Obama 39%…Ron Paul 38%

More proof that 2012 is becoming an “anybody but Obama” year – from Rasmussen:

…Texas Republican Congressman Ron Paul earns 38% of the vote to President Obama’s 39% in the latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters. Fourteen percent (14%) like some other candidate, and eight percent (8%) remain undecided…

The reason we’re still wondering if Palin and Christie will get in the race is because it is becoming likely that whomever the GOP nominates, if they are just a credible alternative, will be the next President.  For a Republican, 2012 might be the easiest year to run, ever.

Setting aside the usual “its a long time and anything can happen” caveats, the political dynamic is shaping up to be excruciating for President Obama and his Democrats.  Only a sharp pivot away from liberalism can possibly change things sufficiently by November, 2012…and any such pivot opens up the prospect of ultra-liberals staying home, or opting for a Third Party candidate.  An incredible run of luck can still save Obama’s bacon, but that is just about it.

So, Republicans, choose with care – the guy or gal we nominate is whom we’re likely to be stuck with for four years.  No do-overs.

 

Democrats Go in to Panic Mode

Trying to save Wiener’s House seat – Jammie Wearing Fool has the details:

Maybe the folks in Brooklyn and Queens ought to make this a referendum on the failed Obama presidency. Considering he’s at a meager 36% approval in New York, a victory for GOP candidate Bob Turner would send shockwaves nationwide. So naturally the Dems are pulling out all stops. And you’ll never guess how they’re labeling Turner.

Nervous state Democrats are flooding voters with mailings blasting Republican candidate Bob Turner in the hotly contested 9th Congressional District, upping the ante in the closer-than-expected race to succeed disgraced ex-Rep. Anthony Weiner.

With President Obama’s standing in the polls in free fall, the state Democratic Committee’s mailings to Queens and Brooklyn residents accuse Turner of being a “Tea Party extremist” who wants to dismantle Social Security and Medicare.“…

We’ll see if it works – right now, the Democrat leads in polling by 6 percentage points, which you might think is healthy, but Democrats outnumber Republicans in the district by three to one.  This should be a walkover for anyone with a “D” after his name…but it’s not.  Also doesn’t help Democrats that Ed Koch, a true patriot, has crossed party lines to endorse the Republican (who is, by the way, a New York Republican…trying to paint him as some sort of frothing at the mouth conservative is absurd; but lies never present any difficulty to Democrats).

A message does need to be sent to Obama and his Democrats – something which will tell them that if they don’t ditch their extremism, the voters will punish them.  A win or even a close loss in this heavily Democrat, NY House seat would do it.  Whether or not Obama and Co will listen is another matter…

Palin to Announce on the 3rd?

From the Iowa Republican:

Although they claim to have no inside information, the volunteers that comprise Iowa’s Organize 4 Palin group are convinced the former Alaska Governor is running for President.  They also believe it is very likely she will announce her candidacy at a Tea Party event near Des Moines on September 3rd.

“It certainly makes a lot of sense for her to announce on that date,” said Richard Rogers, the 3rd District Co-Chair for Organize 4 Palin.  “It will be the third anniversary of her speech at the Republican National Convention.  That’s what launched her onto the national scene.  Announcing at that event would certainly be appropriate.  The timing is right.”…

They’ve had to move the event to a large venue because of the large crowd expected…and if she is going to run for President, this would be the place and time to do it.

 

Poll: GOP Holds 7 Point Lead in “Generic” Ballot

From Rasmussen:

…A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 44% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate, while 37% would choose the Democrat instead. The GOP’s lead is up five points from a week ago, the first full week survey since Congress and the president agreed on a spending cuts deal to raise the federal debt ceiling. Last week’s two-point gap was the narrowest lead Republicans had held since mid-May.

Republicans have led on the Generic Congressional Ballot every week since June 2009, leading by as much as 12 points and as little as two…

Liberals were happy with a Gallup poll of adults last week showing a 7 point Democrat lead…but a poll of likely voters is always better, and from what I can tell the Gallup sample was heavily over-weighted for Democrats.  Got to keep one thing in mind as we approach the House contest in 2012:  if the Democrats win, it means Nancy Pelosi is back in the Speaker’s chair…this will always motivate GOPers and GOP-leaners and discourage Democrats and Democrat-leaners.  And this is over and above the advantage the GOP will gain out of re-districting…people just don’t like Nancy Pelosi and other than corrupt hacks and fools, no one wants her holding the gavel, again.

Additionally, this poll continues to show something astounding – a long-term GOP lead in voter support on the Congressional level.  In all my life, I’ve never seen anything like it.  I put it entirely down to just how much TEA Party is injected in to the GOP…the more TEA, the more support.  The only thing which could really ensure a GOP Congressional loss next year is if we ditched the TEA Party.  Always remember that the Democrats want the GOP to break with the TEA Party because the Democrat leaders know that the TEA Party is where the GOP strength is.  Pelosi and Reid want more Specter, less Rubio…and which do you think will propel the GOP to victory?

That all said, don’t get cocky, GOPers…we’ve a long, hard fight in front of us and we have to be fully prepared if the Democrats choose to lie, cheat and steal their way to victory.  Ready to counter it, ready to overcome the pain and anger we’ll feel when they dump the refuse on us.  Get ready for the political fight of your life – something you’ll tell your grand children about.

Santorum Claims Iowa Momentum

From the Santorum Campaign:

Former Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA) far exceeded expectations in Ames and finished 4th in the Ames Straw Poll.

Today’s results were simply vindication for Senator Santorum’s belief that a clear, consistent and proven conservative record resonates with Americans. Outspent in Iowa by more than six to one in comparison to his nearest competitors, Senator Santorum showed that leadership trumps showmanship and that the American people deserve more than just television commercials, news conferences and empty promises…

Santorum has a point – he certainly wasn’t expected to do well in Iowa…a northeastern politician who was little known in Iowa managed to come in fourth (he certainly did better than Romney…another northeasterner who was beaten by Perry, who only announced on Saturday).

We’ll see if Santorum can build on this – he’d probably have to come in third, at least, in the Iowa caucuses to be taken seriously…and then he’d have to come in second in New Hampshire.  That is a high bar – he’ll have to outdo Paul’s legion of dedicated supporters while taking voters away from Pawlenty.  In New Hampshire, Romney is almost certain to win (and if he doesn’t, then he’s done), so the contest is for second place…if Santorum can do that, then he’s off to the races.  Not the nominee, by a long shot, but it would vault him in to the top tier of candidates.

It is still anyone race to win – Romney, Perry and Bachmann are the heavyweights; Santorum is one of the second tier candidates, all of which have their chances to break in to the top.  We have a very strong field of candidates, only two of which give me grave concerns should they be the nominee – Huntsman (was Obama’s ambassador, after all) and Paul (love him on economics, consider him completely wrong on foreign and defense policy).  Any one of them will get my vote and enthusiastic support against Obama because the safety of the United States requires that Obama leave office on January 20th, 2013.

UPDATE:  MN GOP wants Pawlenty to run for Senate.  That is an exceptionally good idea.  Doesn’t guarantee us a Senate seat from Minnesota, but ensures that the Democrats will have to fight tooth and nail to keep Klobuchar’s seat…and, of course, Pawlenty has already shown he can win State-wide in Minnesota.

Recall Day in Wisconsin (Bumped)

Forgot about that, huh?  Well our corrupt union bosses and assorted lefties didn’t – and today is the day when the long-suffering people of Wisconsin will decide if the left gets crushed or is given a mild reprieve.  If the GOP retains its Wisconsin Senate majority by even one seat, then that is a gigantic loss to the left, which has poured body and soul in to this effort.  If the GOP loses the majority, then it will be a minor set back for us and will be a tonic for the left.

It won’t, however, alter the dynamic.  This is the offest of off-year elections and, as I said, the left has been pouring it on.  Turnout will be key, and it is a complete mystery as to who will actually show up to vote.  There is some polling out there and from what I’ve read, most of it shows the GOP hanging on to the majority, with at 1 or 2 seat loss.  If, after a  massive effort, the Democrats come up short, it will demonstrate conclusively that their brand is fatally damaged, much as the GOP brand was by August of 2005…but even a win for the Dems here won’t be any sort of indicator that the left is resurgent…they will have won, by extreme effort, a narrow victory in a State long friendly to their views.

UPDATE:  Over at Hot Air, Ed Morrissey notes that Democrats have downgraded their expectations….from a “six for six” sweep to a hope to win “two or three”.  The news last night that Walker’s reforms will save Milwaukee a bag of money couldn’t have come at a worse time for liberals…essentially, the liberals of Wisconsin are fighting against that and in favor of the sort of policies which resulted in our debt downgrade.

UPDATE II:  As of 8:57 pm Pacific, the GOP has held three, the Democrats have taken two…the last race to be called will decide the Senate majority…or perhaps not; if the Democrats win tonight, they still have two up for recall next week and the GOP would have to win only one of them to regain the Senate majority if they lose it by one tonight.

At best, the left will have spent $20 million to win three State legislative seats; and a win which will in no way alter the dynamic of 2012.  Good job, lefties!

UPDATE III:  Hot Air reports that of the total votes cast tonight, the GOP has won by 52% to 48%…these same districts were carried by Obama 53% to 46%.

UPDATE IV:  Twitter reports indicate the GOP has won four of the six and thus retains Senate majority.  Not confirmed … but as Donks are already screaming voter fraud, we can call it “almost confirmed”.

UPDATE V:  From what I can tell, though the AP refuses to report it, the GOP has, indeed, won four of the six…and it would be just double extra cool if we beat the two Democrats next week.

Sarah Palin Proves She’d be a Better President

A long article on her Facebook page says all that needs to be said – do read the whole thing.  Here’s the crux of the matter regarding our debt:

… we need to get serious about our deficit. No more accounting gimmicks. No more cuts in “out-years” that never materialize. The permanent political class in D.C. might be fooling themselves with these Enron-like accounting games, but they’re not fooling the world’s capital markets. And we don’t need any more happy talk from the White House about “investing” in solar shingles and really fast trains. The White House shouldn’t even bother floating these new spending programs. We can’t afford them. Period. We need to stop this deficit spending, balance our budget, repeal Obamacare, cancel all unused stimulus funds, and reform our entitlement programs. We have to have an adult conversation about our spending commitments; circumstances have changed, and we must adapt. I know none of this will be easy, but, “thick” or not, the average American outside the D.C. politico bubble knows that we no longer have a choice! We will have entitlement reform and a balanced budget; it’s just a matter of how. We can do it ourselves in a calm, methodical, and responsible manner, or we can wait for the world’s capital markets to ram it down on us. Let’s be responsible and do it ourselves. And let’s get serious about reducing the size of government across the board and rooting out waste. How many more reports (that today are destined to merely gather dust on the shelf) do we need about duplicative and unnecessary programs before we actually do something about government waste?…

The whole thing is clear and concise and lays out the problem – fearlessly stating truths that Obama turns away from.  Obama would prefer to carp about “millionaires and billionaires” and have his minions try to make “TEA Party downgrade” go viral…but a real President will face the facts and propose changes which will solve the problem.

I don’t know if Sarah Palin will run – but if she does and obtains the nomination she’ll beat Obama in a landslide for the simple fact that she tells the truth and Obama doesn’t.

Poll: “Generic Republican” Bests Obama by Five

From Rasmussen:

…The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows the generic Republican with 47% of the vote, while the president picks up 42% support. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided…

Not the poll numbers of a man who just won a political battle.  Obama is severely damaged political goods.

He can (and likely, will) bounce back from this – and 2012 will be the hardest fought campaign in American history (possibly in world history).  Obama and the liberalism he leads and personifies will not go out without a fight.  No matter how bad things get, they will go after us with all they’ve got.  They will ask and give no quarter.

But, still, anyone who is worried that a robust, conservative message can’t win against Obama is nuts…any coherent alternative can beat him.  Better if its conservative, but the main thing for the 2012 GOP candidate is to not be Obama, just as for the Democrats the prime thing was to not be Bush.

We can beat him and his Democrats – and not just beat them, but crush them down so low that for 20 years they won’t be able to trouble us.  We can win the power necessary to restore American liberty and greatness…all we have to do is fight it out and never quit.

The Tea Parties, the Future of Liberty and Liberal Intentional Slander

After Barak Obama (the obAMATEUR to realists) became president in January 2009, he signed the infamous “stimulus package”, worth $787 billion, of liberal dream spending with virtually no Republican support (and rightfully so).  As it was rammed through with little reading or debate, we were told that it was “necessary”, “to keep unemployment under 8%”.  Practically overnight as one of its highest priorities, the federal government became the “Home Depot” by weatherizing government buildings and housing projects (excuse me “housing developments”).  Streets and highways with little or no need of repair would be broken up and repaved.  The DOT and other government agencies would spend millions on signs advertising the supposed benefits of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act.  I saw one of those signs first hand in Washington DC.  It stated that the park on Roosevelt Island would be receiving a generous “grant” to facilitate the involvement of local youth in the removal of “non-indigenous plants”.  To put it simply, local kids would be weeding the island.  This was going to save the economy and the country??

Then there were several “projects” and “studies” also financed by the ARRA.  One project, numbered 1R01AA01658001, titled “Malt Liquor and Marijuana: Factors in their Concurrent or Separate Use”.  This grant of $400,000 to a professor at New York State at Buffalo has the following official abstract: “We appreciate the opportunity to refocus this application to achieve a single important aim related to our understanding of young adults’ use of malt liquor, other alcoholic beverages, and Marijuana, all of which confer high risks for experiencing negative consequences including addiction.”  Wow, $400,000 to study something we already knew???  Other such “grants” followed, to ACORN, to the study of porn, to the study of fish migrations and mating habits of certain animals, etc. etc.

The cost of the stimulus was later revised to $862 billion (an underestimate of 10%).  If a private business made such a blunder in outgoing funds it would most likely go out of business.  But I digress…..  As a result of this boondoggle of liberal spending, the TEA Party was born.  It was by accident really that this organization was founded.  Thanks to Rick Santelli on CNBC and his rant against the stimulus package and a particular proposal to for it to also subsidize what he called the “losers mortgages”.  He proposed a ceremonial dumping of  of derivative securities into Lake Michigan.  A few hours later a website popped up with a call for a “Chicago Tea Party” and Santelli’s video rant. The video became viral across the nation.  Average Americans were furious about the massive new spending and the revelations about previous spending on those “studies” and “grants”.  This alone was not the sustaining factor in keeping the TEA Party movement alive but the fact that: Under President Obama, federal spending has been growing at an unprecedented pace.  We are adding $4.8 billion to the national debt everyday.  The long-term viability of Medicare and Social Security isn’t merely uncertain – as so many analysts would have us believe.  In fact their failure is is a sure thing without structural changes.  By adding massive new entitlements with the health care bill we are simply going to go broke faster.

The TEA party gained so much momentum so fast, it was a threat to the liberal establishment.  Immediately pundits, the obAMATEUR friendly media, the Democrats went into full gear with their baseless and usual smear tactics and attacks.

Susan Roesgen of CNN (once an anchor in New Orleans) was going after TEA Party enthusiasts at a Chicago rally, suggesting they were stupid and irrational (no objective reporting there).

Eugene Robinson of the Washington Post: “The danger of political violence in this country comes overwheminly from one direction – the right, not the left.  The vitriolic, anti-government hate speech that is spewed on talk radio every day – and, quite regurlarly, at TEA Party rallies – is calibrated not to inform but to incite.”

MSNBC’s Ed Shutlz (I KNOW NOTHING!!!): “I believe that the TEA Partiers are misguided.  I think they are racist, for the most part.  I think that they are clinging to their guns and their religion.  And I think in many respects, they are what’s wrong with America.”

Actress Janeane Garofalo: “This is about hating a black man in the White House. This is racism straight up.  There are nothing but a bunch of tea-bagging readnecks.”

Comedian Bill Maher: “the teabaggers, they’re not a movement, they’re a cult.”

Democratic strategist Stece McMahon: “The reason people walk into schools and open fire is because of rhetoric like this and because of attitudes like this.  The reason people walk onto military bases and open fire is because of rhetoric like this and attitudes like this.  Really, what they’re doing is not that much different that what Osama bin Laden is doing in recruiting people and encouraging them to hate America.”

Chris Mathews claimed that the TEA Partiers are all “monochromatic” and “all white”.  A quick look and amateur and profession videos at rallies quickly proved this talking point wrong.

However, a Washington Post/ABC poll found that 14% of voters say the TEA Party is “most in synch” with their values; 20% say TEA Partiers are “most in tune with economic problems Americans are now facing”.

A most interesting poll came from TargetPoint Consulting which interviewed 500 attendees at the April 15, 2010 Tax Rally in DC Here are some of the results:

The TEA Partiers are united on the issues of debt, the growth of government, and health care reform

They are socially conservative on the one hand and libertarian on the other, split roughly down the middle.

They are older, more educated, and more conservative that average voters and they are “distinctly not Democrat”.

This brings us to the present day.  The President’s approval ratings are low and getting lower and Congressional Democrats are the lowest and getting worse.  Members of his party are running away from him (as seen in the November elections with declines of his speaking at their rallies).  Now with the debate on the debt limit, Americans are seeing that the Republicans have presented plans while the Democrats and the President have presented NONE.  The only thing liberal Democrats and their drones can do is continue to attack the GOP and the TEA party candidates who won in November who are doing what their constituents want – lower spending and reduce the size of the budget with has grown over 25% in just two years.  There is no way you can convince anyone that there a no room for cuts.  The liberal drones continue with their attacks of racism.  Andrew Brietbart has offered anyone who can prove racism at a TEA party rally with a cash reward.  With all the amateur and professional videos out there NOT A SINGLE ONE has captured anything close to the looney left’s claims (of course, the left now claims criticizing the Presidents failed policies is racism).

The Democrats are out of new ideas.  They continue to tout the same old ones that have failed time and again – more spending and more taxes.  When the President says we must live within our means he is not talking of cutting spending to match revenues, but raising taxes in hopes of raising revenues to match spending.  His mishandling of this debt limit and lack of leadership is showing among his Twitter followers (losing 30,000) and elsewhere, his support continues to dwindle.

When President Obama spoke before the United Nations General Assembly in September 2009, he declared that a world order that elevates one country or group of countries over others is bound to fail.  So he’s changing the order.  If his domestic policy priority is the redistribution of wealth, his foreign policy seems to be the redistribution of power.  The TEA Party has members of every race and creed is continuing to gain momentum and returning the conversation to limited government in scope and power.