Open Thread

Open Thread

Mark Noonan43 Comments

On the whole, rather be a Republican at the moment than a Democrat.

If we do get to 54 GOP Senators, then its better than 50/50 we wind up with 60 or more after 2024. So, fun!

Later today Pudding Brain is going to give an emergency speech telling us that Democracy is at risk. Whatever. What is really notable is that yesterday’s speech finally got some MSM notice on how he’s, well, senile. Grandpa said, once again, that his son died in Iraq…but also went on to say that he went to an historic black college and that he met the man who “invented” insulin…except insulin was discovered rather than invented and the guy who discovered it died before Joe was born. I think that now the Red Wave comes into view, the Democrat power people are setting up Joe’s exit. Won’t happen before January 21st because Harris won’t sign off on it before then (she will – sensibly – want to retain her two-term viability). And what a crushing mistake the Democrats made – pushing Joe to run because they thought he had blue collar appeal, then frauding him into office when that didn’t work…and now it looks like they’ll get crushed next week, and likely get it even worse in 2024 because, guys, the economy gets worse from here (and just watch the MSM suddenly call it the worst recession ever as they try to pin it on the new GOP Congress). If they had just let Trump enjoy the victory he had earned, none of this would be happening.

Whom the gods would destroy…

Open Thread

Mark Noonan46 Comments

There are two realities about the status of Campaign 2022 at the moment:

  1. Nobody knows what will happen.
  2. What will happen is already happening.

I’ve seen lots of election Experts changing their race ratings over the past few days – from “leans this” to “tilt that” and so on. It is all drivel. Only marginal changes in voting intention take place in the last couple weeks. When we talk about “late deciders broke thus and such” what we really mean is “these people were 99% going to go the way they did, we just didn’t know it until it was over”. It is hard to get granular with polling – they try to make it seem like they can, but in a sample of 1,001 people the sample you get which represents the “late deciders” is tiny and, therefore, useless except by accident. You might get some marginal changes in the vote – and in a very tight race, that may make the difference. But for most races which will be decided by 1 or more percentage points, its already over: the votes are being cast and the winners and losers are almost all baked in by this point.

But there are some indications of how it is going. Early voting can be useful but it is also flawed: it can never tell you how many people will vote on election day, nor the partisan makeup of that bloc of voters. Rule of thumb (which has so far been correct) is that Democrats vote early, Republicans vote late. That trend will continue until it doesn’t. Will 2022 be the year it breaks down? We won’t know until the votes are counted. But, so far, early voting has not given Democrats much to cheer about – if Democrats are voting early (and are voting Democrat: just because a Democrat returned a ballot does not mean it is 100% for certain a Democrat vote), they aren’t voting in the numbers you would expect if this was to be a purple year, which the Experts have been telling us it will be (based on anger over Roe and Democrats distancing themselves from the toxic Joe Biden). But there are other places you can look.

For instance, you can look at the House race for NY-25. It is a D+8 district which Pudding Brain won 60-37 in 2020. So, pretty solid Democrat, right? GOP doesn’t stand a snowball’s chance, right?

Except the Democrats House Majority Pac just earmarked $275,000 in ad buys for the district.

D+8

Joe won it by 23 points.

The incumbent Democrat got 59% of the vote in 2020.

Whatever else is said, when cash is put on the line, there’s a reason for it – and the only reason they’d lay down this cash is because they’re desperately afraid that a Democrat +8 district is slipping away.

What does it mean? That Democrats are in trouble. A lot of trouble.

We’re supposed to be sympathetic to Paul Pelosi – 80 year old guy. Whacked with a hammer.

Yeah, no. He’s fabulously wealthy due to his political connections and while he did fall victim to a crime (so we think), the fact of the matter is that the policies he backed while raking in his millions have caused untold numbers of assaults, rapes and murders among the poor of America’s cities…and, so, my sympathy is a bit limited.

It was revealed that the suppression of dissent on line in 2020 was fully coordinated between federal law enforcement and the tech giants – also revealed is that the government is going to heavily focus on preventing we, the people, from seeing “toxic narratives”. Rely on it, they are also working with the major news outlets. I honestly lend more credence to stories at World Socialist Web these days than I do from CNN or the New York Times – they’re commies, but at least not owned (so far).

Open Thread

Mark Noonan46 Comments

For the second time in recent months, Paul Pelosi is in trouble because he got hammered.

It is a very strange story – supposedly, this weirdo in his underwear managed to gain access to the Pelosi’s manse in a heavily guarded area of San Francisco…nobody saw the guy in his underwear coming in! Then both underwear-guy and Paul got hammers…and then it gets a little foggy. Police reports indicate that Paul called about the man but said he was waiting for Nancy to get home and then the police show up and only then does underwear-guy attack…supposedly severely injuring Paul.

The Capitol Police have been called in…which makes no sense as they lack any jurisdiction…but if you want to control the investigation, having a police force tied to your office is really cool.

Gay lover spat? Mere political set up so they can blame the GOP? Who the heck knows.

Elon Musk owns Twitter – so far, nothing much has changed except for one thing: for the first time since I created my account in 2015 the things Twitter suggest to me are relevant. And I mean it: not once in the past 7+ years has a Twitter suggestion been anything remotely interesting to me. And not just the fact that for politics they’re always pushing liberals my way…for sports I get soccer, which is just so similar to hockey, I guess. For food I get Vegan stuff…which might go well with my pot roast. I get super-hero movies suggested when I’m more of a bio-pic/war drama kind of guy. On and on like that – and all wasted effort as I’ve never clicked a suggested link. Until today: when miracle of miracles, a video from Kari Lake was suggested to me. If this is all Elon does, then it is worth it.

Now, as for the permanently banned: Musk is saying that is under review. Already Corporate America is warning they’ll pull advertising if Trump’s account is restored. I doubt that Musk would really care. The only account everyone is saying must be restored is Gay Patriot’s. He went through about a score of them before he gave up. We want his original account back – Twitter just isn’t the same without his acid takes on the issues of the day.

The liberal melt-down about it has been wonderful, as you might expect. And with the fear of banning fading, people are back to their old tricks…one of the MSMers reporting from Twitter headquarters got trolled by two people claiming to be fired Twitter employees. Their names? Ligma and Johnson (I’ll give you a minute).

What has been most funny is the liberal insistence that Musk breaking the shackles of Twitter censorship is fascism. I’m deadly serious here: that is exactly what they’re calling it. Lots of them are saying they are leaving but I doubt that will happen, or last long for those who do. For people who like fast-paced, topical social media, Twitter is king. It really is a clever system when you get down to it. Truth Social and others do ok at it, but even as they improve their product, they simply can’t get around Twitter’s head start in users. Musk says it will become part of a comprehensive social media platform – which may or may not wind up being a good thing, but as he’s taking it private, only he gets to say what will be what.

The Democrats latest hopium is early voting numbers out of Clark County, Nevada. The nutshell: Democrats are doing well with mail-in votes and this presages a Democrat resurgence in front of November 8th. Two flaws in the theory: Clark County turnout is down massively…the other bit is that rural Nevada hasn’t reported a single early vote. So, the Democrat stronghold is depressed and we don’t even know what the most GOP part of the State looks like.

The Oz-Fetterman debate seems to have finished off Fetterman. In every poll taken since the debate, Oz has been in the lead. The official word is that ticket splitters will award Oz the Senate seat and the Democrat the governorship. The Official Narrative being that the GOP candidate there is just too extreme. I guess we’ll find out. But Oz was “too extreme” until a couple days ago. Meanwhile, Democrats are now pouring resources into New Hampshire…which has been officially in the bag for the Democrats since June or so. I think NH and WA will be the GOP upsets. But, we’ll see!

Oh, and Democrats: the GOP looks certain to win at least 52 Senate seats. Could go as high as 55 if they get the breaks. But, as they say, there’s more! In the 2024 cycle Democrats will be defending seats in (are you ready?) Montana, Nevada, Arizona, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and West Virginia. Yes, as a matter of fact, I am pointing and laughing at you. That is 10 – count ’em, ten – vulnerable Senate seats. But, don’t feel too bad…after all the GOP will be backs-to-the-wall defending seats in Alabama and Wyoming.

To make it clear to you: you’re screwed. If you’re lucky then by 2025 you’ll be looking at a Senate which only has 60 GOP Senators. It could be as high as 65.

And here’s what will really grind your gears: if you hadn’t cheated to win in 2020, then this year you’d probably be getting a net-gain of 4 and in 2024 your loses probably would have been in the 3-5 range.

Was Trump really that bad?

Open Thread

Mark Noonan39 Comments

There is a meme out there – and you may have seen it – which basically says, “how can a generation raised on Family Guy get so easily offended?”. The underlying assumption is that Family Guy is avant-garde. Speaking Truth to Power. Taking on the Ruling Class. So, why can’t these people take a joke?

The answer is simple: shows like Family Guy (and The Simpsons and even South Park) are not avant-garde. They don’t speak Truth to Power. They are yet more Ruling Class propaganda. They wouldn’t be allowed on the air if they weren’t. You think the bosses would really pay someone to make fun of them? Ain’t gonna happen – at least, not very often and when it does it is usually by mistake. You know: something like Fritz the Cat. That really did poke fun at 60’s radicalism..and it was granted an X rating for that (don’t try to sell me that sex scenes between cartoon characters caused the X rating).

I admit to never having seen a full episode of Family Guy though from time to time I do see clips of it posted here and there on line. Some of them are really funny but most are pretty conventional modern comedy (ie, vulgarity). But one clip I saw recently illustrates my point about the show being Ruling Class propaganda. In the clip, two of the characters have some sort of device which allows them to transit between parallel universes and one of the universes was predicated upon Christianity never existing – and so everyone is going around in their flying cars and other advanced tech…because you see, without Christianity to impose the Dark Ages, we’d be far more advanced. Yuk, yuk, yuk! There are two things to draw out of this – first off, the religion they insult is Christianity and that is, of course, the only religion the Ruling Class allows to be insulted. Secondly, the Ruling Class lie that religion is opposed to science. How would any person watching such a show develop the healthy skepticism necessary to step outside the approved Narrative? No chance of it – regular consumers of such fare will, of course, be able to parrot “Christians hate science” at the drop of a hat…but there is no possibility that such a person, confronted with, say, “men can get pregnant” would be able to refuse the lie.

A couple years back I got into a little Twitter tiff with John Cleese of Monty Python fame – my point to him was that for all the hilarity of the humor, it only made fun of the defenseless – and often, the dead. You can, after all, poke whatever fun you want at Victorians because they’re all dead and can’t punch you in the nose over it. Never once did Monty Python, or any pop culture fare over the past half century or more, poke fun at whatever was fashionable among the elite (some people bring up the skit in Life of Brian where Cleese’s character makes fun of the desire of a man to be a woman – but that was long before Trans became fashionable. Just see if anyone tries something like that on SNL or some other show in 2022).

What we’ve got is a mountain of propaganda to pierce. And it is everywhere – and very clever of the Ruling Class to simply buy the jesters and make them into mouthpieces.

So, they dredged up another accusation against Walker – anonymous denunciation about an alleged abortion 30 years ago. They really have shot their bolt, haven’t they?

And it does look like a Red Tsunami is developing. The cope among Liberal Election analysts is reaching epic proportions as they try to sift out any data point which would indicate Democrats are doing well. But, sorry: it don’t fly. The Democrats are spending money to defend their Washington Senate seat. Murray got nearly 59% of the vote back in 2016 and here in 2022 Democrats are pouring money into it. They have to. It seems that even for Washington and Oregon, there’s a limit to how much Antifa people can take. The head of the DCCC is also getting money from his own organization as his GOP challenger threatens an upset. Democrats are triaging districts all around the country…in one case moving money from a D+9 district to a D+13 district. Think about that – a D+9 district has been written off two weeks before election day and they’re trying to salvage D+13!

This is all indicative of what I’ve been expecting all year – a fairly uniform swing of 10 points to the GOP. It might be more, but I think that is reasonable. And I don’t think anything has really changed since about March…polling has just been noise and propaganda designed to get money or get money moved around.

But, Mark, what if you’re wrong?

Hey, of course I could be – if I am, then I am. But I think I’m on the right track here.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan44 Comments

Here is Kari Lake hammering the MSM on “election denier” accusations. It is how it is done – and we need ever more of this. She takes their stupid lies and just shoves them right back in their faces.

It is crucial that we understand the MSM is nothing but propaganda for the DNC. It is all Pravda, all the time. Everything they say which in any way relates to politics is a lie. It is either a complete fabrication or so twisted in presentation that the kernel of truth in there is entirely obscured and you can’t from their report connect it to the actual situation. They don’t make mistakes – everything they say is off a script provided by the DNC. Some day the full truth will come out and it will be shown that those who set the tone for the MSM – the movers and shakers of it who decide what is a story and how it will be covered – received direct orders on it from DNC operatives. Rely on it: I am absolutely right about this.

But how can you be sure?

Because they are always on the same page – at most a word or two is changed. They all say the exact same thing – and such uniformity is only possible on command, it cannot develop spontaneously.

I’m confident of an Oz victory in Pennsylvania mostly on the fact that there’s been no recent polling on it – which means the pollsters, even with D-heavy samples, are finding an Oz surge and they don’t want that to get out this late in the game as it would crush Democrat fundraising down the stretch.

As I’ve said for years, none of us can know the future – it is all up for grabs and in an infinite universe, literally anything is possible. But the fundamentals of 2022 started with the fact that Pudding Brain is in the White House. Depending on who you ask and how it is calculated, the President’s party loses an average of about 30 seats in the first mid-term when the incumbent is having popularity problems – and they usually are because even people who were popular when elected suffer a bit of buyer’s remorse. This is just the natural ebb and flow of politics, guys. W bucked the trend in 2002 because that was a year after 9/11 and we were all happy and united at the time – Bush’s popularity was still sky high. Given that the GOP only needs 6 seats to win a majority, the House was gone pretty much the minute they installed Uncle Grandpa into the Oval Office.

There was an outside chance for the Democrats in the Senate. With a 50/50 tie going in and a friendly map for the Democrats, if Biden maintained about a 46% average popularity and if nothing bad happened, the Democrats might have come out even or maybe even got a net gain of 1. But Biden sits around 42% (and it is likely 38% when you account for, once again, D-heavy samples) and we’ve got inflation and shortages and crime and border problems and a general feeling that everything sucks. A good Democrat candidate who runs a great campaign can probably run 4 points or so ahead of Biden’s approval…so, if this was a good year, Biden at 46 means some Democrats can make it. Biden at 42…they’re doomed. Biden at 38 – extra doomed.

Given the fundamentals, we can expect a pretty good November 8th for the GOP – the only question is, how good? We talking a solid night of, say, 30 House and 3 Senate seats, or a wipe out with a net GOP gain of 50 in the House and 5 in the Senate? That is the only question – I think there’s a larger chance of the wipe out: Democrats are already engaging in triage and abandoning various races…while GOP groups are looking for long-shots (I saw an ad against Dina Titus here in Las Vegas – she sits on a D+12 House district: that’s a stretch, but that someone is willing to spend some GOP money on it means it is in the realm of the possible).

The next thing to consider is, what next? With a GOP Congress being likely come January, what do we do with it? It is pretty clear that at the moment, McConnell doesn’t want to have a MAGA fight against the Democrats. McCarthy, over in the House, is making some noises like he’s willing to have that battle. But that is the crucial thing – we aren’t electing a GOP Congress to work across the aisle…we’re electing a GOP Congress to engage in unrelenting war on the Democrat party. We’ve learned that all bi-partisanship gets us is slightly slower surrender. We do want Hunter indicted, Biden impeached, the government shut down until the 87,000 IRS agents are gone and the border is secured. We know that the GOP leadership largely lacks the stomach for such a fight…but the incoming Congress will be more MAGA than any past Congress: we might successfully hold some feet to the fire.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan47 Comments

If you listen to polls, both the OK and NY governor races are tied.

This is why you shouldn’t listen to polls. The chances that the GOP is in trouble in Oklahoma are <0.1%. The risk that the Democrat is in trouble in NY is <10%. That is a huge spread, BTW – but, still, pretty solid for the Democrat. What isn’t at all possible is a GOP governor losing in a deep Red State in a GOP year.

OTOH, there is that non-zero chance that the GOP gets a miracle in New York. It would take an epic GOP Red Wave to make it happen…but there is a chance (small) that this happens. It all comes down, as usual, to who shows up? If the economy is the main issue, then the Democrats are getting shellacked. The reason the Democrats are leaning heavy into abortion (every second Democrat ad here in Nevada is “THE GOP WILL END ABORTION!!!) is because they must make the race about something else. Anything else. They tried to make 1/6 the issue (there were even ads on it here in Nevada) but that flopped…so, we’re all abortion, all the time right now. Will it work? I don’t think it will – I view it as a desperate throw of the dice by a party which dares not talk about itself.

If, however, in addition to the economy being the motivator we also see a drop in traditional Democrat turnout (especially among African-American voters) then the shellacking could turn into a beat down of epic proportions…that’s where NY governor, WA Senator and other races call to the GOP.

We’ll find out 11/8.

Been working on Book VI , Heirs, honestly meant to have it out by now but my production has been astonishing in later books (it will now be at least an 11 book series) and as the story has developed the characters (old and new) have gone off in some very interesting directions and this has necessitated a bit of a rework of Book VI, mostly in the foreshadowing of things that come later. I’ll have it out in a month or so. Book VII, Empress, will come real quick after that as I have hardly any modifications to make on it. Book VIII The Crimson Blade I want to have out in Summer of 2023. All that leads up to Book IX, Home World, which is 80% done and then on to Book X, Ghost Tower about 60% done and then we wrap it up (we hope) with Book XI, Antaki (only just started). Meanwhile, I’ve got the outline of my next series…not sure what it will be titled but it is an awesome cool story of deception confronted with courage.

Ever more parents are pushing back against transgender propaganda in schools. Most famously this past week were mostly Muslim parents in Michigan who went ballistic over the propaganda. Hate to break it to the Muslims, but there time as a favored “oppressed group” now likely draws to a close. Trans now trumps all in the Intersectionality Bingo Card. Some people did get a little upset because it was Muslims and there is always that concern they’ll impose Sharia. But, given a choice between Sharia and teaching kids that men can get pregnant, I’m going to have to go with Sharia. The true solution, of course, is to take control of the school boards – you know for a fact that no member of that board roasted by the Muslims so much as asked the locals what they want. Liberal Democrats they likely were elected because Muslims, like most immigrant communities, tend to vote Democrat – and most of the time, nobody really cares what the school board is up to. Until recently, that is – we now know how crucial it is. In fact, along with Sheriffs, it might be one of the two most crucial things to control.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan17 Comments

So, we had a hideous inflation report…and then the 1/6 nimrods subpoenaed Trump. This allowed the MSM to universally drop the Bad For Democrat Narrative and pick up the…well, what they think is the Bad For Trump Narrative. They are so utterly predictable.

Naturally, the Resist (!) Left went into onanistic overdrive on the news – fantasizing about Trump refusing it and the DOJ frog-marching him out of Mar a Lago…because none of them know how things work. Trump will, of course, throw up legal objections (all legitimate as the committee has no real authority to do what they think they’re doing) and then the election will happen and on January 3rd a Republican majority will dispense with it. And it is highly doubtful that even as nasty a partisan as Garland will try to set a precedent which would allow Trump or DeSantis to arrest Biden on January 21st, 2025.

The 1/6 Committee isn’t really about the mid-terms any longer. They had hoped that their friendly MSM Narrative would make people so hate Trump that it would help them at the polls…but the reality is the story that was buried today: inflation. It is rising very fast and while various entities are still trying to hide the effects, they can only do that for a little while. Once November 8th is past they’ll give it up and let inflation run its course – with the hope (for them) that it will abate and the resultant intensified recession will end long enough in front of 2024 to give the Democrats a shot.

It was revealed by the Saudis that Pudding Brain attempted to pressure them into keeping production high in front of the mid-terms. Think about that – with many decades of proven reserves in the ground (and 200 years worth altogether) Team Biden still won’t even consider increasing American production and instead opted to try a sordid deal with the Saudis. And merely to save their political bacon. These people really do hate the United States and her people – they just want power and the wealth it brings to them.

Fetterman is clearly suffering some bad effects from his stroke a little while back and the Dem/MSM Narrative on it switched from “there’s nothing wrong” to “you’re an abelist bigot if you mention it”. I feel a little sad for the man – I’m pretty sure it is just his people (and his consultants making bank no matter how the election goes) keeping him at it. My father had a stroke and I know how difficult it is for a person to bounce back from them, if they ever fully can. Dad never quite got back and had a speech impediment for the rest of his life – looks like Fetterman will, too. This doesn’t mean that Fetterman can’t have a long and productive life, but the bottom line is that the recovery time from a stroke is not the time to be running for Senate. It is cruel to keep him at it. It may end up killing him – and the Democrats don’t care: they figure that Shapiro has a 70/30 shot at getting re-elected and will be able to name Fetterman’s replacement (personally, I think its about a 52/48 shot – I still hold that polls are massively underestimating the coming GOP turnout while at the same time massively overestimating the likely Democrat turnout).

Meanwhile, Democrats have rung the alarm bell in…Oregon. I guess there’s just so much Antifa a place can take and then they’ll even (((shudder))) give the GOP a shot: we’re looking pretty good for the governorship and even have an outside shot at a legislative majority. Meanwhile, over in Washington Patty Murray appears to be in some trouble – I’ll still rate that “lean Democrat” because they have so much power (and ability to cheat) in Seattle…but, clearly, Democrats are in some trouble. What we saw in 2021 was a pretty nearly uniform swing in VA and NJ of ten points from the Democrats to the GOP…if that holds true in 2022, a huge GOP year is coming…but there’s is a chance that the swing will be even larger. Meanwhile, Ron Jonson looks like a lock in the WI Senate rate while Kemp appears similarly situated in the Georgia governorship (don’t even talk about FL – Governor and Senate races will be called at poll closing in the Panhandle). What I can’t see is a huge divergence between PA and WI…they tend to flow together being States with a lot of demographic similarities. We’re about to clean up in WI but fail in PA? Could happen – but PA is trending Red much more rapidly than WI (voter registration changes in favor of the GOP mark out PA as the next FL). We’ll see what happens – but I’m expecting some pretty big wins in PA. Michigan? Officially, everyone says that Whitmer has it in a lock…and it would take a pretty big GOP wave to get the GOP over the top there. But we might have that.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan27 Comments

A couple days ago Elon Musk suggested a possible path to peace in Ukraine – the nutshell of it was free and fair elections in the ethnic-Russian areas and everyone abides by the result. It is to be doubted that Putin would ever agree to it even though such a vote would probably result in a win for Russia…but likely not an overwhelming win and he’s certainly not about to allow free and fair elections in the Donbas when he won’t allow them in Moscow.

But what amazed was the fury which greeted Musk’s suggestion – even Ukrainian government officials piled on. The same officials who were grateful a couple months ago to Musk for providing Starlink for free after the Russians have pretty much zapped the entire Ukrainian communications network. Musk was roundly condemned as a Russian agent and the very thought of peace was scorned.

People around me long enough know that my basic belief about war is that if you get into one, you apply the maximum power you can muster against the enemy until he quits. This, of course, is a very American perspective because we are so powerful – generally, a full application of American power means the other side loses (this is why we’ve been forbidden to apply our full power since 1945). Even in our current state of decline, we’re still vastly more powerful than anyone else out there. But what if you aren’t the strongest power?

It still holds in my view: you apply the maximum amount of power you can muster. But with a thought towards obtaining peace as soon as possible because if you are the weaker side, then a long war only has one ending for you: defeat.

As I noted early on, the path to a clear-cut Ukrainian victory was for them to be able to mount a serious offensive into Russia right at the start. Think Six Day War: you drive deep and fast to entirely disrupt the enemy plans and, hopefully, get him to panic and willing to talk peace at just about any price. Absent that, the second best option was to trade space for time – and sell territory at a usurious blood price: hopefully that would get the Russians to quit. As it turns out, Ukraine did neither – it was, in fact, Ukrainians who were ground up defending every inch of ground in positions good, bad and indifferent as the Russians systemically used artillery to bludgeon their way forward. Now the Ukrainians, re-equipped by NATO, are taking the offensive again and they are gaining ground…but mostly it looks like ground the Russians are giving up, unwilling to spend blood to hold it…and, once again, Russian artillery is exacting a high blood price for each Ukrainian advance.

So, in my view (and, apparently, Musk’s) it is time to talk peace. It is unlikely that Ukraine, unaided on the ground, will be able to expel the Russians from all Ukrainian territory. If they are finally able to do so, the price will be high and the further they advance, the more heavily Russian the local population is. And, of course, the Russians get a say: if Putin fully mobilizes Russia for war, he’ll have overwhelming weight on his side and he will prevail…perhaps conquering the whole country. So: smoke a peace pipe.

But, we can’t have that, it would seem. I guess our Ruling Class can’t think of anything else to do. And they are making money off it.

In other Musk news, he’s once again saying he’ll buy Twitter. As soon as word of this came out, everyone’s follower count dropped – some by many thousands. I only lost 12 because I don’t let bots follow me. So, it seemed pretty clear that Twitter was getting rid of bots before Elon takes over and shows that their algorithm is entirely self-dealing and their traffic and trends are manufactured.

Herschel Walker – I’m sure you’ve talked about it. As for me: I refuse to condemn based on an uncorroborated story. Walker denies it. Unless and until stand-up-in-court proof is presented, I will discount the accusation. A lot of us on the right are taking this basic position and the left is getting mighty irritated with us – but what is making them scorching mad is when we say that even if they prove it, we won’t withdraw support for Walker.

The funny part about this is that I’m sure their strategy went like this: “Hey, they’re a bunch of white, racist Christians who hate anyone who sins. They’re only backing Walker because they think he’ll do as he’s told. So, we tell them that Walker paid for an abortion and their Christian bigotry, supported by their racism, will do Walker in!”. Don’t doubt me on this: they really think we’re like that. As if we Christians don’t believe that the blood of Christ covers all sins. And in addition to that, it won’t make us help elect a man committed to the Democrat’s position: federally funded abortion on demand to the moment of birth.

What pleased me most when the story broke is how few bedwetters on the Right emerged – discounting all Never Trump (which has morphed into Never Republican), of genuine conservatives only a few lent the story any credence, and most of them said it made no difference given Walker’s opponent. We’re learning! We’re no longer falling for the Left’s drivel. This is good and bodes well for the future.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan33 Comments

Who blew up the Nordstream pipelines? Who in heck knows – if it was blown up, it could be an act of war. But by whom and against whom? Very murky situation – but also very bad as it will increase pressure on global energy supplies as we enter winter.

The main thing here is that we wouldn’t have to care if Pudding Brain wasn’t strangling American energy production.

A couple respectable pollsters (there are a few) are starting to get it together and showing us winning pretty handily in Georgia, Arizona and Nevada – and with good signs in Pennsylvania. The more “stretch” races are in places like Washington and New Mexico. The bottom line is that 25 House and 2 Senate seats are within very easy reach of the GOP and that puts an end to Pudding Brain’s legislative efforts…and if McConnell allows even five federal judgeships to be filled over the next two years, I’ll be surprised.

But some people are starting to see that very much underneath the radar, GOP turnout might come as a huge shock to everyone. Remember, the leadership of the United States is calling us Nazi terrorist threats to Democracy…polling has shown (or, I guess, failed to show: but you know what I mean) the “shy GOP voter” over the past few cycles. This partially explains the massive misses recently – like when the aggregate in Ohio the day before the 2020 election showed it either tied or Trump barely ahead before he went on to win the State by more than 8 points. But the increased hateful rhetoric against GOP voters is possibly making ever more “shy GOP voters”: people who won’t even pick up the phone when the pollster calls…but who are yet determined to vote GOP in November. We’ll see if that happens…but if it does, then November 8th could be a bloodbath. And one sign that it might be happening is that Democrats are spending money in the Washington Senate race…which should be a walkover even in a strong GOP year.

That video I linked to PM Meloni? YouTube has deleted it. Because they are terrified of her…and so a bit of fascism is necessary here, to “protect” people, you see? All just to Save Democracy.

As Hurricane Ian bears down on Florida, the Democrats and the MSM (BIRM) are praying for a catastrophe they can blame on DeSantis. These are very sick and twisted people.

Our Progressive friends would like us dead. For our own good, of course. And to prevent us from Democracy-ing the wrong way.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan20 Comments

The MSM is increasing the “Democrats are surging to victory” Narrative. Still, though, with the whispered “but not really” articles here and there. They know the Democrats are getting wiped out. Among other reasons, here’s why:

The Dow is down 18.5% so far in 2022. I haven’t even checked my 401K because I don’t need that negative energy in my life (plus I’m wedded to “dollar cost averaging” in my investment strategy).

Oh, and gas prices have started to rise in some areas. And I paid more than $8 for a 12 pack of Coke. And they were nearly out of avocados. And totally out of the Diet Pepsi the Mrs prefers.

Basically, things are bad and getting worse – and the only thing the Democrats have is abortion and they are running hard on it. Now, could there be a solid majority for abortion in America? People so committed to it that they’ll turn the election for the Democrats? I doubt it. We’ll find out November 8th.

Some people have pointed out that it would be strange for Democrats/MSM to lie about how things are going – in other words, if they spend the next 6 weeks lying about how it will be, they’ll look terribly bad when the results are 180 from their assertions. This is a lack of understanding about how lies work – first and foremost, they work. They always work. No lie has even been spoken that didn’t work.

What do I mean? Surely there have been failed lies.

Well, sure. In fact, all lies fail. They can’t do other than fail. But for the liar, that isn’t the point. No liar is good at long-term thinking. Liars lie because they want to wring whatever advantage they can out of the moment. The cheating husband isn’t thinking about how his lies to his wife will work a year from now – he just wants to get away with his adultery right now. For the liar, all lies work because at least for a second, at the bare minimum, you are spending time refuting the lie – you are not advancing your own cause. You are on defense…while the liar already has his next lie lined up…and is advancing his cause while you’re refuting his last lie.

We can never know counter-factuals but it is my assertion that if the mere truth had been told in 2020, Trump would have won better than 60% of the vote and the GOP would have secured very large Congressional majorities. I’m not talking switching the MSM from anti- to pro-Trump: I’m saying that if the mere truth had been spoken, it would have been like that. That Biden was already in massive cognitive decline; that Hunter’s laptop and all the vileness on it was real; that the FBI has spent years lying about Trump/Russia; that Covid escaped from a Chinese lab and that lockdowns weren’t necessary; that VBM was obviously and only a method of voter fraud. On and on and on like that – the incumbent riding that wave of Truth would have crushed the hapless Democrats.

Lies work – even very stupid lies, such as Trump-Russia or the “very fine people” lie which Pudding Brain asserts was his reason for running. They have a corrosive effect – even the most wise are prey to them. Maybe there’s something to it? comes very much into play…but even with all those lies, Trump won more than 11 million more votes than in 2016: and so my assertion about how it would have gone if the truth had been told. So, the lies they’re using here in 2022 will also work…what should be a 50 seat House gain will probably be 30 or so. It’ll work – it’ll keep the Democrats in the game, and for the liars, that is all that matters.

Now, on to the really scary thing: the murder of Cayler Ellingson: this is a watershed moment in the life of our Republic. A kid was hunted down and murdered for his political beliefs. The last time this sort of thing happened the Freedom Riders were trying to end Jim Crow. But there’s a difference – back then, the Establishment was on the side of the hunted. Here in 2022, it is on the side of the hunters. Even the allegedly GOP AG is downplaying it – and the murderer was charged basically with leaving the scene of an accident and given bail…while J6 detainees are sitting in solitary for trespassing. Make no mistake about it – this is very bad. Joe Biden in his Hitlerian speech the other day gave permission for this…and if our Republican leaders don’t start punishing the Democrats for this sort of thing then people will start to defend themselves against perceived threats.