Three Weeks Left!

If you need a poll to make you feel good, Zogby has it Biden +3 over Trump…which works out, at least, to an easy EC win for Trump. Zogby was pretty good in 2016: but I don’t trust any polls this year. Even if they are being honest, I really do think they are just missing some huge shifts in the electorate.

Keep in mind that Hillary only got about 340,000 fewer votes than Obama did in 2012 but this worked out to dropping the Democrat total from 51.1% to 48.2%. Trump got 2 million more votes than Romney, and that was all the difference because of who and where they were: white, working class voters in the Midwest. And sure they frauded up Hillary’s total, but they also frauded up Obama’s…so, it probably all worked out in the wash. The bottom line isn’t that Hillary did so bad, but that Trump did so good. The joker in the deck for 2020 is can Trump add black and Latino working class votes to his white working class total? There are some indications he is: but it doesn’t show up in the polls. If Trump can push his African-American vote north of 10% and get near or over 40% of the Latino vote, this could end up being quite a different election than anyone expects.

Another unknowable is that in 2012, about 2.2 million third party ballots were cast but it rocketed up to 7.7 million in 2016. Those 5.5 million votes: where do they go? If its about 50/50, then it doesn’t matter. But if its 60/40 for one over the other, it could be decisive. They didn’t vote Trump in 2016 because they just couldn’t go there – but they also rejected Establishment Hillary. Do they now go, “I guess the Establishment is great” or “well, Trump turned out to not be nearly as bad as I thought he’d be”? If I had to bet, I ‘d bet the latter. Especially as I’ll bet of the 5.5 million extra votes, a huge majority were traditional GOP votes – some are now gone forever because of the evolution of Never Trump to I’m a Democrat has been completed. But how many? There is no way to know – and, once again, this probably won’t show in polling.

Voter registration trends have been remarkable, and almost all in the GOP’s favor. We’ve probably lost Colorado and Virginia for a generation or more, but trends indicate we may be on the way to locking down Florida, North Carolina and Ohio while making deep inroads in Pennsylvania and holding our own in Arizona (for a while there, AZ voter trends were against the GOP…but the past 18 months or so have seen a resurgence of the GOP so we’re now back to par for 2016). As for early voting and VBM: I’ve seen this and that. Most of what I’ve seen indicates some good news for the GOP…but I place small weight on it: just because a ballot was returned by a person of a particular party, doesn’t mean it’s going your way.

And that is another thing which I think the pollsters are missing: the number of Democrats who are now functional Republicans. Voter registration trends indicate that people are far more switching GOP to Dem than Dem to GOP…but not everyone is going to bother themselves to switch registration, especially if there isn’t an intense primary battle to be fought. Just because a State has a Dem voter advantage of, say, 200,000 doesn’t mean you’ve got that many Democrats. You’ve just got a lot of people who haven’t bothered to make it official. But their returned VBM ballot goes into the Democrat pile…until it is opened and counted.

Trump, himself, seems to be in a good mood. His team exudes confidence. OTOH, Team Biden is floating Hillary for SecDef and Cuomo for AG – measuring the drapes, as it were. Or just trying to score some excitement in a flailing campaign? I don’t really know. Biden’s campaign is ridiculous: he’s clearly too old for it. He could get bigger crowds, of course: but that means more advance planning and that means he’s committed to be there…but if he’s sundowning just before showtime, it would be a disaster to have 10,000 people waiting for a guy who either can’t show, or shows up clearly senile. So, small venues and only little advance notice (one of his events in Arizona literally had no one show up for it). If Biden wins, it means that a massive campaign of lies can get just about anyone the Ruling Class wants over the top: this would bode ill for our chances long term.

Biden won’t be forced out right away if he wins, by the way: not if Harris has anything to say about it. She’ll want it as soon as possible, but she’ll also want two terms for herself: and that means Joe goes in January (highly unlikely) or Harris waits until January 21st, 2023 (a VP taking over for less than two years of a term is still eligible to be elected twice). No one can move against Joe unless Harris signs off on it: that is the way the 25th is written. VP can’t do it alone, but no one can do it without VP. So, Joe wins and it becomes Harris’ decision on when to act…unless Joe dies. But as long as he isn’t dead, they’ll keep him in there until Harris is ready and all deals have been cut.

Will they pack the courts? Only if they also get the Senate and even a Trump loss doesn’t ensure that. Everyone has signed off on the GOP losing CO and AZ while the GOP gains Alabama: net loss of one and the Democrats need two more. They’re making their play in ME, AK, SC and NC for those seats. I doubt they’ll win any of them. OTOH, there is the outside chance the GOP holds on in AZ and maybe even scores a miracle win in MI. Be that as it may: no Senate, no packing. If they get the Senate, they will try: but the move is unpopular and the GOP will fight tooth and nail to prevent it: this is something even the Establishment squishes would go to the mat on. OTOH, a Majority Leader Schumer has a Dem-friendly map for 2022; only three Democrat seats will be at any risk. But if the Senate is 51-49 come January, which Democrat walks the plank to pack the courts? In other words: packing is more easily said than done.

Now, to end on a high note: suppose Trump wins? It means that for the next four years Trump will continue to deregulate and will have years where he can weed out the worst of the bureaucrats: that is the most important thing he can do. It rolls back Democrat power and allows our side to compete on a more level playing field. And we’ll need that: if Trump wins, then we’ll have to do one of the hardest things in American politics: win three in a row in 2024. It rarely happens. It rarely happens even when the economy is good and the incumbent is popular. In recent times, only Reagan managed to pull it off. Clinton, Bush and Obama all failed to install their chosen successor into office. The person the Dems will nominate in 2024 will be very far left – and so we’re going to be against the wall trying to stop it: getting rid of backstabbers in DC will help us a lot.

Anyways: be of good cheer! God actually gets to decide how things turn out in the long run.

It is Now Campaign 2020

Forget the Experts, I think: what will happen on November 3rd, being in the future, is unknown. I personally think that Trump is heading for a big win. I’ve got a few data points which suggest it…but so much in in flux that no one can really say what the public mind is. But, in the end, I expect the Convention themes to play out. The Democrats were all about how dark and miserable the times are and how we must all repent of our sins…the Republicans were all about fighting through the bad times because we’re the greatest nation, ever. I suspect that a majority still loves America.

I also suspect that a majority is turned off by endless riots. I mean, for goodness sake, you’ve made your point, Lefties! Give it a freaking rest. But someone in the DNC said that the riots would turn people away from Trump (in fact, Biden’s campaign intern for Twitter pretty much Tweeted exactly that out this morning). And, hey: maybe the people will? I don’t think so, but anything in possible. But Biden’s recent half-hearted condemnation of the violence (not the riots or the rioters) indicates that Team Biden is worried about how things are going…Biden’s scheduled campaign appearance in Minnesota, which last went GOP in 1972, it a gigantic warning bell. But Team Biden has also apparently ordered the rioters to turn it up to 11…they practically assaulted people leaving the White House yesterday.

Trump seems happy, engaged and geared up. Democrats are already talking up not having debates at all. Biden mostly remains out of sight. Harris gave the response to Trump’s acceptance speech. I’m feeling pretty good. Secrets is up for pre-order (hint, hint, guys; go buy it!).

Let’s have some fun and then win the election.

 

More Than Likely, Trump Has Already Won

I keep in touch with some of the Experts on Twitter…not the really famous ones because, well, they’re all insane. But, still, Experts who are sure that Trump is doomed…all their talk these days is already post-mortem: how did Trump lose; what comes after, blah, blah, blah. Every now and again I point out, in a short comment, that Trump is going to win. I never get a response to such comments.

What amazes me is how sure they are – and, hey, maybe they’re right? But they’ll only be right by accident. They have their charts and graphs and polls…and it is all, in my view, quite meaningless. I checked the Real Clear Politics average of polls before election day, 2016: of the eleven polls used, ten showed a Hillary win…some by a solid margin. Now, the election was just about a tie…Trump won big in the Electoral College and Hillary, via California and New York City, eked out a popular vote win. The bottom line is that it was anyone’s race…a bit of change here or there, and the result would have been different. Given this, a series of eleven polls, done honestly, would have shown four or five with Trump in the lead. There’s just no two ways about it: a poll of the same population using roughly the same criteria shouldn’t come out very different from any other poll. Ten of eleven for Hillary. Either just stupendous coincidence…or deliberate falsehood.

I go with “deliberate falsehood”. And I can already hear the objection: “they wouldn’t all lie.” Yes, they darned well would, and do. Do you think they care about their credibility? Does anyone in the Ruling Class? These guys brazenly lie about everything…but they’re going to be straight shooters with their polls? Give me a break.

This is especially true when you look back to earlier in 2016 when they all had Hillary up like 10-12 points. Rely on it, guys: millions upon millions of people did not change their mind about Hillary between July and November 2016. She was an entirely known quantity. Everyone had already made up their minds about her the moment she announced. Her vote total was always pretty much baked in – the only question of 2016 was whether any GOPer would either outpace her vote or, as Trump did, flip enough in the crucial States to take it all. And anyone with real data knew how the election was going very far in advance: it really surprised no one in the know. Remember: she cancelled her fireworks display. She knew. Or at least her team knew: they might have kept it from her. What will happen on November 3rd of this year is also pretty much baked in. Outside something stupendous happening, people already know Joe Biden and Donald Trump and have made up their minds about them. Trump has either already lost, or already won.

I think he’s already won: and it’ll get huge amount of pushback if you mention it to the Experts, but the tale is in the primary vote. There’s no way that was by accident…that, as I said before, was a test-run of Trump’s November turnout machine..and he’s turning out people in droves, including many who never or rarely vote. These are people who will not change their mind and vote for Biden all of a sudden. In my view, what you see in political reporting is just noise…partly just to get you to watch or click, but mostly just trying to mask reality in the hope that something, anything, will turn up to derail Trump.

This should really surprise no one: but, it does and will. Mostly because the Experts, almost to a man and woman, still view Trump as entirely illegitimate. They then work back from there to find reasons to justify their notion. It becomes an endless feedback loop of false data reinforcing itself. Trump is the President; the power of incumbancy is massive. Trump has a gigantic money supply; vastly more than he had in 2016 and a virtually unlimited ability to raise more as needed. Trump has a loyal base of voters who support him, in contrast to Biden’s voters who are almost entirely about voting against Trump. The Democrat base is going insane and now they are percolating up with demands to remove Mount Rushmore. I mean, seriously: these people are freaking nuts. And the more nuts they get, the more fearful average Americans get. Gun sales are setting records…and I suspect that a lot of people who bought guns were not part of Trump’s core support, which is already largely armed. No, this is suburban wine moms and their husbands fearful that a mob is going to loot their house. Most will still vote Democrat…but I bet some millions don’t. They either stay home or very quietly pull the lever for Trump.

And we’ll see how it all comes out. Personally, I expect to be sitting here on November 3rd and watching Florida called for Trump at about 8:30 pm Eastern, with the MSMers holding off on calling Pennsylvania as they wait for the Biden campaign to concede. I could be wrong but I don’t think I am.

The American Choice

If you’re needing a little morale boost:

Interviews with more than 50 state, district and county Republican Party chairs depict a version of the electoral landscape that is no worse for Trump than six months ago — and possibly even slightly better. According to this view, the coronavirus is on its way out and the economy is coming back. Polls are unreliable, Joe Biden is too frail to last, and the media still doesn’t get it.

“The more bad things happen in the country, it just solidifies support for Trump,” said Phillip Stephens, GOP chairman in Robeson County, N.C., one of several rural counties in that swing state that shifted from supporting Barack Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2016. “We’re calling him ‘Teflon Trump.’ Nothing’s going to stick, because if anything, it’s getting more exciting than it was in 2016.”

This year, Stephens said, “We’re thinking landslide.”

That does seem, on the face of it, rather a stretch. The official word is we’re too polarized as a nation to allow any candidate to get to landslide territory (let’s call it getting 56%+ of the vote). To a certain extent, this is obvious: the polarization is seen in the fact that the Left – which makes up the core of the Democrat party – considers the United States to be an inherently racist nation unworthy of support unless it becomes entirely Leftist. We on our side, of course, think the United States is inherently good and merely needs to live up to it’s founding ideals. That is quite a polar opposite view of the same set of facts.

But, in the end, how large is the Left? Meaning: how many people in the United States actually subscribe to the notion that America is inherently evil? That is what November will tell us. It might be a plurality. It might be either an Electoral or popular vote majority. If it is then not only do we lose, but we lose forever: if a majority consciously decides to install a government committed to acting on the assumption that America 1776-2020 is evil, then we’ve lost the fight. Its over: we just have to adjust ourselves to living in a new America which will be quite different from the old.

But, still, that is a pretty confident feeling quoted in the article, isn’t it? Now, to be sure, maybe someone is just trying to bamboozle: all political campaigns say things are going just swell no matter how doomed they are. But they do have some data points to back up their assertion: there is argument over just how many people signed up for Trump’s rally in Tulsa, but the bottom line is that many hundreds of thousands of people signed up for a venue holding less than 20,000 people. That’s a lot. None of us can conceive, even with popular music acts, Biden getting that kind of response. Then there’s things like voter engagement: over the ‘Rona lockdowns the campaigns were forced to go almost entirely online…and Team Trump simply blows Team Biden out of the water in online engagement. It isn’t just a little bit better: it is orders of magnitude better. I’ve also seen good data on GOP voter registration and time and again at Trump rallies, significant portions of attendees are Democrats or rare/new voters. I’ve always said look not at what people say, but at what they do: what people are doing is turning to Trump, at least in the data we can see. Only the public opinion polls are against Trump. Maybe they are right this time? If they are, Trump is going to be destroyed in November. Figure the odds they are right, though.

My view is this: people who aren’t Democrats but are Democrat-leaners – people who mostly vote Democrat but are not committed to the Democrat notion that America is inherently racist – are looking around at riots and absurd lockdowns (DeBlasio actually said – I’m not kidding – in response to Jews reopening their kid’s parks, that he won’t allow people to “take the law into their own hands”: this after allowing nuts-to-butts rioting and protesting by Leftwing groups) and perhaps reassessing just how bad Trump really is? I mean, sure he’s rude and crude and he’s not at all the nice, made-up politician mouthing bromides about peace, love and unity that these Democrat-leaners are used to voting for…but he isn’t the guy locking down people for stupid reasons nor allowing rioters to run amok in the city. How many such people, without ever admitting it, will pull the lever for Trump even if it is a mere rebuke to Democrats who have gone off the rails?

We’ll find out in November.

What Kills Us: Coronavirus or Bernie?

Die in a plague, or die in a Socialist Paradise? Tough choice, huh?

It does appear that Coronavirus is going to become a worldwide thing at this point: whatever measures were taken to keep it in the bottle have apparently failed…and if the brutal Chinese government couldn’t contain it, you can rely on it that no free government will be able to. Now it is just a matter of preparation and mitigation.

This does not look like a Black Death sort of plague…we’re not about to lose one third of the human population. But, it will cause a lot of deaths and a lot of dislocation to the economy. But, only temporary…the disease will run its course and die away in a population which builds up immunity to it. We’ll see how Trump does in this – a real crisis.

Meanwhile, Bernie is now the odds-on favorite for the Democrat nomination. Democrats are in a panic and there are plots and plans to undo Bernie…but, all for naught, I think. The Democrats simply can’t afford to lose the Bernie Bros. Knife Bernie and what may be a defeat in November becomes a catastrophic, generational loss.

Can Bernie win? Anything is possible – but I rate his chances of victory at about 1%. Right now, all over the MSM and social media, Democrats are defending Cuba’s government…because Bernie defended it and if he is to be the nominee, he can’t be left alone out there. But this action, right there, likely ensures Trump wins Florida. Meanwhile, the proposed ban on fracking – which Democrats are adopting entirely – likely kills Democrat chances in Pennsylvania and possibly Michigan. Where’s the path to victory? Bernie is talking about campaigning in Texas…in case you want to know where that’s going.

Open Thread

Democrats are convinced that Trump will lose because Bevin lost in Kentucky last night (presumptively: as of this moment, still no concession on the part of Bevin but with him behind 4,700 votes its unlikely he’ll prevail). The Democrats – and the Never Trump Tru-Con Experts – are sure of this because Bevin lost by being blown out in the ‘burbs…and that means Trump is toxic in the ‘burbs and – presto! – say hello to President Warren.

Not so fast: while Bevin was getting crushed in the ‘burbs, all the other GOP Statewide contenders were destroying their Democrat opponents. So, it looks as though it was merely Bevin who was unpopular. I hadn’t paid much attention to it all but what I’ve been able to find is that Bevin is, apparently, quite an abrasive personality and there wasn’t a single group he hadn’t offended at some time…his approval rating is something like 36%. So the real news is that Trump nearly dragged a political carcass across the finish line. And we got as our GOP consolation prize the new Attorney General of Kentucky, Daniel Cameron…who does appear to be quite an impressive man who should go far…that he’s the first GOP AG since 1948 and the first ever African-American AG for Kentucky is just icing on the cake.

OTOH: Virginia went pretty Blue last night – on the back of Democrat power in DC-dependent northern Virginia. I don’t know how we flip VA back to red…though Trump’s plan to move federal departments out of DC might help. My advice to VA people who don’t want their State to become East California is to set up South Virginia…break up the State. Let the Democrats have their DC suburbs.

Eric Ciaramella – recently outed by Don, Jr on Twitter – appears to be the whistleblower: and he’s what you expect…a partisan hack. This is why the Democrats and the MSM (BIRM) wanted to keep him anonymous. But it is absurd to keep him anonymous. We, the people, have an absolute right to know all relevant details about whomever is accusing any public official of corruption. It is the only way we’ll be able to tell if there is something real, or if its just a partisan hit job. As this whole impeachment thing is a partisan hit job, the quicker we get the truth out the quicker we can force the Democrats to drop the charade – which is what I expect they’ll do. I don’t know, of course, but I don’t believe the Democrats want to have a Senate trial where Cocaine Mitch will set the agenda.

ABC spiked the Epstein story in 2016 because prominent Democrats – including the Clintons in an election year – were involved. You know that’s why; I know that’s why: everyone knows that’s why. You weren’t at all surprised when the story broke about the cover up. Here are some things to think about:

1. It isn’t just Epstein. Rest assured there are lots and lots of other scandals the MSM is keeping a tight lid on because their revelation would put powerful Democrats at risk.

2. Those Conservatives who were only mildly critical – making comments about how this was just not a good look for ABC – are traitors. They are angling for MSM gigs and will knife us in the back if they think it’ll help secure one.

3. As the MSM is proven to be bald-faced, partisan liars…anyone who pays attention to their reporting, polls or analysis of politics is either monumentally stupid, or a liar, themselves.

From Carpe Donktum:

Remember when the entire media had a panic attack over Trumps comments on the Access Hollywood tape? While this was going on, those same people knew that Epstein was raping children… and then decided to cover it up.

As I’ve said: in relation to his opponents, Trump is the morally superior person.

Our Matt points out that Sondland’s changed testimony is not proof of an impeachable offense. I go a bit further: it proves Sondland’s a liar.

The Moral Necessity of Voting for Trump (and the GOP)

There is a lot of talk about morality and norms of late – mostly in relation to Trump and how he is destroying both. We’ve all seen it: the endless stream of opinions deploring how Trump is corrupting America and destroying what we are. The corollary to this is that we must do whatever we can to get rid of Trump…even to electing Democrats. The bottom line in all this: nothing can possibly be worse than Trump.

Yeah, right.

Recently, Democrats have made serious proposals to pack the courts, abolish the electoral college and abolish the Senate (or reapportion it based on population). They assert the 2nd Amendment does not secure an individual right to bear arms and that the 1st Amendment does not protect “hate speech”. They believe that illegal aliens should vote, that no ID be required to vote and that unknown and unaccountable activists be allowed to “ballot harvest” on election day. The sum total of these proposals is an insistence that in no way, shape or form should anyone non-left be able to secure power in the United States and that once the left obtains power there should be no restrictions on the use of that power.

All of this stems from the leftist belief that they are absolutely right and those who oppose them are not merely wrong, but immoral in their views. I, as a Conservative, don’t want people to be judged by the content of their character because I believe it is right to do so: I want that because I’m an evil person who wishes to perpetuate injustice to benefit myself. The left, if given enough power for a long enough time, will implement, in one form or another, every one of these proposals (and more, besides) because they believe that the very survival of the human race and the planet depends upon it – and they will brook no opposition from anyone.

Do you want that? Do you want yourself to eventually be declared mentally incompetent because you will not assert that a woman can have a penis? And then have your right to bear arms and fly on airplanes denied because, as a crazy female-penis-denier, you’ve been placed on a government list prohibiting such people from doing those things? Do you want your religion forced to teach things that deny the things your religion asserts are true? Do you want your wealth confiscated in the name of fighting climate change and you forced to move into a densely populated city where you’ll have no car, no proper sanitation and whether or not you can be employed will be determined by a social credit system run by leftists? Do you want your government chosen in a flurry of urban ballot-box stuffing? Do you think I’m kidding when I say this is where the left wants to take us? And do you think for a moment they won’t go there if they have the means to do so?

We can all wish for a different set of circumstances. I could wish I was six feet tall, good looking and rich. But, the fact of the matter is that I’m five feet, seven inches, kinda dumpy looking and I think I could scrounge money for a meal at Jack in the Box if you’re hungry. Because of these circumstances, in my life I’ve had to get ahead on sheer hard work and an ability to be charming. You work with what you’ve got, in other words. And in politics, right now, what we’ve got is President Trump and the GOP – and, God help us all, that is what stands between us and a leftist disaster.

As an aside, do not doubt the left’s sincerity. They really believe they are right. They aren’t doing this for fun. I’ve been watching them a lot of late and they are seriously convinced of stuff you and I find absurd. And there is no way to talk them out of it: they are armored from ear to ear and simply won’t listen to contrary ideas or facts (the rare liberal who does wake up tends to prove the rule). They are going to do what they want because they think that they are helping – that by forcing you to say things you believe are untrue; by forcing you to surrender your property; by forcing you to live like an urban hipster, they are making you a better person and building a better world. And if you really get out of line, their punishment of you is also just for your own good…to prevent you from poisoning the minds of other people. Take them seriously and take them at their word.

So, what can we do? Well, as I noted above, I’d like different circumstances – I’d like the perfect GOP President and Congress and party organization which would do everything exactly right at all times. But, we aren’t going to get that. We’re going to have to go with what we have: Trump and the current GOP. Somehow or another, we have to award them absolute political victory in 2020 and beyond (I’d say we dare not let Democrats obtain Executive power for at least 20 years; hopefully that long out of power will force the Democrats to change). It is either vote for Trump and the GOP, or allow Democrats who are committed to enforcing a series of lies and imposing a series of oppressions to sustain the lies. It really is a time for choosing: which do you want? A flawed GOP plus Trump who’s heart is clearly in the right place, or Democrats who are pledged beforehand to destroy everything which you hold dear?

To me, there isn’t any question: if I want to live in a society where truth may be spoken; where property can be owned; where people can live as they wish; where laws are enforced, then I’ve got no choice but to back Trump and the GOP. And keep backing them until such time as we’ve either entirely rebuilt the barriers against tyranny in this country, or Democrats change back into a party where truth is allowed. It is a moral requirement, in my view, that I vote for Trump and the GOP in 2020. To do otherwise is to betray not just my moral code, but the very concept of morality. It may seem weird that a billionaire playboy works out to be the Tribune of truth and decency, but that is actually the way the world works: often it is the most unlikely person imaginable who turns out to have been granted the talisman of truth. Don’t ask me why it wound up being Trump (and Mitch McConnell) – I don’t know. Don’t really care, either. They are what they are – and they’ve all I’ve got; so, I’m going to do the right thing in 2020.