resources there are vital. Our largest strategic interest is to contain China. Sending an army to Kiev doesn’t serve that interest. Meanwhile, our useless allies won’t send an army…mostly because they haven’t got one. And, finally, the reason Putin is moving is because he knows he’s only got a short time – the miracle of having such a useless American President might never happen again. He kept quiet for Trump because he knew – from Trump’s actions – that Trump wouldn’t put up with it. Putin knows that he can walk all over Biden.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan60 Comments

I’m getting some feedback on “Mirrors” and I have to say I’m pleased – people are liking it. Wish it would sell more, of course! But, the main thing is that I’ve written a story that people like. And I’m very grateful for that.

So, the Ukraine thing – looks more and more like it is another self-own by the Democrats: it is the Bidens who might be in jeopardy, not Trump. My view: in any controversy regarding Trump, always work on the assumption that he’s the guy who didn’t break the law. We’ve long heard about Biden’s son getting sweet heart deals in Ukraine…and my bet is that this NSA “whistleblower” was a desperate rear-guard to try and keep it from coming out. RSM has thoughts.

Patriots ditch Antonio Brown after a mere 11 days with rising allegations of bad behavior. I don’t know what is true in this – it’ll come out over time, I’m sure.

We’re close to flipping the 9th Circuit – this is why we elected Trump and why we have to re-elect him. Once the Courts are firmly in the hands of judges who will enforce the law not only will the left no longer be able to impose their policies via judicial fiat, but we’ll be able to start rolling back the previous, unconstitutional rulings liberal judges made. All those years the Tru-Cons told us they’d do this…and they never, ever did: Trump has nearly done it in three years. All that was lacking was the will.

“Ad Astra” has a good review. I might have to go see it – and as the Progs are simply hating Sallone’s latest “First Blood” installment, I’ll probably have to check it out, too.

Trump’s approval rating is better than Obama’s at this point in his term. And this with, I’m very certain, polls cooked to make Trump look worse than he is.