Campaign 2020

Open Thread

M. Noonan24 Comments

This is certainly interesting:

In Washington state, where his approval rating is 28 points underwater, Trump has still racked up far more donations, big and small, than any of the Democratic candidates — in fact more than the top six Democrats combined.

I’m not talking about total dollars raised — though on that front Trump is a juggernaut, too. But the total number of donations reflects how many people are inspired enough by a candidate to send any amount of money, sometimes repeatedly.

This is Blue Washington. Where you often have to think twice about the risk to your job and social standing if you support the wrong candidate or party. Does this mean Trump will win Washington. No. It’d take a miracle. But, it does show that Trump is not just gaining support, but gaining support which is willing to take a public stand. I’ve been thinking that public opinion polling for this cycle is off because the pollsters simply don’t know about the country they’re living in – that we’re actually very much a populist, center/right nation and that a large part of the populist, center/right people are (now former) Democrats. We’ll find out next year if my theory is correct…but unless the vote comes out that way, I refuse to believe that even a large minority of my fellow Americans are Antifa-loving, open borders trans rights activists.

The Ninth Circuit (yes, that Ninth Circuit) seems to have a struck a blow against the Left’s tactic of finding a judge in Hawaii to issue nationwide injunctions against Trump Administration policies. We’ll see how it plays out – but the higher Courts do have to gain a measure of control here if they don’t want to get crushed under politics. It is ridiculous that some obscure federal judge out there can stop the policy of the duly elected President on a whim. To me, it should be only the Supreme Court able to issue nationwide injunctions.

The New York Times is framing slavery as being central to our existence as a nation. And Beto was out there saying that our nation was founded on racism. Don’t look for any logic behind this view: there isn’t any. It is entirely stupid – but I’ve been pondering this and I recalled the first time I heard this theory. I had watched Farrakhan’s speech at his so-called “million man march” and that is exactly what he was on about: that white people are inherently racist and America is, thus, inherently racist. To call America a racist nation is to assert that everything which has happened in this nation up until just now was evil. I’m not quite sure what the Left’s thinking here is – it could be that hatred has just made them stupid. I don’t know how many people are going to rush out and vote a party which considers your nation evil.

Epstien’s attorneys are not entirely on board with the suicide ruling. I don’t think anyone – left or right – is. But, I also don’t think there’s any way to resolve this: the institutions of government have poisoned the well. Too often caught in flat out lies to be trusted: there’s no way to investigate something like Epstein’s death and remove all doubts.

Open Thread

M. Noonan7 Comments

I did a little checking with Expert Opinion and its still pretty set: Trump is doomed. And I mean in the “he hasn’t got a chance” sense. But then you see the crowd at Trump’s rally in New Hampshire last night. Honestly, I can’t see how the man loses – his opponents can’t draw flies. But, the polls say he’s done. I guess we’ll find out next year.

As if you didn’t already know this, there’s leaked audio of the New York Times deciding to switch from “Russia” to “Racism” against Trump. Long time readers might remember my very long series of “What Media Bias?” posts. I stopped doing it because it was so obvious that it really didn’t need further explanation. But, still, nice to get some absolute confirmation.

China is cracking down on Hong Kong – some people are officially upset with Trump as he’s not being forceful about it. But, what’s he really supposed to do? He’s already engaged in a trade war with China. He’s already trying to detach North Korea from China’s orbit. He’s already buddying up to India and Vietnam against China. He’s rebuilding our Navy. He’s sending our ships into waters claimed by China. Short of war, there’s nothing we can do for Hong Kong: and I don’t think anyone wants to fight China over Hong Kong. It is sad, but it was inevitable: a tyranny simply will not tolerate the slightest bit of freedom. China only kept hands off until disruption wouldn’t roil markets too badly…and rely on it that Hong Kong’s rich will cut whatever deals are necessary with Beijing.

SpaceX is talking up its mission to Mars. I think we should go visit Mars, but I’m doubtful about our ability to live off Earth for any length of time. The more we learn about the planets, the more incredible it is that Earth has life…things just have to be so incredibly perfect for life to exist that the chances of it existing elsewhere are getting vanishingly small…and we’re also learning that what Earth has is not at all easy to replicate, even on a small scale. Among the massive problems, I see radiation as the largest. Living things don’t like it: our atmosphere and magnetic field keep out lots of it…but once away from Earth, you lose that protection and have to make the means of keeping it off you.

The Trump Administration has been facilitating talks between Israel and various Arab States…this is because Trump is just smarter than anyone we’ve had in the White House since Reagan.

Open Thread

M. Noonan17 Comments

Ace went off on a bit of a rant about the fact that both US and Brit intel people were passing messages back and forth wondering if both Brexit and Trump were the result of Russian interference:

These people are literally insane, and were in the grips of a hysterical delusion — “without evidence,” as the hysterical leftwing media might say — and they run the f***ing world without our consent and in secrecy.

These “intelligence officials” are so completely out-of-touch they cannot fathom even the possibility that the wider public might deviate from the BBC/MSM line that defines their reality, and immediately suspect RUSSIAN AGENTS must be behind any deviation from the expected left-liberal upper middle class consensus that they believe is the only mode of thought or possibility in the world.

Ace goes on to note that they are “pig-ignorant and stupid”. I fact checked that assertion and found it to be completely true. The people who run the world are mostly behind the scenes and man the corporate and government bureaucracies around the world. The all went to the same sort of schools and learned the same sort of things and are completely convinced they simply know better than everyone who isn’t in their clique. Trump, Brexit, Hungary, Poland…all these people and movements which propose to give regular folks a say are a terror to these people. They really do fear that if we secure power, we’ll immediately launch global nuclear war…that is, if we don’t immediately start committing genocide. They think we’re too stupid to be trusted with power…and so it came naturally to them to think that we dimwits were being fooled by someone into wanting Britain to be free or America to be great again. And we simply must get rid of them – the survival of our nation and civilization requires it. They have to go, by any means necessary.

Democrats are pretty much all-in on Medicare for All…but I don’t think it’ll play well with suburban voters. We’ll see.

Yes, the polls are biased:

While looking into this phenomenon in 2016, I contacted a number of polling groups. I knew that they “weight” and adjust their samples to make them reflect certain demographics of the U.S. population. In simple terms, if their sample ends up with too many young people, they assign greater weight to responses from older people. The methods they use to do so vary and are arcane, to say the least. For example, ABC states that it “adopted iterative weighting, also known as raking or rim weighting, in which the sample is weighted sequentially to Census targets one variable at a time, continuing until the optimum distribution is achieved.”

But one of the most interesting things I learned had to do with one big factor for which they typically don’t “weight” or adjust. It’s one that I think is arguably among the most important when it comes to polls measuring political issues: political affiliation. In other words, the national pollsters I spoke with told me that if they end up interviewing significantly more Democrats than Republicans — which is often the case — they don’t necessarily adjust the results to try to make the sample reflective of the U.S. voting population.

I also bet that, on the flip side, if they are finding significant numbers of Democrats who are going towards the Republicans, they toss that data out. It is how they missed PA and MI in 2016…they probably had somewhere in their data the indication that Trump was doing well in both States, but as it didn’t fit their pre-determined polling outcome, they just ignored it. Right now, except for a few outliers, all polling indicates that Trump is doomed – that there isn’t the slightest chance of him winning. They even have polling showing the Democrats are taking Texas. Now, I can’t say for certain, because I don’t have certain knowledge: but I will say I highly doubt all this polling. I doubt that Trump could raise the money and draw the crowds if he was in such bad shape that he was about to lose Texas. I also doubt that somewhat more than 25% of his 2016 Texas voters have suddenly discovered a desire for far-left Progressive policies. But, we’ll see…and what we’ll see, I’m guessing, will be a repeat of 2016.

Open Thread

M. Noonan44 Comments

Interesting article about the Trump/Bolton dynamic. You may have been wondering – many have – how an Establishment guy like Bolton manages to work with Trump? Well, the bottom line is that Bolton is a patriot, first and foremost. Bolton knows that his job is to provide the President with the best advice possible…and then let the President decide the course of action. Bolton is, apparently, abrasive and pushy (and this does some times rankle Trump), but at the end of the day, when the President decides, Bolton backs the President. This isn’t the first time a leader had someone like that on his team – and the best leaders have two or three like that. You have to, if you want to win…you need people who aren’t afraid of you, who can shake you up, but who will also do as they’re told.

Omar’s family is keeping to Omerta about her marriage issues – to the point where even reporters trying to figure it all out just can’t do it. To me this means that there is something in there hideously embarrassing.

NR article about how the Left is convinced they’ve already won in 2020. I’ve seen this for about a year – especially after the mid-terms. the Left isn’t convinced they will win: they are convinced that they already have won; with a subtext that if Trump did somehow manage to win, it could only be via fraud. The Left looks at the vision of future America and the 2044 Presidential election wherein a majority of Americans will be non-white and so their future is assured, no matter what. No one seems to have told them that Texas is only 45.35% white. But, be that as it may, they are certain – and that is why they are pushing themselves ever further Left. They’ve already won, you see? And that means the Left has won…so by insisting upon open borders and Medicare for all, they are just doing what they were elected to do (next year, but don’t confuse the poor dears).

Meanwhile, some polls have Trump garnering support of 45% of Latino voters.

Boris Johnson will be the next British PM…and he’s pledged to get Brexit done, but I doubt he will. Certainly not the full break with the EU that the Brexit vote ordered. Britain is done. They lay supine under Iranian threats because they don’t have a fleet large enough to fight. They get arrested for saying The Bad Words. There’s nothing left.

Cory Booker says he’d like to beat Trump up. I doubt that Trump is worried.

We have to discuss nutsack waxing because our Tru-Con Expert Betters spent the last 50 years making sure Big Corporation was taken care of while civilization died.

Open Thread

M. Noonan32 Comments

Team Trump and the GOP are building a rather large ground game for 2020:

The Trump campaign and the Republican National Committee (RNC) are mobilizing thousands of volunteers in more than a dozen battleground states, including a handful that President Trump lost in 2016, as they seek to expand the electoral map ahead of 2020.

Trump Victory, a joint operation comprised of the Trump campaign, the RNC and state Republican parties, kicked off a “National Week of Training” on Friday in a bid to train more than 6,000 volunteers and register voters in 14 states that Republicans have set their sights on for 2020.

At the same time, the committee is adding to its roster of state directors overseeing its organizing efforts, hiring staffers in Colorado, Iowa, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Virginia, Republican officials told The Hill.

I’ve been wondering if Minnesota will correct its horrendous error of 1984, and 2020 might be the year it happens. We GOPers have looked and looked and looked at Minnesota and just haven’t been able to crack it. But, that’s how we thought about Wisconsin for the longest time, as well. In my view, the untold story of 2020 – though it will be told afterwards – is that the swing States are no longer Florida and Ohio, but Pennsylvania and Minnesota. Yes, I’ve heard the stories of Democrats surging in Texas…but, for 2020, that’s drivel. Trump will win Texas, easily. But, it can’t be taken for granted. Fortunately, the GOP is strong and well lead in Texas. Expanding the map is important, in and of itself, but I see something else at work here: Trump wants to win the popular vote, and he wants the House back. He’s got second term plans (most Presidents really don’t – which is why second terms are usually hideous and end up with the other party winning the next time around…Trump, I think, will change that).

Related: Democrats on the campaign trail are bedeviled by Trump’s strong economy.

Also Related, and enormously funny: factions of the Democrat party prepare to primary each other. Another untold story of 2020: the white, upper class, far left base of the Democrat party is going further and further left…so far left that Indys are being turned off and, just perhaps, a slice of Latino and African-American voters are being turned off, as well. Seriously: imagine yourself a middle or working class black guy…does anything these weirdos talk about resonate with you? Green New Deal? Open borders? Meanwhile, over there is Trump… and he’s at least a hell of a lot more fun than the Doofuses of Intersectionality.

The New York Times decides that the Soviets are the people to celebrate on the 50th anniversary of Apollo 11. This surprises none of you.

Open Thread

M. Noonan53 Comments

We’re winning, guys. Slowly, but surely:

The U.S. Supreme Court has reversed the 4th Circuit Court of Appeals, and has ruled that the 1925 ‘Peace Cross’ Memorial erected to remember World War I dead can stay on public land.

It is insane that any American court even accepted the case – it is not in any way, shape or form an establishment of religion to have a religious symbol on public property. The whole thing about the Establishment clause has been twisted – as we all know, because we’re not dumb and know history, an Establishment of Religion is where the government selects a religion and makes it mandatory – and provides various penalties, large or small, for anyone who doesn’t subscribe to the officially sanctioned religion. That is all the Founders were trying to prevent – they weren’t trying to prevent the erection of a memorial cross by a people, at the time, better than 95% Christian (and even today better than 70% Christian). We’ll get more and more like this as Trump’s judges take hold of the Judiciary.

I watched most of Trump’s re-election kickoff rally – I know all our Experts say he’s doomed and its all over and we’re just waiting for the Democrat to win…but, geesh! That was a big, enthusiastic crowd…and I can’t think of a Democrat who can draw that sort of crowd absent a rock star performing at the event. We’re, once again, told that crowd size doesn’t matter…ok, Experts: you say so. I guess we’ll see how it comes out. Oh, Trump raised nearly $25 million in the first 24 hours after his campaign announcement. That’s more than any Democrat, by a lot. Too bad for Trump that a poll is more important than people and donations, right?

If you watched that rally, you saw the themes Trump is going to hammer on over the next 18 months: People Vs Powerful; “I’m for you, they’re for anyone but you”; the economy is booming. That’s a pretty strong message.

Kamala Harris – providing more evidence that Trump is going to win – asserted in a Tweet that Trump’s plan to deport illegal immigrants is an effort to change our demographics. She’s saying that the Real Americans – the people she cares most about – are the illegals! With opponents like this, Trump doesn’t need any friends.

Roger Simon – now resident of Nashville where he’ll be one of the pioneers in the creation of the American Jewish Hillbilly Community – writes about his former home, Los Angeles:

I left Los Angeles for Nashville slightly over a year ago. When I call friends back in my former home (for 50 years), most of them tell me I got out just in time.

Actually, they’re wrong. I should have gotten out ten or even fifteen years before. The handwriting was on the wall. “California dreamin’,” pace Mama Cass, “was no longer a ray-al-it-tee.” It hasn’t been for a long time.

Read the whole thing – and I can attest to what Simon is saying. I’ve been around Los Angeles since 1970, off and on. I even lived there for a few years after I got out of the Navy. Since about, oh, 1995 or so, it has just started to crumble. The last time I was in downtown LA, I was nauseated…doubly so because LA is my father’s city, and my grandfather’s. And I remember how it was when I was a kid and it’s all been wrecked. It is dirty, it is falling apart, it is overrun with zombie-like people who, per reports, are sh**ting so much on the streets that there is typhus. This is what Liberalism does. This is what they want to do to your city. We have to stop them.

Open Thread

M. Noonan43 Comments

I got a Parler account. It advertises itself as the alternative to the left social media giants – we’ll see how it goes; a few teething problems as masses of people sign up, but it works pretty well and may do fine.

As more information comes out about the Mueller Report, it seems clear to me that it is a pack of malicious lies. I noted before it came out that it would be as lurid as possible, but also wouldn’t have anything on Trump, and that is proving correct. What is amazing, though, is how badly they constructed the lurid lies: they’re being easily knocked down, one after another. Ace – and others – have theorized that the report, itself, was meant as no more than a hook to hang Trump on. Make the report; turn it in; make it difficult for Barr to release it quickly and then selectively leak the lurid bits to build a public case that Trump has to go. Barr stopped that cold with his summary pointing out that there was no collusion or obstruction.

As for Barr, I suspect he’s further along in his efforts to find out what really happened than we think. What will come of it? I don’t know: it could be that some of the worst players in all this kept their hands legally clean…and to really unravel it we would need people willing to testify against their co-conspirators in return for reduced sentences…but, if the big boys kept their act together, we might only be able to go after some small fry who won’t be able to explain the totality of the coup attempt. I do hope that a lot of people wind up in jail over this – but I’m not sure it will be possible.

There’s a poll out which asserts Americans are more worried about Fake News than terrorism – which is a correct assessment. Terrorists can kill, but the lies in our MSM could trigger a nation-destroying civil war. 100% of the credit for people really waking up to how dishonest the MSM is goes to Trump…without him relentlessly hammering the MSM for their lies, they’d still largely be getting away with them.

RSM notes an anti-lesbian hate crime in Tennessee which, for some bizarre reason, hasn’t become a national news story. Watch the video, and you’ll see why.

Here’s a poll which is part of the Democrats’ battle space prep for 2020: allegedly shows Biden beating Trump in Texas by four percentage points. Trump beat Hillary by nine percentage points in 2016. Ask yourself: is there one thing – one thing, at all – which has Trump has done since 2016 which would make Texans sour on him to the point that the Texas vote for the Democrat would go from 43% to 48%? Of course there is no such thing – and the Texas economy is booming. There is zero – and I mean absolutely zero – chance that any Democrat beats Trump in Texas in 2020. And everyone involved in politics knows this. But, here’s the poll…and Democrats will tout it and GOPers in Texas (some, anyways) will wring their hands…but it is a garbage poll designed to deflate GOP spirits; that is all it is.

New York City is, like Los Angeles, developing a very bad rat problem. All part of the Progressive program to bring back bubonic plagues.

AOC asserts that Manafort should be released rather than kept in solitary at Rikers. Tip of the hat to the Commie on this one: she’s better, at least here, than most of her fellow Progressives. The bottom line is that Manafort was transferred to Rikers to pressure him. The Democrats need someone – anyone – to testify under oath that Trump broke a law. Treating Manafort like he’s some sort of crazed killer is an excellent way to break him. Trump should pardon Manafort (of course, another theory put out there is that they’ve done this to get Trump to issue a pardon so they can say “aha! That’s why Manfort didn’t talk!”. Even so: pardon him).

I Think I Was Bit by a Spider Open Thread

M. Noonan23 Comments

So, I sit down to dinner on Wednesday night and just as a I start eating, I feel a pain in my stomach. Couldn’t be the food, I was literally on my first bite when I started to feel it. After a couple hours, the pain becomes agonizing, but not constant. It is a series of very painful spasms in my abdomen. Naturally, being a guy, I pretend it isn’t a problem. But, all night long I’m unable to sleep because the spasms keep coming. By morning, I’m exhausted. The spasms have lessened in intensity, but now I feel nausea and I’m chilled to the bone, even on a warm Nevada day. But as the pain is less, I still pretend its nothing. I took a couple Tylenol before bed on Thursday night and I slept pretty well, but still woke up tired. Hardly any pain left but still just generally weak. At last, I start thinking that something might be up and perhaps it is related to that nasty red spot on my arm which is now itching like the Dickens. A quick look at photos and various bug bite descriptions and I narrow it down to either a black widow or hobo spider. As it turns out, I should have seen a doctor right away. I’ll keep an eye on it – but the swelling in the bite area does seem to be going down.

Abortion Barbie may seek a Congressional seat.

AOC (D-Marxist Study Group in the Village or some such)did the Hillary thing (“I ain’t in no ways tard”) while speaking to a largely African-American audience. There are many obvious marks of the Left, and one of the most prominent is complete contempt for their own supporters.

Some polls (FWIW) show that the public is starting to believe there was Collusion…but between Hillary and Russia. As there was (or, at least, Collusion between Team Clinton and foreign intelligence services), this is good news.

Looks like Mueller might have just made stuff up in his attempt to get Trump. This surprises none of us.

Rep. Eric “Nuke ‘Em” Swalwell (D-People’s Republic of North Mexico) is going to run for President. Shortly, it’ll be easier to list the Democrats who aren’t running.

Open Thread

M. Noonan11 Comments

Rep. Omar is being investigated for misuse of campaign funds. I’m thinking this isn’t GOPers digging up dirt, but Democrats who want to at least curb her, and maybe get rid of her. Its not that any Democrat actually disagrees with her, but they don’t want people like her to be the face of the House Democrats in 2020, when a lot of purple-district Democrats will be up for re-election.

Report that Team Biden thinks Team Sanders is responsible for the sudden concern people have about Biden being grabby with the ladies. Could be, but it could also be Harris. It is definitely some Democrat(s) who want to put a veto on Biden’s effort.

Bernie can still rake in the bucks, in the manner of all Socialist Leaders of the People: $18 million in his first report.

Portland, OR liberals have been cooking up a bogus story about anti-LGBT activity in the city. As soon as you heard it, you knew it was a lie – but RSM lays it out.

Cocaine Mitch is shutting down the Democrats agenda. Democrats and the MSM (BIRM) are upset.

Israel’s Jews in Space effort is doing very well.

Law Prof says defending free speech is unconstitutional. (((shrug))); what ya gonna do? They’re liberals. You know: morons.

Open Thread

M. Noonan50 Comments

Maddow has lived on Trump-Russia for two years. Not doing so well, now:

MSNBC host Rachel Maddow lost half-a-million viewers in just one week after special counsel Robert Mueller’s report indicated that he did not find enough evidence to support collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia.

Maddow has been one of the most prominent voices on the collusion conspiracy, spending most of her programs over the past two years on allegations that President Donald Trump coordinated with the Russian government to win the 2016 presidential election…

We’ll see how it plays out – but I think a lot of people who aren’t committed Democrats were going along with this MSM Narrative simply because, until just now, their faith in the MSM remained mostly unshaken. But I wonder if this is the start of a complete break-down…where people in large numbers simply stop believing the MSM? This plus things like the Smollett case might make for a vastly different electorate in 2020 as opposed to 2016. Back then, almost everyone had their doubts about Trump…but come 2020, those doubts might be long gone, and that means Trump will get voted on based on how people think things are going.

RSM has more on this.

Meanwhile, Don Surber takes an early look at Trump’s 2020 strategy.

Excellent article about the history of America’s various two-party systems – but I think that while correct in saying we’re in a re-alignment phase, it doesn’t acknowledge just what one side wants: a complete revocation of everything that came before. Call it what you will – “the left” is just a bit of shorthand – the people compromising the real movers of the Democrat party despise the United States and the civilization it sprang from. They want it all gone and a completely new thing fashioned in its place. This is why I say that our current fight is for all the marbles. This isn’t FDR routing the remains of the Gilded Age GOP…this is a conflict between antithetical forces and one or the other will be eliminated.

The New York Times is upset that Poland is ok with admitting Christian immigrants but not so keen on non-Christians. My view: better that your immigrants have at least some familiarity with your national culture. Also my view: Christians are the most oppressed people in the world and should be first in line for all refugee claims in the West. Also my view: we should increase immigration from sub-Saharan Africa because that will inject some very devout Christians into the United States and will just really annoy the heck out of liberals.