Campaign 2022

Open Thread

Mark Noonan47 Comments

If you listen to polls, both the OK and NY governor races are tied.

This is why you shouldn’t listen to polls. The chances that the GOP is in trouble in Oklahoma are <0.1%. The risk that the Democrat is in trouble in NY is <10%. That is a huge spread, BTW – but, still, pretty solid for the Democrat. What isn’t at all possible is a GOP governor losing in a deep Red State in a GOP year.

OTOH, there is that non-zero chance that the GOP gets a miracle in New York. It would take an epic GOP Red Wave to make it happen…but there is a chance (small) that this happens. It all comes down, as usual, to who shows up? If the economy is the main issue, then the Democrats are getting shellacked. The reason the Democrats are leaning heavy into abortion (every second Democrat ad here in Nevada is “THE GOP WILL END ABORTION!!!) is because they must make the race about something else. Anything else. They tried to make 1/6 the issue (there were even ads on it here in Nevada) but that flopped…so, we’re all abortion, all the time right now. Will it work? I don’t think it will – I view it as a desperate throw of the dice by a party which dares not talk about itself.

If, however, in addition to the economy being the motivator we also see a drop in traditional Democrat turnout (especially among African-American voters) then the shellacking could turn into a beat down of epic proportions…that’s where NY governor, WA Senator and other races call to the GOP.

We’ll find out 11/8.

Been working on Book VI , Heirs, honestly meant to have it out by now but my production has been astonishing in later books (it will now be at least an 11 book series) and as the story has developed the characters (old and new) have gone off in some very interesting directions and this has necessitated a bit of a rework of Book VI, mostly in the foreshadowing of things that come later. I’ll have it out in a month or so. Book VII, Empress, will come real quick after that as I have hardly any modifications to make on it. Book VIII The Crimson Blade I want to have out in Summer of 2023. All that leads up to Book IX, Home World, which is 80% done and then on to Book X, Ghost Tower about 60% done and then we wrap it up (we hope) with Book XI, Antaki (only just started). Meanwhile, I’ve got the outline of my next series…not sure what it will be titled but it is an awesome cool story of deception confronted with courage.

Ever more parents are pushing back against transgender propaganda in schools. Most famously this past week were mostly Muslim parents in Michigan who went ballistic over the propaganda. Hate to break it to the Muslims, but there time as a favored “oppressed group” now likely draws to a close. Trans now trumps all in the Intersectionality Bingo Card. Some people did get a little upset because it was Muslims and there is always that concern they’ll impose Sharia. But, given a choice between Sharia and teaching kids that men can get pregnant, I’m going to have to go with Sharia. The true solution, of course, is to take control of the school boards – you know for a fact that no member of that board roasted by the Muslims so much as asked the locals what they want. Liberal Democrats they likely were elected because Muslims, like most immigrant communities, tend to vote Democrat – and most of the time, nobody really cares what the school board is up to. Until recently, that is – we now know how crucial it is. In fact, along with Sheriffs, it might be one of the two most crucial things to control.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan17 Comments

So, we had a hideous inflation report…and then the 1/6 nimrods subpoenaed Trump. This allowed the MSM to universally drop the Bad For Democrat Narrative and pick up the…well, what they think is the Bad For Trump Narrative. They are so utterly predictable.

Naturally, the Resist (!) Left went into onanistic overdrive on the news – fantasizing about Trump refusing it and the DOJ frog-marching him out of Mar a Lago…because none of them know how things work. Trump will, of course, throw up legal objections (all legitimate as the committee has no real authority to do what they think they’re doing) and then the election will happen and on January 3rd a Republican majority will dispense with it. And it is highly doubtful that even as nasty a partisan as Garland will try to set a precedent which would allow Trump or DeSantis to arrest Biden on January 21st, 2025.

The 1/6 Committee isn’t really about the mid-terms any longer. They had hoped that their friendly MSM Narrative would make people so hate Trump that it would help them at the polls…but the reality is the story that was buried today: inflation. It is rising very fast and while various entities are still trying to hide the effects, they can only do that for a little while. Once November 8th is past they’ll give it up and let inflation run its course – with the hope (for them) that it will abate and the resultant intensified recession will end long enough in front of 2024 to give the Democrats a shot.

It was revealed by the Saudis that Pudding Brain attempted to pressure them into keeping production high in front of the mid-terms. Think about that – with many decades of proven reserves in the ground (and 200 years worth altogether) Team Biden still won’t even consider increasing American production and instead opted to try a sordid deal with the Saudis. And merely to save their political bacon. These people really do hate the United States and her people – they just want power and the wealth it brings to them.

Fetterman is clearly suffering some bad effects from his stroke a little while back and the Dem/MSM Narrative on it switched from “there’s nothing wrong” to “you’re an abelist bigot if you mention it”. I feel a little sad for the man – I’m pretty sure it is just his people (and his consultants making bank no matter how the election goes) keeping him at it. My father had a stroke and I know how difficult it is for a person to bounce back from them, if they ever fully can. Dad never quite got back and had a speech impediment for the rest of his life – looks like Fetterman will, too. This doesn’t mean that Fetterman can’t have a long and productive life, but the bottom line is that the recovery time from a stroke is not the time to be running for Senate. It is cruel to keep him at it. It may end up killing him – and the Democrats don’t care: they figure that Shapiro has a 70/30 shot at getting re-elected and will be able to name Fetterman’s replacement (personally, I think its about a 52/48 shot – I still hold that polls are massively underestimating the coming GOP turnout while at the same time massively overestimating the likely Democrat turnout).

Meanwhile, Democrats have rung the alarm bell in…Oregon. I guess there’s just so much Antifa a place can take and then they’ll even (((shudder))) give the GOP a shot: we’re looking pretty good for the governorship and even have an outside shot at a legislative majority. Meanwhile, over in Washington Patty Murray appears to be in some trouble – I’ll still rate that “lean Democrat” because they have so much power (and ability to cheat) in Seattle…but, clearly, Democrats are in some trouble. What we saw in 2021 was a pretty nearly uniform swing in VA and NJ of ten points from the Democrats to the GOP…if that holds true in 2022, a huge GOP year is coming…but there’s is a chance that the swing will be even larger. Meanwhile, Ron Jonson looks like a lock in the WI Senate rate while Kemp appears similarly situated in the Georgia governorship (don’t even talk about FL – Governor and Senate races will be called at poll closing in the Panhandle). What I can’t see is a huge divergence between PA and WI…they tend to flow together being States with a lot of demographic similarities. We’re about to clean up in WI but fail in PA? Could happen – but PA is trending Red much more rapidly than WI (voter registration changes in favor of the GOP mark out PA as the next FL). We’ll see what happens – but I’m expecting some pretty big wins in PA. Michigan? Officially, everyone says that Whitmer has it in a lock…and it would take a pretty big GOP wave to get the GOP over the top there. But we might have that.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan33 Comments

Who blew up the Nordstream pipelines? Who in heck knows – if it was blown up, it could be an act of war. But by whom and against whom? Very murky situation – but also very bad as it will increase pressure on global energy supplies as we enter winter.

The main thing here is that we wouldn’t have to care if Pudding Brain wasn’t strangling American energy production.

A couple respectable pollsters (there are a few) are starting to get it together and showing us winning pretty handily in Georgia, Arizona and Nevada – and with good signs in Pennsylvania. The more “stretch” races are in places like Washington and New Mexico. The bottom line is that 25 House and 2 Senate seats are within very easy reach of the GOP and that puts an end to Pudding Brain’s legislative efforts…and if McConnell allows even five federal judgeships to be filled over the next two years, I’ll be surprised.

But some people are starting to see that very much underneath the radar, GOP turnout might come as a huge shock to everyone. Remember, the leadership of the United States is calling us Nazi terrorist threats to Democracy…polling has shown (or, I guess, failed to show: but you know what I mean) the “shy GOP voter” over the past few cycles. This partially explains the massive misses recently – like when the aggregate in Ohio the day before the 2020 election showed it either tied or Trump barely ahead before he went on to win the State by more than 8 points. But the increased hateful rhetoric against GOP voters is possibly making ever more “shy GOP voters”: people who won’t even pick up the phone when the pollster calls…but who are yet determined to vote GOP in November. We’ll see if that happens…but if it does, then November 8th could be a bloodbath. And one sign that it might be happening is that Democrats are spending money in the Washington Senate race…which should be a walkover even in a strong GOP year.

That video I linked to PM Meloni? YouTube has deleted it. Because they are terrified of her…and so a bit of fascism is necessary here, to “protect” people, you see? All just to Save Democracy.

As Hurricane Ian bears down on Florida, the Democrats and the MSM (BIRM) are praying for a catastrophe they can blame on DeSantis. These are very sick and twisted people.

Our Progressive friends would like us dead. For our own good, of course. And to prevent us from Democracy-ing the wrong way.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan20 Comments

The MSM is increasing the “Democrats are surging to victory” Narrative. Still, though, with the whispered “but not really” articles here and there. They know the Democrats are getting wiped out. Among other reasons, here’s why:

The Dow is down 18.5% so far in 2022. I haven’t even checked my 401K because I don’t need that negative energy in my life (plus I’m wedded to “dollar cost averaging” in my investment strategy).

Oh, and gas prices have started to rise in some areas. And I paid more than $8 for a 12 pack of Coke. And they were nearly out of avocados. And totally out of the Diet Pepsi the Mrs prefers.

Basically, things are bad and getting worse – and the only thing the Democrats have is abortion and they are running hard on it. Now, could there be a solid majority for abortion in America? People so committed to it that they’ll turn the election for the Democrats? I doubt it. We’ll find out November 8th.

Some people have pointed out that it would be strange for Democrats/MSM to lie about how things are going – in other words, if they spend the next 6 weeks lying about how it will be, they’ll look terribly bad when the results are 180 from their assertions. This is a lack of understanding about how lies work – first and foremost, they work. They always work. No lie has even been spoken that didn’t work.

What do I mean? Surely there have been failed lies.

Well, sure. In fact, all lies fail. They can’t do other than fail. But for the liar, that isn’t the point. No liar is good at long-term thinking. Liars lie because they want to wring whatever advantage they can out of the moment. The cheating husband isn’t thinking about how his lies to his wife will work a year from now – he just wants to get away with his adultery right now. For the liar, all lies work because at least for a second, at the bare minimum, you are spending time refuting the lie – you are not advancing your own cause. You are on defense…while the liar already has his next lie lined up…and is advancing his cause while you’re refuting his last lie.

We can never know counter-factuals but it is my assertion that if the mere truth had been told in 2020, Trump would have won better than 60% of the vote and the GOP would have secured very large Congressional majorities. I’m not talking switching the MSM from anti- to pro-Trump: I’m saying that if the mere truth had been spoken, it would have been like that. That Biden was already in massive cognitive decline; that Hunter’s laptop and all the vileness on it was real; that the FBI has spent years lying about Trump/Russia; that Covid escaped from a Chinese lab and that lockdowns weren’t necessary; that VBM was obviously and only a method of voter fraud. On and on and on like that – the incumbent riding that wave of Truth would have crushed the hapless Democrats.

Lies work – even very stupid lies, such as Trump-Russia or the “very fine people” lie which Pudding Brain asserts was his reason for running. They have a corrosive effect – even the most wise are prey to them. Maybe there’s something to it? comes very much into play…but even with all those lies, Trump won more than 11 million more votes than in 2016: and so my assertion about how it would have gone if the truth had been told. So, the lies they’re using here in 2022 will also work…what should be a 50 seat House gain will probably be 30 or so. It’ll work – it’ll keep the Democrats in the game, and for the liars, that is all that matters.

Now, on to the really scary thing: the murder of Cayler Ellingson: this is a watershed moment in the life of our Republic. A kid was hunted down and murdered for his political beliefs. The last time this sort of thing happened the Freedom Riders were trying to end Jim Crow. But there’s a difference – back then, the Establishment was on the side of the hunted. Here in 2022, it is on the side of the hunters. Even the allegedly GOP AG is downplaying it – and the murderer was charged basically with leaving the scene of an accident and given bail…while J6 detainees are sitting in solitary for trespassing. Make no mistake about it – this is very bad. Joe Biden in his Hitlerian speech the other day gave permission for this…and if our Republican leaders don’t start punishing the Democrats for this sort of thing then people will start to defend themselves against perceived threats.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan75 Comments

Starting to see the hedge posts from the Pundit class – “although the Democrats stand a good chance in November, there are indicators that things may go badly”. This is just so that when their poll models come up short on November 8th, they’ll be able to refer back to these posts to show, “see? I told you it wasn’t in the bag!”. The grift must go on! And for each post injecting a little reality into the debate, they’ve got a hundred from fantasy-land.

The bottom line is that the fundamentals still favor the GOP – if it is just a normal first mid-term, the Democrats will certainly lose the House and will likely lose the Senate (the sleeper elections here, for me, are New Hampshire and Colorado: outside chance we can win them). When you add into these fundamentals still high prices (including for gas! They want us to be grateful that it went from, here in Las Vegas, $5.25 a gallon to $4.45 – gee, thanks Joe!), the recession, the border crisis, rising crime and a general sense of incompetence and failure at the top, we could see some very strange results on November 8th. It is hold on to your hats: let’s see what happens. But Joe Biden’s term ends on November 8th…with the House, if nothing else, his legislative agenda is finished.

What we’re not seeing from the GOP leadership is a full understanding of what the Base is expecting supposing the GOP wins both houses – we’re not looking for ways to work with Democrats. We want unrelenting war. Hearings. Investigations. Government shut-downs. If necessary, bust the filibuster and just send popular bill after popular bill to Joe’s desk for him to veto. McConnell, as I’ve noted before, is just not the man for this hour – and I honestly don’t think he wants to be the leader of a MAGA GOP. Hopefully, he can be eased out. McCarthy is on a little firmer ground…but if he gives us “compromise” on things like guns and border security, there will be a revolt in the GOP Caucus which will be more MAGA than ever before come January.

It is time for lines to be drawn – we’re the party of freedom and we’re going to prove it.

Youngsters are finding that hooking up with people on Tinder isn’t working out too well. We could have told them that – but, kids don’t listen much on that score. What will be cool is that those who survive this will carefully instruct their sons and daughters on right conduct.

Turns out that it has been Federal law since 1960 that election records – every last scrap of paper related to them – are supposed to be preserved by the election officials. This will not surprise you: of the 100 largest counties, 94 did not keep such records. As most large counties are Democrat-run, there ya go. It has been my contention really since about 2003 that in the deepest Blue areas, nobody has the foggiest notion of how many votes are cast and for who. Given what I’ve seen since then, I’m more and more of the conviction that the votes are just made up – whatever is needed to produce the desired results, that is what is announced. We’ve got to think about this: in the deepest Blue areas illiteracy is common as is welfare dependency…illiterate welfare bums do not have a high propensity to turn out. Especially as on the local level, the result is pre-determined (like there is any chance a GOPer – or even an anti-Establishment Democrat – can win in places like Chicago and San Francisco…no matter how bad things get). The attempted recount of Michigan in 2016 was another eye-opener. It was quickly shut down as they started opening ballot boxes marked “500 ballots” only to find, say, 20 or so in there: that is something which didn’t get a lot of MSM airplay!

What keeps us afloat right now is that Democrats don’t have total control of the process – and the reason they are trying to impose federal law on all voting is because they want that control. What we have to do is ensure that where we do get power, we implement Florida-style rules to ensure Democrats can’t cheat. And when we have federal power, send federal agents into the deep Blue areas to monitor the elections…the first step being to simply count how many people show up and compare that to reported votes. The Democrats have always cheated – and they never, not even once, cheated just a little bit. They are always looking to alter the result in their favor. They just put the cheating into overdrive in 2020 to get Trump out. They will continue to cheat, on an ever grander scale, unless we stop them.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan46 Comments

The assertion about the mid-terms is that the Dobbs decision is motivating female voters to turn out for Democrats. Is there any truth to this claim? Only in polling. But, as I’ve pointed out before, polling is the political metric most open to manipulation.

This also leaves out the fact that not all women back abortion. I know the the MSM will never cover such a thing, but the bottom line is that women have been leading the charge against Roe ever since the decision was handed down. Would not their victory against overwhelming odds and after so many years of struggle motivate them to cement their achievement into a pro-life Congress?

For me, I just don’t see abortion as being that great a motivator for the Democrats outside of the urban and suburban upper class white women who were going to vote for them anyway. Might get a few more of them to actually show up in November, but not in any numbers necessary to save Democrat bacon.

I stand by my prediction – made months ago – that the GOP is heading for a blowout win on November 8th. Could I be wrong? Of course I could. I’m human! But we’re in a recession. Food prices are high. Crime is rising. Foreign affairs are a mess. Its the first midterm for the Democrats since their victory. The GOP gained House seats in 2020. They only need a few to claim a majority. Voter registration and primary participation numbers (even after Dobbs) clearly favor the GOP all around the country (it won’t matter because the State is so Democrat, but in Hawaii the GOP primary turnout was up like 125% or some such).

And lets think about something – if you’re a Democrat you sure in heck don’t want to talk about the economy or crime or foreign affairs. But you have to talk about something. Sure, you’re talking Trump…but you can’t just talk about him, right? So, what? How about abortion? That’s the ticket – talk abortion. Maybe frame it to scare our halfwit female voters (something like 36% of college educated white women agree with the sentence “some men can get pregnant”; rely on it, the number of GOP women included in that 36% is next to zero)? Goose that turnout and maybe turn a few narrow, suburban losses into holds? And then, hey preseto, here comes a bunch of polls saying that women are talking 24/7 about abortion and, buddy let me tell you, they’re gonna make the GOP pay for it! Convenient how everything in the Establishment comes together just the way the Democrats would want, right?

Now, maybe women are fired up to save Roe? Could be. I guess. If so, then we on the right have a far larger problem than we suspected. We’ll find out for sure on November 8th…but I’m sticking with my prediction.

Over in Pennsylvania Dr Oz is doing all he can to win – he’s barnstorming the State while Fetterman apparently still has a long way to go on recovery from his recent stroke. As I’ve been saying for a while, Pennsylvania is the next Florida. Voter registration trends have been massive for the GOP year after year. It might seem like the State is still favorable to Democrats, but that is an illusion mostly brought about by habit and really, really bad polling. Remember, in 2018 4 of the last 5 polls in Florida showed a substantial lead in the governors race for Gillum…only to have DeSantis win. And it wasn’t like the polls were close – the day before the election Quinninpiac had Gillum up by 7. So, I take those polls showing Fetterman (who can barely speak) up by 10 over Oz with a truckload of salt. Same, too, with the governors race in PA. Some people got mad the other day when Oz said he would have voted to certify the 2020 results…but I didn’t. I pointed out early on that Oz will have to go off-MAGA on at least some issues to be electorally viable in a State trending Red but not quite there yet. Taking a contrary position on the 2020 election result is the most meaningless off-MAGA gesture he could make.

Latinos are trending GOP. Hard. And Democrats are starting to notice and it is really pissing them off. So, what do you think they’re doing about it? Reassessing how they approach the community? Reconsidering things like Latinx and telling school kids they can change gender? Maybe concentrate on policies which will provide the sort of well-paid, blue collar jobs which sustain most Latino families these days? Oh, heck no! What made you think they’d do anything like that?

What they’re doing in response to the GOP gains in the Latino community is figuring that the GOP is lying to them and that Latinos are too stupid to figure this out:

There is nobody quite so racist as a white liberal – they simply cannot believe that any POC would disagree with them and if they do, it is because they’re stupid…and so need white liberals to speak for them.

I do believe – and it is one of the reasons for my prediction of a GOP blowout win – that Latinos will show that they want something different in November. This vote will not necessarily be an endorsement of the GOP: it will be far more, in my view, a rejection of the Left than anything else. To secure the long term loyalty of Latino voters, the GOP will have to do the concrete things necessary to show them we’re serious – a strong economy; low crime; good schools. That sort of thing. As for the Democrats, their party strength is in upper class white women and black women in general. This is not enough to sustain them in power. If they lose Latinos (and they are) and if support among black males starts to crumble (there is some indication of this) then Democrats will be reduced to an urban rump incapable of winning national power.

I Forgive Your Debts Open Thread (All Praise to Our Magic Wand!)

Mark Noonan94 Comments

How well is Pudding Brain’s student loan scam going over? Well, three endangered Democrat Senators have already come out against it – including Cortez-Masto here in Nevada, who is already being roasted by GOP candidate Adam Laxalt about it.

I really can’t think of a more maladroit move in recent years – 10k is a pittance, most of it is going to go to the rich, the action is probably not legal and so may be reversed in court after a bunch of people think they’ve skated on debt. Nobody really likes this other than Social Media bot accounts paid to praise whatever it is that Democrats are doing (they’ve all gone silent on praising the raid on Trump’s home, if you want to know how that went over with the public). You might think that they should have gone through Congress but that 3 Democrat Senators have already condemned it shows how that would fare – especially as House Democrats likely wouldn’t vote for anything less than 100% cancellation. It is also so clearly and easily seen as a cynical, political ploy with the mid-terms in mind.

But, also, pay attention to what Cortez-Masto and other Democrats are doing. Remember – and you’ve heard some liberal commenters here say it – the Narrative is that Joe “Shades” Biden has masterfully turned things around. Pivoting from the GOP’s disastrous end of Roe, he’s now got “big legislative wins” which are building towards a remarkably strong Democrat showing in November. And NY-19 proved it! Don’t know if you followed the Social Media meltdown on that one last night…but it was where a Democrat district shifted 9 points to the GOP but the Democrat still won, so this means the GOP is doomed – DOOMED, I TELL YA!!!! – in November. But, meanwhile, there’s not a Democrat out there who wants Pudding Brain on the campaign trail with them (though in Florida the Democrats are in full Kamikaze Mode and may invite him down to seal the deal of a 15 point plus GOP win)…and out here in Nevada’s 4th District, the Democrat is running working class hero ads where he doesn’t mention that he’s a Democrat and, funny, isn’t touting Biden’s “big legislative wins” nor making any promise to restore Roe.

Two rules about politics in 2022:

  1. Whatever is in the MSM is a lie.
  2. Never look at what people say: watch what they do.

Meanwhile: actual harbinger – the GOP flipped school boards all over Florida yesterday. A lot of school boards. This is where the pushback actually starts. We’re winning school boards and county commissions. No longer will we allow hard Leftists to rule these incredibly powerful institutions under the guise of being “non-partisan”. They are partisan – and we’re taking them back.

California will ban new sales of gasoline powered cars by 2035. This is supposed to set the trend for the end of the internal combustion engine…but as California’s population is collapsing (some estimates are that they screwed with the Census numbers pretty badly and that CA should have lost 3 rather than 1 House seat) and this will merely accelerate that trend, I don’t think this will be a trendsetter. The bottom line is that the internal combustion engine works. It is vastly more efficient and durable than it has ever been and we can get even more miles for even less gasoline out of it. Until electric cars cost no more than 5% more than non-electric, can go 350 miles on a charge costing no more than a tank of gas and take no more than ten minutes to recharge, they simply can’t replace internal combustion and all efforts to force the pace will end in disaster.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan57 Comments

Note to self: when its 100 degrees in Vegas and 40% humidity, best not to trim the hedge out front.

We’ve had the wettest monsoon season in years here in Vegas…been muggy with lots of rain. Some very cool thunderstorms, which is always nice. But, also, a lot cooler than usual. We did have about a two week period in July where it was blazing at 110+, but we’ve had a lot of daytime highs in the 90s over the past two months and I’ve never seen that in my 25 years here. Wonder if we’re in for a cold, wet winter? Be nice – the drought in the southwest has gone on more than a decade and it is time for it to end.

From what I’ve been able to glean from votes, it looks like we might have a 10 point swing to the GOP in November from the 2020 result. This would be a rather catastrophic loss for the Democrats. Just take a look at all the House districts Democrats won by less than 10 and you can see their vulnerability. Of course, it won’t be uniform across the nation. Some Democrats will buck the trend but any Democrat who isn’t running 10 points ahead right now is in trouble.

This is why you’re seeing polls showing Democrats doing well in Red and Purple States. They have a two-fold purpose:

  1. Convince Democrat donors to pony up. Hard to get Blue money into Ohio if its a coming loss, right? No amount of money will actually cure what ails the Democrats but their calculation is that it will be less-bad. Meaning that if a lot of money is poured into Ohio it will shore up marginal Ohio Democrats and trigger GOP spending which could be spent elsewhere.
  2. To get GOPers depressed, worried and pouring resources into places that are in the bag. Like Ohio. Every dollar spent there is a dollar not spent on races which the GOP could win if a full court press was made. A GOP challenger in a D+6 State or district usually doesn’t see a red cent of RNC money because it is normally a waste of money…but in 2022, the payoff might be magnificent. The polls are designed to head fake the GOP away from such efforts. Naturally, the GOPe is falling for it. But some outside groups aren’t. We’ll see how it plays out.

I’ve been thinking about McConnell and the coming GOP Senate majority – and it seems to me that McConnell’s heart isn’t in it. To McConnell’s credit, when Trump was elected, he worked with Trump, especially on judges. But he didn’t really work a lot with Trump, now did he? A lot more could have been done in 2017 with the GOP trifecta had McConnell really pressed the issue. He didn’t. And McConnell likely didn’t because he didn’t like Trump. And when fraud clearly altered the 2020 result, McConnell (like the rest of the GOP leadership), dropped Trump like a bad habit. They did this because they thought that Trump and what he represented was done. That we, the base, would just roll over and accept the fraud and then nominate a Jeb! for 2024. I think that as McConnell sees the GOP becoming increasingly Trumpist, he just doesn’t like it. He also doesn’t know what to do about it. It is time, I believe, for a change – we might not be able to force McConnell out in 2023, but we should be able to get some of ours into senior leadership so that when McConnell rides into the sunset, a MAGA Senator is in charge.

Now, Devil’s advocate: can we end up losing? At least in the sense of not scoring as many victories are we should win in this environment? Of course we can – politics is screwy. All signs (other than polls) show a big GOP win coming, but you can never tell until the actual votes come in. But I see no reason to fret about it – we’re either going to score big or we’re not. And if we don’t score big, then our problem isn’t candidate selection or policy or what have you…failure to win big in 2022 simply means the USA is much further Left than we think. This is a whole different problem: it would mean we’d have to start all over again and figure out how to craft any sort of Right message which can win in a Left world.

Meanwhile, Democrats have got their finger on the pulse – today, in Miami, the Democrats showed up for their rally waving Communist flags. No, I’m not kidding: they really did. They’re waving the hammer and sickle in front of an electorate which fled precisely that. I don’t think this is going to work the way Democrats hope.

2022 Election (and Some Other Stuff, so Kinda an Open Thread)

Mark Noonan31 Comments

In the 2010 midterms, the overall House popular vote was 52% Republican, 45% Democrat. That election netted the GOP 63 House seats. Of course, we were coming back from a pretty low number after our 2008 wipe out. But the main thing is that it was an R+7 year which, certainly since WWII, was unprecedented for the GOP.

So, what is happening in 2022? Well, if you listen to the MSM and the Experts (though Lord only knows why you’d do that), Joe Biden’s firm and decisive leadership has turned things around and the Senate is almost sure-Democrat while the House is a tossup. And, man, do they have poll after poll showing this…someone even released a poll showing the Democrat up by 3 in Ohio. We’re doomed!

Well, maybe not.

Someone actually took the time to find out what people are doing – as opposed to what someone else is saying about what they’re doing – and he found that as of this past Tuesday, the GOP portion of the primary vote has been running 6 points head of Democrat voting…so, R+6. Not quite at 2010 levels, but pretty darn close.

As I keep trying to explain to the hand-wringers and bed-wetters on social media, for there to be actual improvement for the Democrats something has to get better. And, sorry, but a drop in gas prices from stratospheric to way too high doesn’t cut the mustard. The bottom line is that as soon as Pudding Brain got installed into the White House, 2022 became a GOP year. What this means is that the House goes GOP (given the Democrats only have a half dozen seat advantage) and the Senate probably goes GOP (Democrats having a little better chance there because of the map). That was if things sort of cruised along with nothing bad happening. Remember what Biden was supposed to be about: shutting down the virus and returning to normalcy. This didn’t happen. Afghanistan happened. Ukraine happened (and I perceive the Ruling Class is getting ready to ditch Ukraine). Shortages happened. Inflation happened. A flood of illegal immigrants happened. All the while Joe Biden getting increasingly senile and unable to perform the basic tasks of the office. Not only did nothing get better, everything got worse – and Biden coming down with Covid just puts a pathetic exclamation point on the fail.

Can the Democrats overcome all that? If they can, then we’re doomed. It would mean that we’ve gone so far mindlessly Left that even abject Leftist failure doesn’t shake the people out of complacency. But I don’t think that is the case. Among many other things, I’m encouraged by Lake’s win of the GOP nomination in Arizona – every part of the Establishment was against her…and she went on to win every county in Arizona. Sure, its just on the GOP side, but we’ve been Expertly informed that Trump and Trumpist candidates are fading and that Roe has triggered a surge of moderate GOP voters who are determined to change the party’s course. Their evidence is Kansas where a badly crafted pro-life initiative was soundly defeated…and, yes, some of these Expert nimrods are asserting it means Kansas votes Democrat in November.

What I’m saying is: don’t worry. We’ll either win (cool) or lose (unlikely) but in neither case is there much any individual can do about it. Either America is sane enough to properly punish the Democrats (I think we are) or America is not. We find out in November.

The Other McCain notes that what is said cannot happen – gay pedophilia – does, indeed, happen. Rather twisted case: gay couple adopts child and then sexually abuses child. Does this mean that all gay people are molesters? Of course not – but as RSM points out, we’re not even allowed to talk about such things because the Ruling Class has decreed that gay people can’t be abusers. Gay people have been granted a plenary dispensation from ordinary human sin, you see? What is really crucial here is that because we allow ideology to blind us, we’re not able to make the distinctions necessary to ensure the best outcome. Rely on it, if a hetero couple seeks to adopt, they’ll be checked six ways to Sunday to make sure they aren’t abusers…but I am certain that if a gay couple is even looked at in that area, it is perfunctory…because nobody wants to be the official who vetoed a gay adoption. The kid winding up abused doesn’t risk a career, after all.

New study shows that being in space has a bad effect on bones. I guess it ends up being that a few weeks in space can age your bones by the equivalent of about a decade. This is entirely unsurprising to me: whether you believe we were created by God in a second or evolved over millions of years, the plain fact is that our bodies are designed to live on the surface of the Earth. We can’t even successfully go too deep into water or high into the sky without special equipment. And at least when we’re flying at 80,000 feet or diving to the bottom of the Marianas Trench we’re still within Earth’s gravity and magnetic field (which is our primary shield against solar radiation). Until we learn how to deal with low or no gravity and how to shield ourselves from solar radiation, the primary means of deep space exploration will have to be via unmanned vehicles…and for all the dreams of colonizing Mars, it is currently a suicide mission until these problems are solved.

A NYC bodega owner who was assaulted (and the DA initially wanted to charge him for defending himself) is moving back to the Dominican Republic because he no longer feels safe in the USA. This is Joe Biden’s America – and this is the result of deliberate and quite malicious policies on the part of the Democrats who want crime to be high in order to stress the system and convince us to go far Left as our escape from it.

How is religion in America doing? To the Ruling Class, it is dying and deservedly so. But, others say it is still doing ok. I take a slightly different view: Religion isn’t dying, but actual belief in Christianity is in rapid decline as even many professed Christians haven’t been taught who Christ is and what it means to be Christian. And this cuts across all denominations…mainline Protestant, Catholic and Evangelical. The Mainline Protestants seem to view Jesus as a swell guy who wanted everyone to be nice to each other. Catholics seem to think that it was all symbolic and you can pick and choose what parts to believe. Evangelicals seem to think Jesus is some sort of magic talisman against suffering and/or to bring personal wealth.

To be sure, among all types, there are those who deeply believe and understand what they believe…but my bet is that a majority of Christians if questioned right now wouldn’t even be able to assert that Jesus is God. And it is because they haven’t been taught. Christianity is not a religion for sissies – it is the only religion in the world hated for its beliefs (Jews are hated for cultural reasons: nobody really disputes Jewish theology); it asks a great deal of believers. And it requires an informed and active consent on a daily basis. It is a tough religion…and so, naturally, it has been watered down in the past century. But the hard nub is still there…and I do believe a springtime will come.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan17 Comments

Getting massive gloom and doom punditry from the right these days about our November chances…all fueled by polls. There is a great deal of “as per usual” in this, but I think this year there is an extra twist on it – the underlying contention is that the GOP was heading for a massive win this year until Trump endorsed a bunch of crazies! I do detect a GOPe desire to dampen GOP prospects as a way to cut against Trump for 2024. There are plenty of Establishment types who would love a Democrat victory if it meant that they could stop worrying about Trump coming back.

Will it work? I don’t think so. As I’ve said for years, never pay attention to what people say, but what people do. And all through 2022 the voters have been turning to the GOP. The key markers for me right now is primary turnout and voter registration trends and both of these show a remarkable surge for the GOP.

The Nuclear Option on keeping Trump out in 2024 is, of course, to indict him – and if he’s indicted, rely on it they’ll craft a jury which will find him guilty. Doesn’t matter if he’ll win on appeal, they feel that such a move would prevent him running. I don’t think so. It would be such an obvious political indictment that it might actually work to Trump’s favor. Will they do it? Depends on how desperate they get.

For 2022, it is the Recession, stupid. Naturally, the palace guard MSM swung into action to tell us that a recession isn’t a recession when a Democrat is in charge…but the problem they have is that people are living in the recession and no amount of spin changes that.

I’m sure you’ve heard the joke that when seconds count, the police are minutes away – well, in New Orleans, they are two and a half hours away. That is the average response time, and it means that New Orleans effectively has no police, at all. This is not sustainable – eventually, vigilantes will appear.

I don’t know how many of you are J K Rowling fans, but she got herself into trouble over transgenderism…keep in mind that Rowling is a big Lefty in everything else, but she did make the reasonable statement that a woman is a woman and this set off the trans rights people. Fundamentally, they can’t hurt Rowling because she’s already made buckets of money off her Harry Potter books…but the attacks on her are relentless. Now, imagine this turned on a regular person who didn’t have all that money? That’s the problem we have to address…the online bullying that we do have to stop.