A Republican Class War

Mark Noonan57 Comments

As most of you know, I ceased being a supporter of Capitalism a few years back and switched over to being a Distributist.  The genesis of the shift was my growing realization that Big Corporation and Big Government were two sides of the same coin while the very rich – for all their being demonized in liberal rhetoric – are for the most part liberal Democrats.  I cannot perceive a way for us to finally win – win where we can amend the constitution and thus undo the liberalism which is destroying us – unless we take out the whole of the enemy arrayed against us.  Since I figured that the Capitalist system was actually in alliance with the socialist system, I easily found myself slipping in to Distributist beliefs – which, to boil it down, are that nothing “too big to fail” should be allowed to live.  That a man, working hard and living frugally, should be able to by himself support his wife and children.  That almost all political decisions which affect the day-to-day lives of citizens must be made at the lowest level possible.

In the 2012 election we got a bit of confirmation of my views – 8 of the 10 richest counties in America were carried by Obama.  The rich like Obama.  They voted for him.  They donated to his campaign.  Do you think they actually believe that Obama’s “tax the rich” rhetoric is directed at them?  It isn’t.  And they know it.  You see, as I’ve been saying for years, “tax the rich” is a mere propaganda phrase for the Democrats.  They portray themselves as being on the side of the poor and the middle class and their most effective argument in this portrayal is their repeatedly announced determination to “tax the rich”.  But here’s the thing – they never, ever tax the rich.  They tax the middle class and dress it up as a tax on the rich.  They say they want “millionaires and billionaires” to pay their fair share….but a “billionaire” in the tax code starts at $200,000.00 a year.

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Some Post-Election Thoughts

Leo Pusateri50 Comments

Let me first say that what I’m about to write probably in no way reflects the feelings of Matt, or Mark, or any other contributor to this blog.  Hell, I don’t know if it even accurately reflects how I’ll feel a week from now.  Call it a stream of consciousness as to what I’m feeling at the moment.

I understand the Democrats played a good ground game. I understand we were rope-a-doped. I understand that the Republicans could have done a better job of conveying why Conservatism affords the most people the most opportunity for prosperity.

My question is thus– how can you overcome an opponent who not only can raise as much as you do, but has the added advantage of literally hundreds of millions of dollars more in free advertising and cover, from a group of people ostensibly charged to serve as watchdogs for the people against the government? The media was clearly, demonstrably, more in the tank for the democrat side than I have seen in my entire lifetime. Fox News tried covering the other side. But they’re one network. Difficult when you’re competing against NBC, ABC, CBS, MSNBC, CNN New York Times, ad nauseum.

How do you overcome those kinds of odds? How do you get a fair shot at selling your message?

Something tells me if we ran Jesus Christ Himself as a candidate, he still would have gotten smeared in wall-to-wall negative ads.  His Sermon on the Mount would have been misquoted and taken out of context, The networks would still have dutifully covered for Obama, stating that Jesus is just a poseur Messiah. Obama would promise more largesse, will have claimed to have lowered the rising seas, and would still have won the election yesterday. Seems the kind of world we live in right now. It may take a relatively long time, perhaps a decade, perhaps a decade in a half, until we are so far in the economic gutter that the economic Pridelands will have been picked of every life-giving force by the proverbial hyenas.

Only when the world has gone full Galt and the last of other people’s fruits wrought of productive enterprise have been sucked up and dried, will people understand the damage. By that time, I fear it will be too late. The United States, along with Egypt, Rome, Mesopotamia, Greece, Spain, Great Britain, and other great civilizations, will have been relegated to the books as just another flash in History’s pan.

Call me a negative Nelly, but at least at this point in time, I find it difficult to read the tea leaves any other way. Not that I won’t keep up the good fight, but right now I feel as if I’m taking the last stand at the Alamo.

Game over?

A Campaign for 70 Million Votes

Mark Noonan71 Comments

As I’m sure most people have figured out by now, turnout in 2012 was massively off from 2008.  As it turns out, Obama got fewer votes in 2012 than Bush got in 2004.  My prediction of a Romney victory was predicated upon taking the 2008 turnout and re-figuring it for both a loss in Obama voters and a return of Bush voters.  The Obama voters were, indeed, lost – I got that right (though, for full disclosure, Obama lost fewer votes than I projected he would).  The problem for us Republicans is that the Bush voters McCain lost were also lost by Romney – and then some; it seems that Romney got about a million fewer voters than McCain.  Had the 5 million or so missing Bush voters showed up on November 6th, Romney would have won…and we probably would have won a Senate majority, in to the bargain.

The big question is just why did these five million voters not vote?  They voted for Bush.  They are clearly ok with a socially conservative man of financially rich background – they should have had no particular problem with voting for Romney.  But, they didn’t.  Why?  Several reasons:

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Post Election Open Thread

Mark Noonan163 Comments

A bit of a re-write, because initially this thread was ungraciously titled.  Listening to Romney speak tonight reminded me that we’re bigger than that.

Obama has won a narrow victory – with the exceptional rarity of a President winning a 2nd term with a lower vote total than he won his first term with.  We on our side clearly did not put together a good enough program to convince a solid majority that we were best for the nation – but neither did Obama.  He got it together and managed to get the win, but it is a hollow victory.

Our liberals are convinced that now all the Hope and Change of 2008 will finally come to pass – that some how or another the policies which have failed so miserably over the past four years will now bear fruit.  I don’t see how anyone can rationally believe that – I can understand having faith, but not having faith in policies which have never worked, not even once.  But, now they’ve got their chance.  Obama is inheriting Obama – if his brand of economic policies work then we’ll know for certain by election day, 2016.

A lot of conservatives will now start to pan Romney.  I won’t.  He ran an excellent campaign and I don’t see a real mis-step.  Sure, we can all look back with 20/20 hindsight and say he should have done this, that or the other thing…but as it was unfolding, I don’t see what was missed.  I thought we had this thing won.  I’m still flabbergasted that we didn’t.  But I won’t spend any time or effort re-hashing what happened.

The things we need to work on are many – to just name a few:

1.  Yes, we need to have an amnesty for illegals.  Don’t look all shocked: I’ve been advocating for it since 2007.  I know all the arguments against – but none of them work against the stark reality that there are 10 million of them here, many of which have been long domiciled in the United States.  Secure the border, amnesty the otherwise law-abiding illegals we have and then ensure that no more illegals can get in.  This is not a play for Latino votes – this is a rational way to get the entire issue off the table while at the same time adhering to our finest national ideals.  We must amend the Constitution to change the definition of citizen to read, “all persons born of an American citizen are citizens of the United States and the State wherein they reside”.

2.  We need to break our ties entirely with Big Business – to make it clear that Big Government and Big Business are two exceptionally nasty sides of the same disgusting coin; that they, together, are ruining our nation and they both must go if we are ever to really recover our prosperity and our freedom.  Big Government includes Big Government Union, by the way – we must continue the fight that Walker has started and carry it to total, nationwide victory.  Democrats live and die by Big Government and Big Business – destroy them and we destroy the Democrat party as it is currently constituted.

3.  We must start to work, on a State-by-State level, for a Freedom of Conscience Restoration Amendment to the Constitution – to ensure that no matter what cockamamie ideas our liberals come up with that our religious bodies – in the widest possible definition – are entirely immune from government dictates.

4.  We must attack and attack and then attack some more the growing immorality in our popular culture.  As part of the war against Big Business we must point out that the nauseating filth in our popular culture is brought to us by Big Business in order to make profits off the ruination of people’s lives.

There is plenty more – all of it needs to be worked on.  All of it can be done.

So, stout hearts an in to the future with confidence.

Election Day Open Thread

Matt Margolis77 Comments

We’ll add important updates in this post today. You can also follow me on Twitter, where a majority of my Election Day coverage will occur.

UPDATE:  Instapundit is getting e-mail updates from voting precincts around the nation; just “man on the street”, as it were.  The trend seems to be strongly that in heavily Democrat areas turnout is so-far light while in heavily Republican areas turnout is strong.  One thing to always keep in mind – as one old general once said when report of a military disaster was brought to him, “the situation is never as bad, or as good, as first reports indicate”.  Don’t put too much stock in anything you hear throughout the day – not anecdotal reports, not leaked exit polls, not MSMers saying that “trends” indicate an Obama victory.  Until the votes actually start to be counted, no one really knows.  The only job you have today is to vote.  Do that and let things fall where they may.

UPDATE II:  An interesting story about how the early voting went in Ohio.

UPDATE III:  From Russ over at Ace of Spades – this is Operation Visine:  Get the Red Out!

UPDATE IV:  GOP turnout way up in Ohio.

UPDATE V:  Huge turnout in Louisiana and Missouri.  Why is this important in these certain-to-go-Romney States?  Because it is a gauge of GOP engagement…very, very high.  Also, it might drag Akin across the finish line and help us gain a Senate majority.  Also helps Romney run up the popular vote score in case it does come down to 10 or less electoral votes separating the candidates and no one knows who wins tonight.

UPDATE VI:  Early exits show the economy is the number one issue and that people think the economy sucks.  Remember:  the exits are not the last word on anything.  Whatever they say, don’t let them get you elated or down…go vote if you haven’t already.  But it is bad news for Team O that Big Bird, lady parts and revenge are not high up on the list of voter concerns…

UPDATE VII:  Vigo County, Indiana, a bellweather county (has picked the Pres winner since 1956) has a big swing to Romney.

UPDATE VIII:  Right now Romney is winning the popular vote 50% to 48%…

Election Eve Projections

Matt Margolis27 Comments

Battleground Watch: Romney 331, Obama 207

Ali A. Akbar: Romney 285, Obama 253

Karl Rove: Romney 285, Obama 253

Joe Trippi: Obama 303, Romney 235

James Pethokoukis: Romney 301, Obama 237

Michael Barone: Romney 315, Obama 223

Baseball Crank: Romney 271, Obama 267

UPDATE: In anticipation of lots of Election Day coverage off the blog, I’ve added my Twitter feed and Ali Akbar’s to the sidebar.

UPDATE , by Mark Noonan:  Well, here we are – on the eve.  Yes, I’ve had the jitters – but one must keep things in perspective.  Prayer calms the soul.  Try it, if you’re feeling nervous.

Obama’s rally today was half empty – the sure sign that the bloom is completely off the rose and this is not 2008.  Only a 2008 type turnout (or a completely unexpected collapse in GOP voting) can really pull it off for Obama.  Obama’s team and their lapdog media are playing a gigantic mind game with us – touting their early vote and their ground game not so much in confidence that they have it in the bag but in hopes that it will depress us and lower our turnout.  The truth of the matter is that the Democrat early voting totals have collapsed from 2008 – Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Michigan genuinely are in play…and even if they do wind up falling to Obama it will be by tiny margins…and that drop in vote will translate all across the nation, ensuring that Obama loses every 2008 State he won by 10-12 percentage points or less – that, by itself, gets Romney to 266 electoral votes, which is the bottom I see for him tomorrow:  he won’t get less than that (yes, Obama will lose Ohio).  This means that all Romney need do is win one of NH, PA, MI, MN, IA, WI, CO and NV.   Romney is leading in CO, tied in PA, WI and IA and within the margin of error (with Obama under 50%) in the rest.

But, still, there is that chance that Obama wins.  So be it.  If the American people want four more years of Obama, then God bless us all and we’ll just have to endure it.  It will be real bad next year no matter who wins – but if Obama wins then it will not only be much worse but much more extended in time.  And we’ll get to look forward to utterly crushing the Democrats in the 2014 mid-terms (always deadly for the party in power in the 2nd term of a President – see 2006 for confirmation).  And then as 2016 we’ll get to choose between Ryan, Sandoval, Rubio, Santorum, Jindal, Haley, West, Perry…while Democrats get to choose between Hillary, Biden and Cuomo.  I’m telling you, nothing but fun for us in there (and this leaves aside the fact that Benghazi is already a cancer eating at the Obama Presidency…if he “wins” tomorrow then he loses).

I don’t think that will happen.  I trust my fellow Americans – I trust the fact that Democrats I know are nervous and “confident” that Obama will win it narrowly while Republicans are thinking it may even come out as a landslide.  I am encouraged by Latina Americans I know personally who are voting for Romney…talk about Obama’s demographic collapsing in front of his eyes.  It could be a landslide – it could be a big win; we’ll have to see.

God bless you all (yes even you liberals out there) and good luck to all of us tomorrow.

 

Really? Sabato Says Obama Wins Handily

Matt Margolis42 Comments

Yup, the same guy who predicted John Kerry would win in 2004, and said that Bush needed a miracle to win reelection, is saying that Obama wins in handily.

His key arguments for the 11th hour shifts in the battleground states are as follows

  • Hurricane Sandy provided him with a boost.
  • The last jobs report, by not being horrible, was good for him.

Let’s consider these arguments.

I can’t buy the argument that the jobs report, which had the unemployment go up, thus pointing it higher today than it was when Obama took office, was a net positive for Obama. A mixed jobs report isn’t likely to change any minds either way, in my opinion, and hardly changes the fundamentals: There are fewer people employed today than when Obama took office, people are making less money, and more people are on food stamps.

Now, the bigger point: Hurricane Sandy. While one could make the case that Romney’s momentum was halted for a few days, I find it harder to suggest a shift in momentum in Obama’s favor. Even after the first days when Obama benefited from positive coverage, the aftermath of Sandy’s wrath has once again exposed the flaws in the federal government’s disaster response… after Obama said everything was going well.

So, both of these arguments don’t provide a strong case for an 11th hour shift in Obama’s favor. Michael Barone argues that if you look at the fundamentals, there is potential for a Romney landslide. I don’t think it will be a landslide, but I think Romney can win decisively. A recent poll , and it took a D+11 poll for CNN to achieve a tie between Obama and Mitt, and Mitt was winning independents by 22 points. The candidate the wins independents wins. Plain and simple.

Polls show a tied race in the battleground, Pennsylvania in play, and plenty of evidence to suggest that the results of tomorrow’s election will largely be decided on the ground game and voter ethusiasm. Fred Barnes makes the case for this better than I can. Romney is attacting huge crowds, bigger than Obama, and taking all factors into the equation, makes me very confident Mitt Romney will win tomorrow.

Updated Electoral Prediction

Matt Margolis53 Comments

My updated map makes some assumptions based on my confidence on select states, based on polling and anecdotal evidence.

FL, NC, VA are good for Romney.

As is OH and CO. Based on what the 2012 battleground state slate is, these states get him to 275 electoral votes and the win.

In gray are swing states that I’m not ready to call but are all, in my view, bonus states to win. If Mitt wins by only one state, you can bet your life that the results will be contested. So, he needs to win MI, or PA, or either MN or WI plus IA or NH to give Obama no opportunity to contest the results.

And while I still think PA is a long shot, as I just reported, Bill Clinton is making an 11th hour push there, and as Obama’s best surrogate, that suggests Obama’s internal polling shows a race within the MOE.

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