Campaign 2012

The Fruits of 2010

Mark Noonan56 Comments

It wasn’t just a House majority – from the AP:

The odds of getting re-elected have gotten better for Rep. Renee Ellmers and other Republican freshmen in the House – thanks to GOP calculations in redrawing congressional maps.

The 47-year-old nurse who ousted seven-term Democrat Bob Etheridge by fewer than 1,500 votes last November will be running next year in a newly drawn North Carolina district that’s less swing and more Republican. The outlook is brighter too for Texas Rep. Blake Farenthold, a conservative talk radio host who edged 14-term Democrat Solomon Ortiz by just 797 votes. Farenthold will find more Republicans in a Corpus Christi-based district that now stretches north…

Lost in all the hoopla over 2010 is the fact that while Democrats were beaten badly in the House, they were crushed in the States.  The GOP is in total political control of 26 States and has a good deal of power in most of the remainder – and this re-districting will be the first since the 1921 re-districting where the GOP mostly controls the process.  For 90 years we Republicans have mostly run in the political universe Democrats made for us…but outside of a few Democrat strong-holds (Illinois, eg), that is no longer the case.  It was at the State level where the revolution really took hold…and the failed, $20 million effort by Democrats to reverse that revolution in Wisconsin shows that Democrat power in America mostly rests on the fact that we are still waiting for a Presidential election to make it fully national.

In the article, you can find quotes by Democrats who are talking big about how this or that re-districting effort will help them…as if they really have a chance of re-capturing the House in 2012 because Obama will bring out the liberal voters…none of whom, of course, are dismayed by what has happened since 2008.  Fat chance, Democrats…you’ll be lucky if you only lost a dozen House and half a dozen Senate seats next year.  And you only get that if things go really well and Obama is re-elected…there is  just as good a chance of 30 House and 12 Senate seats falling to the GOP.

We will win this Revolution, Americans.  The people are on our side and we’ve obtained the power to ensure that Democrats aren’t able to lie, cheat and steal their way in to continued power.  We will have them – and we will restore America.

 

The New Yorker Upset That Perry Has Testicles

Mark Noonan66 Comments

Sorry for the crudity, but I really can’t describe this any other way – from The New Yorker via Ann Althouse:

…Perry is the first graduate of Texas A & M to govern Texas. When he was a freshman, in 1968, the student body looked much like him: white, male, determinedly rural. Aggie jokes of the country-bumpkin variety are still standard fare in Texas. (“How many Aggies does it take to screw in a light bulb? One, but he gets three hours of credit.”) At A & M, Perry ran the winning campaign of his friend John Sharp for student-body president. In response, Sharp got his friend elected one of the campus’s five “yell leaders”—male cheerleaders. Perry considered being a yeller the higher office. A typical yell is: “Squads left! Squads right! / Farmers, farmers, we’re all right! / Load, ready, aim, fire, BOOM!” During tense moments in a football game, yellers grab their balls and shout, “Squeeze, Aggies!”…

As one comment noted over at Instapundit put it, the worry here for liberals is that Perry apparently has a pair to squeeze.

If you read the whole article, it is just a crude attempt to paint Governor Perry as some sort of overly masculine cowboy-barbarian…not at all like sweet, gentle, Ivy League-educated George Bush.  To be sure, “Squeeze, Aggies!” is bizarre – but, then again, its Texas.  The bottom line is that they tend to shoot at the people who need to be shot and back up those who deserve help; you really have to be some post-modernist metrosexual to get your nighty in a knot over Texas…so, naturally, liberals are well knotted.

They are deathly afraid of Rick Perry….perhaps even more fearful than they have ever been about Sarah Palin.  The thing about Perry (and Palin and Bachmann and Cain) is that they are just regular folks from the heartland who live and believe like regular Americans.  If they think about the Ruling Class, at all, it is with a mixture of bemusement and contempt.  People like Perry really will go to DC to change things…and not care a whit whether or not the Ruling Class is offended by it.

And it will be one heck of a lot of fun to watch…

Obama Weak Against Romney, Perry, Bachmann…and Ron Paul

Mark Noonan9 Comments

Goodness, this is getting rather pathetic for a sitting President – from Gallup:

President Barack Obama is closely matched against each of four possible Republican opponents when registered voters are asked whom they would support if the 2012 presidential election were held today. Mitt Romney leads Obama by two percentage points, 48% to 46%, Rick Perry and Obama are tied at 47%, and Obama edges out Ron Paul and Michele Bachmann by two and four points, respectively.

When you’re going to have to dog fight with Ron Paul to retain the Presidency, you are really dealing with “anyone but Obama” as the prime choice for 2012.  Its getting so that we could nominate a ham sandwich and win.

Exit question:  what does Obama do to change the dynamic?

Fearfully, the Democrats Creep Towards 2012

Mark Noonan26 Comments

Clarice Feldman over at The American Thinker neatly captures the mood:

I think sentient Democrats are watching their party’s chances in 2012 slip away, and had they not made such a big deal of claiming all opposition to  Obama was racist in motivation and effect, they would now be urging him to quit and seeking a  new contender for his office.  Like Coleridge’s ancient Mariner, however, they can only stand on deck with that albatross around their neck watching both the White House and the Senate slip from their grasp just as did so many state governorships and the House of Representatives.

In the meantime the Ship of State runs  aground on the shoals of  incompetence,  corruption and laughable idiocy…

Ed Morrissey is also on the same wavelength, writing about the prospect of Obama not seeking a second term.  Farfetched?  Certainly…but it has happened before, most notably in 1968 when President Johnson surrendered to his foes (foreign and domestic) and withdrew from contention.  For Democrats it is the summer of discontent – nothing has gone right, and nothing looks like it will go right…and none of them really know what to do about it.

Some liberals out there, I’m sure, are hoping that the downfall of the Gaddafi regime will give Obama a boost.  It will – but not much, and not for long.  Thing about “leading from behind” is that any attempt to take credit for success looks silly…as if you were afraid to stick your neck out, but them leap to the front, claiming credit when things work out.  Also, if handing us bin Laden’s head on a platter only gave Obama a temporary boost, the downfall of Gaddafi doesn’t look to do more than move the needle for a a day or two (yesterday, Rasmussen had Obama approval/disapproval at 44/55…we’ll watch and see).

It must feel a bit like being in a car driven by a maniac…you want to reach out and grab the wheel, but you’re afraid if you do, the car will crash. All sensible Democrats must realize by now that Obama was massively oversold.  Also, that the concept of spending money to cure a recession/depression leaves much to be desired.  Having now a clearly unfit leader and an economy which can only be fixed by ditching 80 years of liberal politico-economic policy, they are rather boxed in.  They have to stay in the car, they have to let Obama hold the wheel…and they have to defend policies which have clearly failed.  Can’t be fun for them.

Unless there is an unforeseen turn around in our economic picture there is a huge hurdle to Obama being re-elected next year (stories that his personal popularity will trump distaste for his actual policies are asinine…no one will re-elect a likeable failure).  How Democrats will play it remains to be seen…but if by May of next year you start seeing Obama fund raising drying up while Senate Democrats are awash in cash, then you know what has happened:  the party is writing off Obama and trying to keep the GOP below 60 Senators, if not out of the majority.

And, of course, Morrissey could be right – Obama might quit.  About 1000-1 again, but it is a real possibility.  So, too, is a real primary challenge.  It could get mighty interesting next year (we’ll leave the prospect of a GOP split – and still having a GOP victory – for another day).

 

 

Pennsylvania Poll: Obama Approval at 35%

Mark Noonan7 Comments

From The Morning Call:

President Barack Obama, who political experts say will need a win in Pennsylvania to retain the White House, dipped to 35 percent approval among the state’s registered voters, according to a Muhlenberg College poll released Friday…

…f there is any silver lining in the poll for Obama, it’s that 31 percent of Pennsylvanians say their vote in November 2012 will depend on who the Republican candidate is. And Obama still slightly edges out an anonymous GOP contender 36 percent to 31 percent…

If your “silver lining” is that you’re scoring 36% against a yet-to-be-determined opponent, then it is pretty tarnished silver.

To be sure, Pennsylvania is a pretty blue State – but it does have some red leanings, as shown by the election of rock-ribbed conservative Pat Toomey to the Senate.  More than likely, Obama will be able to pull out the win in Pennsylvania – GOP hopes State-wide usually falter because of Philadelphia, which is completely under the control of the corrupt, Democrat machine and can usually be counted on to deliver the State for the Democrat (as I think they did in 2004 when the only place Kerry won decisively was Philadelphia, with Bush either carrying or being in a close tie in the rest of the State).  But, that said, this polling shows that Obama will have to fight for the State – money and time will have to be spent there which Obama will desperately need elsewhere.

The way the electoral map is building up for 2012, Obama is going to be spread mighty thin and he’s going to have to thread quite a small needle to win.  He still very much can do it…even if he loses the popular vote, he can cobble together 270 electoral votes…but only if Pennsylvania is in his pocket.  The GOP should start planning to pour massive resources in to that State…even if we don’t win it, it will weaken Obama elsewhere and make our task easier.

HAT TIP:  Hot Air

Poll: 49% of Latinos Support Obama

Mark Noonan5 Comments

From Newsmax:

Hispanic-Americans are souring on the Obama presidency, according to a Gallup poll that shows just 49 percent of them approve of his job performance.

That’s a huge decline since spring of 2009, when Obama registered the 85 percent approval among Latinos…

And now you know why Obama enacted amnesty by decree…he’s trying to shore that up because you can just about bet on it that if Obama only wins 49% of the Latino vote in 2012 he’ll be defeated.

Palin to Announce on the 3rd?

Mark Noonan28 Comments

From the Iowa Republican:

Although they claim to have no inside information, the volunteers that comprise Iowa’s Organize 4 Palin group are convinced the former Alaska Governor is running for President.  They also believe it is very likely she will announce her candidacy at a Tea Party event near Des Moines on September 3rd.

“It certainly makes a lot of sense for her to announce on that date,” said Richard Rogers, the 3rd District Co-Chair for Organize 4 Palin.  “It will be the third anniversary of her speech at the Republican National Convention.  That’s what launched her onto the national scene.  Announcing at that event would certainly be appropriate.  The timing is right.”…

They’ve had to move the event to a large venue because of the large crowd expected…and if she is going to run for President, this would be the place and time to do it.

 

Poll: Obama Down 6 Points to “Generic” Republican

Mark Noonan9 Comments

From Rasmussen:

…The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds the generic Republican earning 48% of the vote, while the president picks up support from 42%.  Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and another seven percent (7%) are undecided…

Remember, fellow GOPers, I’m mostly linking to these kinds of posts to annoy and depress our liberals…don’t you get cocky:  we’ve got one very hard fight coming up in 2012.

Obama Feels the Heat

Mark Noonan9 Comments

From Obama’s Magical Misery Tour:

 

Yesterday, at work, I took a call from a customer and after relatively quickly disposing of the issue at hand, I was treated to a 30 minute lecture on how Obama is ruining our nation.  I, naturally, could not comment on this – as an official representative of my employer, it was not for me to engage in partisan politics, regardless of my personal views.  So, I just kind of let it wash over me and after the customer had got it off the chest, I ended the call.  This wasn’t the first such unsolicited anti-Obama rhetoric I had received.

I don’t think in all my life I’ve ever come across a President who has so greatly angered so many.  While there are those who still worship at the shopworn altar of The One, the bulk of the people can be classed two ways – those who have tuned Obama out, and those who are going to crawl across broken glass on their knees to eject him from office next year.

In this, the massive build up of Obama during the 2008 campaign – which Obama gleefully joined in (remember, the seas were going to start to recede?) – has boomeranged on the President.  He was sold to the public as the answer to all our hopes and dreams – the cure for all that ailed us.  It was an impossible standard to measure up to…and Obama’s problem is not just that he didn’t measure up to the hype (really, the lies…everyone who pumped him up in 2008 knew darn well he wasn’t what they claimed), but that he didn’t even come close.  In addition to this broken dream there is also the growing public perception that Obama has nothing but contempt for the American people (in this I think the majority is mistaken…he doesn’t know enough about us to have contempt for us; he appears just plain and simple ignorant of how life in America outside the government/academic bubble is lived).  It makes for a poisonous stew…and it is reflected in Obama’s cratering approval rating.

In sum, Obama is in deep political trouble, and I don’t know how he gets out of it.  We’ll see what he does – and what the GOP does.